Daily write-up - Jan 10th

There are 4 NH meetings today: in the UK at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby – and in Ireland, at Punchestown.

How nice it is to see some good racing again. 4 decent cards – and markets that I was able to tip in to.

It’s how racing & tipping should be !

I’ve adopted my now familiar approach, of spreading around relatively high-risk selections. It’s a long term strategy, but hopefully we will be lucky enough to hit on one (or two ?!) winners today.

Here are my thoughts of the afternoons action:

Kempton

2:40

As you would expect, this looks a very competitive heat.

The right horses seem to be at the top of the market, with Hello George, Tea for Two and Warrantor all having extremely strong claims.

Of the 3, I would be most interested in Tea for Two – and with a couple more points on his price, he would have been a tip.

However, in a race where at least 3 have excellent chances – and 3 more have very good chances, there is little margin in a quote of 6/1…

Instead, I’ve taken a bit of a flyer and gone for a huge outsider in the shape of Ballybough Pat.

He’s not run for nearly 2 years – and he’s changed trainers in the meantime, but based on the best of his form from the 2012-13 season, he would have an outstanding chance today.

He was a novice back then, and his victory over African Gold - plus defeats to Wonderful Charm and Taquin Du Seuil marked him out as one of the best novices of that season.

He also showed decent handicap form, including a second placing to Fair Along at Newbury, off a mark of 132.

He gets to run today off a mark of 129, so clearly is handicapped to go well – provided he is fit.

And that has to be a big concern, with him being off the track for so long.
That said, nowadays, huge absences aren’t so much of a worry – particularly when big prizes are at stake (as is the case here).

It’s reasonable to assume that this has been Ballybough Pats target for quite a while – and the booking of crack apprentice, Jamie Bargery, certainly catches the eye…

There is no doubt he is a risky one – and I think we need the market to speak in his favour, close to the off.

However, if it does, then we have a very well handicapped horse, competing in ideal conditions – with a top claiming jockey on board.

A 33/1 shot – I don’t think so !!

0.25pt win Ballybough Pat 33/1

3:15

Both Via Sundown and Ardkilly Witness ran in the same race at Ascot, last time out.

We were on Via Sundown that day and he ran a perfectly creditable race to finish sixth.

Up with the pace throughout, he just wasn’t quite good enough to really put it up to some very decent rivals.

However, the handicapper has dropped him 4lb for that run – and todays rivals aren’t as strong (this is a class 2 race, compared to class 1 last time).

At 7 years old, Via Sundown is the youngest horse in the field so likely to have the most scope for improvement.

His price of 12/1 looked generous enough to warrant a small risk…

Strictly on the book, he has the beating of Ardkilly Witness (who finished well behind him in the Ascot race) – but I suspect it might not be as straightforward as that…

Ardkilly Witness was very well backed in that extremely competitive race (went off 9/2) – and looked to have everything in trouble down the back straight.

However, he didn’t get home that day and jockey Tom Scudamore suggested the horse might have breathing issues.

It is therefore interesting to see that a tongue tie has been applied today (and the visor dispensed with).

I’m not a huge fan of tongue ties (as they suggest physical issues) – but I suspect that if it works today, Ardkilly Witness could prove a very well handicapped horse.

Of the others, then Al Alfa is probably the one that worries me most – though it does look quite an open contest.

Because of that, I think it makes sense to go with a couple of horses at good prices, who have both got decent chances.

0.25pt win Via Sundown 12/1

0.25pt win Ardkilly Witness 8/1

3:45

Whitby Jack is another speculative one – but one I felt worthy of a small risk…

A bit like Ballybough Pat, he’s not seen the race course for quite some time (nearly 400 days) – but is exceptionally well handicapped, if ready to do himself justice…

That statement is borne out by the fact that he comfortably won this very race, 2 years ago, off a mark of 119. He gets to run today off a mark of 115 – and has a 10lb claimer in the saddle. If connections want today to be the day, then he could hack up…

Ofcourse, we are guessing with that one – but whilst the horse has never won after a long absence, he has gone close.

Doubtless the market will once again advise on his chances, near to the off…

Things are complicated slightly by the presence in the race, of his stable mate, The Green Ogre, however, the one I fear most, is First Mohican…

I put him up as a Top Pick at Doncaster last time, and he still had a chance of wining, when he fell at the last.

In truth, his hurdling is a concern – as is very soft ground. Against that, I suspect he is also very well handicapped…

Let’s hope Whitby Jack can take his measure this afternoon.

0.25pt win Whitby Jack 10/1

Warwick

1:55

This looks an open race, in which all of the runner can be given a chance of some sort – but I have a feeling that Grand Vision may have been under-estimated a little…

He is a horse whose career has been interrupted by injury, but who has shown on a few occasions, that when he is one his game, he is a very decent animal.

A third in the Albert Bartlett at the 2012 Cheltenham festival was the high light of his novice campaign over hurdles – but he then wasn’t seen on the track until last January.

A disappointing run at the Cheltenham new years day meeting was followed up by an excellent second at this meeting, in the Pertemps qualifier.

That run came from a mark of 140, which in the context of todays race (accepting he is now running over fences) puts him right in the mix…

Grand Vision switched to fences at the start of this season and despite what his form figures suggest, he has shown significant promise.

He should have won on his seasonal debut, but over-jumped at Haydock and crumpled on landing.

Next time out at Uttoxeter, he looked likely to win, but tired up the home straight. He maybe still needed that run.

Last time at Ascot, he ran in a very hot race, and it soon became apparent that going right handed didn’t suit him. In the circumstances, his third pacing wasn’t without merit…

My feeling is that todays track and ground will really play to Grand Visions strengths.

He’s a free going sort, who generally jumps well – and has a preference for going left handed.

I can see him really taking to the Warwick track, with its cluster of fences down the back straight.

Certainly if he can get into a rhythm, then I think it will take a good one to pass him.

That’s not to say that there isn’t a good one in the race – but I think in terms of ability, then Grand Vision is capable of being a match for all of the other runners.

Let’s hope that things pan out well for him this afternoon.

0.5pt win Grand Vision 12/1

3:35

The one thing that strikes me about this race, is the amount of potential pace there is in it…

Benbane Head, Cadeaux George, Tales of Milan and Carruthers, all like to make the running.

All things being equal, then I would expect to see Carruthers set off in front and there is no doubt that the Warwick track plays to his strengths (in the same way I hope it will play to Grand Vision). I was half tempted by him – but in the face of potential pace war, 8/1 on a 12 year old horse who doesn’t always want to start his races, had limited appeal...

Instead, I’ve opted to split stakes between a very solid option and a more risky one.

The solid option is Hawkes Point.

Beaten a head into second in last seasons Welsh National, he amazingly gets to run off a mark 3lb lower today.

The suggestion is that he must have run really poorly in his 4 subsequent runs – but that just isn’t the case.

He ran well enough at Haydock last February and again on his seasonal debut at Chepstow.

It strikes me that the handicapper has been lenient with him.

When you add into the mix the fact he is trained by Paul Nicholls, and that he wears blinkers for the first time today, he was impossible to resist at 14/1 (as Pricewise later confirmed !).

The more speculative option is Peckhamecho…

Depending on how you choose to look at him, he‘s either got a great chance - or no chance !

On the one hand, he has run and jumped poorly on his 5 previous attempts over fences – and has never run over a marathon trip before in his life. Based on this, the suggestion is that he has virtually no chance…

On the other hand, he dotted up off a mark 1lb higher than todays in a handicap hurdle at Aintree earlier in the season and is now rated 12lb higher over the smaller obstacles than he runs off today. Furthermore, the only time he encountered heavy ground, he ran a huge race – and whilst he has never tackled a marathon trip, there is a possibility that he might improve for it.

Based on this, the suggestion is that he has a big chance !

Certainly, in a race where Paul Moloney should be able to sit in behind and pick off rivals, I can see a scenario where (provided he jumps OK !) he comes there swinging in the straight.

Let’s hope either the solid option or the speculative one, come good this afternoon !

0.25pt win Hawkes Point 14/1

0.25pt win Peckhamecho 25/1

Earlier on the Warwick card, I wanted to be with Upepito in the handicap chase at 1:20 – but I just worry about his jumping over the Warwick fences…

In truth, I also worry about some of his rivals (Great Link and Rio De Sivola to name two), so on balance, I decided it was a race best swerved…

In the Pertemps qualifier at 2:25, I think Big Hands Harry is the most interesting one.

He’s not really taken to fences, so I suspect he will appreciate a return to hurdles.

That said, it’s an open looking race  - and 13/2 is not a massive price.
I’m happy for him to just be a mention…

Punchestown

The two handicap chases on the Punchestown card are the races that caught my attention…

In the first of them (1:15) I was sorely tempted to tip Pencilhimin (and maybe make him a Top Pick).
I can’t even say that I thought the 11/4 on offer wasn’t generous – I think it was.

The bottom line is, if he jumps round OK, he should win.

That said, his jumping is a worry – and whilst I feel he should be different class to his rivals, there are 4 or 5 in the race that I know are capable of performing above the level they have shown.

It was a tough call – and one I might not have got right – but I figured at the prices, I could just about afford to let him win un-tipped !

The next race on the card looks between the market leaders: On the Shannon and Vasco Du Mee.

The former has been running consistently well – but his style of racing is likely to set things up for Vasco Du Mee.
Again, at bigger odds, I would have been tempted to get involved, but 7/2 against Vasco Du Mee doesn’t leave a lot of margin for getting things wrong…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Kempton 2:40 Ballybough Pat 0.25pt win 33/1

Kempton 3:15 Via Sundown 0.25pt win 12/1

Kempton 3:15 Ardkilly Witness 0.25pt win 8/1

Kempton 3:45 Whitby Jack 0.25pt win 10/1

Warwick 1:55 Grand Vision 0.5pt win 12/1

Warwick 3:35 Peckhamecho 0.25pt win 25/1

Warwick 3:35 Hawkes Point 0.25pt win 14/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Warwick 1:20 Upepito (C )

Warwick 2:25 Big Hands Harry (O )

Punchestown 1:15 Pencilhimin (C )

Punchestown 1:50 Vasco Du Mee (P )

 

Top Picks

 

None