Daily write-up - Jan 15th

There are NH meetings today at Wincanton, Market Rasen and Ludlow in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland…

It’s always difficult to know how best to play things on a day like today…

Last night, the expectation was that todays card at Wincanton would be lost to the weather. Consequently, I was disinclined to put too much time into it, despite there being some very interesting looking races.

That said, I did have a quick look through all the fields – and checked out the horses I was particularly interested in (just in case the meeting did go ahead).

It was a slightly different situation at Ludlow and Market Rasen.

I expected those two meetings to go ahead - but the racing isn’t as interesting – and there is also huge uncertainty over the ground  (and even the make up of the fields, due to non runners).

There was nothing at either meeting that compelled me to tip it…

I did come close to a tip at Thurles – but the price has gone on the horse, so I’ve made it a Top Pick instead !

On a different subject, I think that there might be one or two email problems again…

I use a distribution list to send things out – and include my personal BT email address in it (so I can check that things have been sent OK).

For the past couple of days, I’ve not received anything – and yesterday, one of you sent me an email to say the same thing.
He is also on BT – and I’m getting email delivery failure messages for someone else on BT.

In short, I suspect there might be an issue with me sending emails to BT accounts…

Currently there are about half a dozen of you using BT accounts.

I’ve no idea whether you are receiving my emails – but if you use it, I would be grateful if you could confirm that things are working OK.

I’m always conscious that email is the only way I have to contact you all (that came home to me when I experienced the internet problem in November).

If you do have any issues and are struggling to get hold of me, I suggest that you either use the contact form on the TVB website – or post a comment on the private blog.

I may not see it immediately, but I check the blog every few days…

Anyway, on to my thoughts on the day – the rationale behind the tip, the Top Pick and a whole load of mentions !!

Wincanton

2:05

In a race where I am happy to take on most of the field, I am hopeful that Ultragold can reward a small interest…

He threatened to be a smart horse last season, but never managed to fulfil his apparent promise.

On numerous occasions, he travelled well through his race, without quite getting home.

He was given a breathing operation over the summer, so it was significant that he was able to make an impressive winning debut at Exeter in December.

At the time, I marked him down as a horse who could really go through the ranks this season, so it was a little disappointing to see him well beaten next time out at Chepstow.

That said, Chepstow in the mud, is a law unto itself, so it may be best to ignore that run (which wasn’t that bad – just not as good as expected).

Certainly if he can pick up the thread from his Exeter win, then I think he will make them all go this afternoon.

Of his rivals, then Trickaway is the one that I fear most.
He was a good winner for us last time and appears on a upward curve.

Against that, the handicapper has given him a few more pounds to carry – and he is up in class this afternoon.

He may prove up to the job – but he is short enough in the circumstances.

Him aside, I am happy to take on all of the others, on the grounds of trip, handicap rating or form – suggesting that 11/2 on Ultragold is a decent enough price to warrant getting involved.

0.5pt win Ultragold 11/2

In the opener on the card (1:30) Geton Xmoor was the one I was potentially interested in…

He refused to settle on his handicap debut at Chepstow – but still showed a fair amount of ability.

I guess it might be a similar story today – but if he can be restrained and if he can handle the heavy ground, I would expect him to run a big race.

In fact, at 20/1 I was half tempted to take a chance on him – but the top 2 horses in the handicap do appear to be on a steep upward curve, so I suspect he might only be running for place money…

Handy Andy is the one who interests me most, in the handicap chase at 2:35.

I thought he ran a huge race in the Welsh National last time out, looking as likely as anything jumping the fourth last fence, before weakening out of things from that point.

In all probability he didn’t quite stay the marathon trip – but over 2 furlongs shorter today, he has to be of interest off a 1lb lower mark.

However, there are a couple of issues with him: firstly, whether he will have recovered from such a gruelling race; and secondly the presence of a number of strong rivals.

There aren’t any in the race that could be safely discounted, which makes the 13/2 price on Handy Andy tight enough…

There is another interesting race at 3:40, in which most of the field can be given a chance…

Toowomba was impressive last week at Leicester and will be hard to beat under a penalty.

However, at the prices, I would be more inclined to side with fellow bottom weight, Judge Davis.
He ran well behind Trickaway last time, and if he can handle todays ground, then a price of 13/2 might look generous…

Ludlow

The most interesting race on the Ludlow card is the handicap chase at 1:55.

It has an open look to it, but I might be inclined to take a chance on Roll the Dice – if his price was a bit bigger.

Despite not winning, he’s been in tremendous form this season and even though his hands mark keeps rising, I think he may be able to defy it.

That said, he clearly doesn’t have much in hand of his mark (if anything !) so will need to be at the top of his game if he is to prevail.

Consequently a price of 4/1 looks a bit too short to get involved with…

In the mares novice chase at 3:00, I could be half tempted by Lily Waugh…

I don’t think she stays any further than 2m4f, so that trip on a sharp track like Ludlow, should be ideal for her.

That said, she was inferior to 4 of her rivals over hurdles, so she has a bit of improving to do if she is going to master them today.

I think she might be up to that – and I think 6/1 is a reasonable price. But probably no more than that…

Market Rasen

Just the one race of interest at the Lincolnshire track: the handicap chase at 3:20…

I was half tempted to take a risk on Kingcora in this – but I‘ve had second thoughts…

I certainly think a case can be made for him being reasonably handicapped: whilst he should have no issue with the trip or ground.

6/1 is a perfectly fair price – but I just worry about his rivals…

Ultimatum Du Roy won this race last year, off a mark just 3lb lower; whilst Canuspotit was backed as if connections felt he was a well handicapped horse, when making his seasonal debut over the course on Boxing day.

It’s not easy to completely dismiss his 3 others rivals either, so with additional concerns over his jumping, he’ll just have to be a mention…

Thurles

The race of the day, is the Kinloch Brae chase, due off at 2:45…

Champagne Fever or Don Cossack – that is the question.

I’m a big fan of both – and honestly wouldn’t want to pick between the two.

With completely different running styles, I think it could come down to who gets the best ride.

Ruby will try and make it on Champagne Fever; with Bryan Cooper looking to apply pressure, on Don Cossack.

In simple terms, I think the race is Champagne Fevers to lose. If Ruby gets everything right (and he normally does), I would expect Champagne Fever to win.
That said, the margin for error is small – and I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of Paul Carberry and Texas Jack spoiling the party, if Don Cossack does force Champagne Fever to go a stride faster than he should (thereby leaving both the main protagonists vulnerable at the end).

It should be a fascinating race, whatever the outcome.

In the previous race on the card, I wanted to tip Horendus Hulabaloo.

He was a big eye catcher in the better race than this, at the Leopardstown Christmas festival.

With the hood back on today and him likely to relish the heavy ground, he should take all the beating - particularly as it’s not easy to find anything to oppose him with…

The early 3/1 was tempting (if we could have got it !): even the current 9/4 looks fair enough.

I’m going to make him a Top Pick and hope that thing pan out as I believe they should…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Wincanton 2:05 Ultragold 0.5pt win 11/2

 

Mentions

 

Wincanton 1:30 Geton Xmoor (O )

Wincanton 2:35 Handy Andy (C )

Wincanton 3:40 Judge Davis (O )

Ludlow 1:55 Roll the Dice (P )

Ludlow 3:00 Lily Waugh (O )

Market Rasen 3:20 Kingcora (O )

 

Top Picks

 

Thurles 2:10 Horendus Hulabaloo