Daily write-up - Jan 17th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Ascot, Haydock and Taunton in the UK - plus Naas in Ireland…

As Saturdays go, today is a bit disappointing…

The obvious high-light is the return to action of Sprinter Sacre in the Clarence House chase at Ascot – but that was never going to be a betting race…

Similarly, up at Haydock, the star attraction is The New One, but his presence makes the Champion hurdle trial a betting non event…

The supporting races on both cards are also quite low key, with small, uncompetitive fields the order of the day.

There are 3 decent handicaps on channel 4 this afternoon, and I’ve had a go at each of them. But they are all very tricky, so I think we’ll need a bit of luck to come out on top.

Just a quick word on tomorrow…

There are a couple of very valuable races taking place at Leopardstown.

I have no doubt that Tom Segal (Pricewise) will be on to them, so if we want get a price on anything, we will need to act early.

Consequently, I’ll open the tipping window at 6:00 this evening, which should enable us to get ahead of the game (assuming I can find a suitable selection or two).

Anyway, that’s tomorrow – we’ve got to get today out of the way first !!

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Haydock

3:15

This looks like a very open race, but I’m hopeful that Green Flag can give us a good run for our money…

He was a very decent novice last season, finishing second in the Grade 1 Feltham novice chase at the Kempton Christmas meeting, before switching his attention to non novice events, at the spring festivals.

A fourth place behind Holywell at the Cheltenham festival was followed by a sixth place in the Scottish Grand national.

Both were excellent runs for a novice – particularly as they were achieved on ground a bit quicker than Green Flag would really want.

He was put away for the summer after Ayr and reappeared in an intermediate chase at Carlisle in November, when he ran a cracker over a trip that would have been too short for him.

His next race was the Becher chase at Aintree, but he ran disappointingly there, appearing not to take to the National fences. I think that run can be ignored.

However those latest runs have seen Green Flag dropped a few pounds in the handicap and he gets in off a mark of 140 today – just 2lb higher than the mark he won from at Newcastle in November 2013.

I suspect his current mark under-states his ability by quite a few pounds.

There is no reason why he shouldn’t run his race this afternoon and I expect him to go very close.

In fairness, he does face some decent rivals today: Shangani could prove very dangerous on the heavy ground; whilst Hey Big Spender also has to be feared (despite being 12 years old and on a handicap mark of 154) – however neither have the scope of Green Flag.

0.5pt win Green Flag 7/1

In the opener on the Haydock card, I think veteran Barafundle might be able to get the better of Kingswell Theatre (who is 5 years his junior !). However, a best price of 7/2 isn’t going to lure me in…

I could see Cogry running a fair race in the novice chase at 12:55 – but he really shouldn’t be good enough to get the better of Close Touch (or even Colour Squadron).

The New One should prove himself a class apart from his rivals in the Champion hurdle trial at 2:05 – but has been priced up accordingly: whilst the graduation chase should be between Third Intention and novice Carrig Mor. At the prices (9/4), Third Intention would hold the greater appeal…

Ascot

2:25

In a race where there are plenty of imponderables, I think it is worth taking a small chance on Abracadabra Sivola…

He was the surprise winner of the Victor Ludorum hurdle at Haydock last February, when he coped admirably with gruelling conditions and managed to get the better of Aurore D’Estruval. That day, he gave 2lb to a horse now rated 147 – and based purely on that piece of form, he has an outstanding chance this afternoon…

That said, there is a chance that the Haydock run flatters him: his subsequent runs over fences in France, haven’t shown him in anywhere near the same light – and whilst he did perform better on his return to hurdles in the UK, he will need to improve on that third to Kilcooley, if he is to feature today.

However, he may just be capable of doing that. He is still only a 5 year old and so should have plenty of scope for improvement.

Of his rivals, then whilst Garde Le Victoire sets a decent standard, I’m not convinced that he wants 2m4f in the mud. That is probably exactly what Baradari wants -  but he still has a bit to prove form wise and is short enough in the betting.

It’s almost impossible to get a proper handle on the ex-French Le Mercurey and Willem; whilst neither Lyvius or Rayvin Black (who is 6lb out of the handicap) look particularly well treated, to me…

In short, it’s not an easy race to get a grip on – but instinctively, I feel that Abracadabra Sivola has a chance – and is a few points too big in the betting…

0.25pt win Abracadabra Sivola 9/1

3:35

Another very competitive race, but one where I am quite happy to take a risk on Ackertac at a big price.

Based on recent form, his chance isn’t obvious – but if you go back through his form, he has run races which suggest he is very well handicapped today.

He has run very well at the past 4 Cheltenham festivals – particularly when runner up in the novice handicap chase at the 2013 festival, off a mark of 137 (he runs off a mark of 133 today).

He was sporting blinkers for the first time that day – so it’s interesting to see him in a first time visor today.

Ackertac has also run some very good races when the ground is soft (as it is today).
His best recent run, was when second to Kapga de Cerisy in the soft at Kempton last November. That run came off a mark of 147.

Similarly it was soft when he beat Vino Griego over todays course in November 2012…

His recent form is a bit of a worry – though he showed distinct promise on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot in October, behind Johns Spirit.

In addition to the first time visor, it also strikes me as significant that Richard Johnson takes over in the saddle today from 7lb claimer Alan Johns.

Both changes suggest that connections are going for it.

Ofcourse, even if that is the case, then there is no guarantee that Acketac will be good enough to win.

This is a strong race, in which Venetias two representatives, Niceonefrankie and Tenor Nivernais, plus Ballinvarig and Bobcatbully can all be given good chances.

However, I do feel that Acketac can also be given a chance - and unlike the others, he has been missed in the betting.

In the circumstances, he was one of the easier tips to issue today…

0.25pt win Acketac 20/1

The high-light of day, is without doubt the reappearance on Sprinter Sacre in the 3:00 race.

There’s not a lot I can say about Sprinter Sacre that’s not been said already.

I just hope that he’s back to his brilliant best.

As I’ve said before, the game needs its super stars – and he was a super star.

Fingers crossed he still is…

In the mares hurdle at 1:50, I was sorely tempted to take a risk on Land of Vic…

However, it’s a very tight race, and whilst there might be some margin in her price of 5/1, against at least 4 good rivals, that margin is pretty small.

The application of cheek pieces looks at interesting move and if they do elicit some improvement, she should go very close…

Village Vic is the one that interests me most in the novice handicap chase at 1:15…

However Traffic Fluid and Kings Lad both look dangerous, so a best price of 3/1 wasn’t particularly tempting…

Taunton

2:15

This is not a race I can be confident about, but I am hopeful that Castarnie might reward a speculative interest.
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut in a fair handicap hurdle at Plumpton.

That race was run in desperate ground and, on his handicap debut, Castarnie led the field to the home turn.

The eventual first and second quickened past him at that point (and impeded him slightly) but he ran on for pressure to finish a very creditable third.

The winner has won again subsequently, so the form of the race looks good.

Castarnie himself, has since made his chasing debut, behind the top class Saphir De Rheu at Exeter. Unsurprisingly he was not in that league and was ultimately pulled up. However the run served the purpose of getting him a bit of experience jumping fences, so was of some merit.

Today he is back into a handicap – and running of the same mark that he ran off at Plumpton. He also has cheek pieces re-applied (they were on when he ran at Plumpton – but absent last time).

It’s difficult to be adamant that he is well handicapped – but my feeling is that he might be…

It is also difficult to get a handle on all of his rivals. Bang on Time is favourite, on the back of a last time out win at Wincanton, he may prove troublesome off a mark just 5lb higher; there are also 2 or 3 others, who are completely unexposed over fences and could show significant improvement over them.

That said, Castarnie falls into that category – and he has already shown ability over hurdles.

He represents a stable that I like – and is jockey Felix De Giles’ only ride of the day.

Let’s hope his journey to Taunton proves worthwhile

0.25pt win Castarnie 10/1

Whispering Harry should take the beating in the novice handicap chase at 3:25 – but he looks short enough at 3/1. In the same race, Softsong could potentially be interesting – and is a much bigger price, even if he is fraught with risk !

Finally, in 3:55, The Italian Yob might well be able to capitalise on his falling handicap mark. He ran with much more promise last time at Chepstow and if he can build on that, he is handicapped to win.

However, I would be more inclined to take a small risk on As de Fer, who is also potentially very well handicapped if he can rediscover his form – and is available to back at a general 20/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Early

Haydock 3:15 Green Flag 0.5pt win 7/1

Ascot 2:25 Abracadabra Sivola 0.25pt win 9/1

Ascot 3:35 Acketac 0.25pt win 20/1

Taunton 2:15 Castarnie 0.25pt win 10/1

Late

None

Mentions

Haydock 12:20 Barafundle (P )

Haydock 2:40 Third Intention (P )

Ascot 1:15 Village Vic (O )

Ascot 1:50 Land of Vic (O )

Taunton 3:25 Softsong (S )

Taunton 3:55 As de Fer (S )

Top Picks

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