Daily write-up - Jan 19th

Bangor was lost to the frost this morning, but Exeter passed its third inspection and racing goes ahead there…

It’s very difficult at this time of the year, as there is so much uncertainly…

Will the racing will go ahead ?; and if it does, what he ground will be like and how many non-runners will there be ? – and that’s before you start trying to figure out what will win a particular race !

That said, there are a couple of horse running this afternoon, which I’ve been keeping an eye on.

They were both at good prices this morning (and still are !), so I felt it was reasonable to take a risk on them.

Here’s the rationale…

Exeter

2:20

Waldorf Salad has always looked a 3 mile chaser in waiting – and for the first time today, the gets 3 miles over fences…

He is a huge horse and had shown absolutely nothing until finishing third in the mud in a handicap hurdle at Taunton, last December.

He followed that up with a couple of wins in desperate ground – the first at Huntingdon and the second back at Taunton.

The latter win was so impressive, it resulted in his handicap mark shooting up from 107 to 125.

That was always likely to signal the end of his hurdling career – and so it proved…

He’s run 5 times over hurdles since then, but I’m pretty sure that connections were just working on his mark, aiming to get him down to a rating where he could be competitive over fences.

And sure enough, the handicapper has played ball and he gets to run today off a mark of 115 – just 8lb higher than his Taunton win.

I’ve little doubt that, in the fullness of time, he will prove significantly better than todays mark – though I’m not quite as confident that his rise up the ranks will start today.

That said, if connections had wanted to just get him some chasing experience, they could have run him in a conditions race rather than a handicap.

I’m therefore hoping that he will be running today, with every intention of winning.

I suspect the market will advise us before the off – but I figured he was worth a risk at a big price.

One thing is for sure, then if todays not the day, I strongly suspect we will be on him next time…

0.25pt win Waldorf Salad 16/1

2:50

I’ve been waiting since the start of the season, for Jackies Solitaire to return to hurdles, and it happens this afternoon.

However, I didn’t expect her to be running over 2 miles – or in a race with a number of potential big improvers.

My expectation was that she would be running in a 2m4f race against exposed types and she would be a cracking bet at 4/1 – the conditions of todays race gave me a bit of a dilemma…

In terms of why I fancy her at all, then simply, I think she is a very well handicapped mare (off a mark of 112).

She finished seventh in the Fred Winter hurdle at the 2013 Cheltenham festival off a mark of 125.

Switched to fences the season before last, she managed to get her rating up to 130.

She was poor last season (when he stable was hit by a bug) which resulted in her mark dropping to an attractive point.

She really caught my eye first time out this season, when she finished third in a fair chase at Chepstow off a mark of 120.

I expected her to go on from that, but it’s just not happened…

However, all of her races this season have been over fences – and I’m sure she is a better mare over hurdles.

I’m not quite so sure that she wants a 2 mile trip – but the application of cheek pieces for the first time today (plus a tongue tie), suggest to me that connections know what they are doing (I like to see the application of head gear coupled with a reduction in trip, as it tends to make horses race more keenly).

My issue with todays race, is therefore the opposition…

I think Jackies Solitaire has been very unlucky to bump into 2 or 3 potential improvers, in the shape of Queen of the Stage, Miss Sassypants and Pitter Patter.

You wouldn’t normally expect to find as many potentially big improvers in a class 4 race.
That said, those 3 all help make the market (there is no way Jackies Solitaire would be a 16/1 shot in an average class 4 race) and there is a god chance that at least one of them won’t fulfil it’s potential.

If that happens then Jackies Solitaire becomes the sort of the price to place, that I would have expected her to be to win, in a race such as this – and we still have the win part of the bet as a potential bonus !

0.25pt EW Jackies Solitaire 16/1

In the following race on the card, I would expect Somchine to follow up his last time out Wincanton win.

That was achieved in a better class race than todays – and he only got a 5lb rise for it.

Todays opposition doesn’t look overly strong and 9/4 looks a fair enough price (if a bit too short for tipping).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Early

Exeter 2:20 Waldorf Salad 0.25pt win 16/1

Exeter 2:50 Jackies Solitaire 0.25pt EW 16/1

Late

None

Mentions

Exeter 3:20 Somchine (P )

Top Picks

None