Daily write-up - Jan 24th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Navan in Ireland.

The Cheltenham and Doncaster cards offer some really top class action – and whilst I did have a quick look at the two other meetings, there was nothing at either one that particularly caught my eye.

There was plenty at both Cheltenham and Doncaster to catch my eye – but turning them into tips, was a different matter…

I hope, that by opening the tipping window early on a Friday evening, I might be able to secure us the odd bit of value – but that was virtually impossible last night.

I had fancies in a couple of the Cheltenham handicaps (2:25 and 4:10) – but the markets were so volatile early evening, I didn’t feel comfortable tipping into either one (simply, very few of you would have got acceptable prices).

Consequently, I had to watch prices evaporate in the same way they often do during the midweek – very frustrating….

Consequently we have been left with just 3 tips on the day – but one of them is a biggy !

I’ve also previewed most of the races at the 2 meeting and there are plenty of mentions which you can do with as you please (if you need a bit more action on a Saturday !)…

Here is the rationale for todays tips – and my other thoughts.

Cheltenham

1:15

When I looked at this race yesterday evening, there were 3 horses I was interested in: Stella Notion, Ned Stark and Astigos.

With the first 2 named heading the market, I was always likely to be drawn to Astigos…

He caught my eye last time out at Newbury, in the race won by Gevrey Chambertin.

We were on the winner that day, and I recall being very concerned by the ominous way Astigos was moving as the field entered the home straight.

Thankfully, he didn’t quite get home that day, so in the circumstances a half mile drop in trip today, has to make him of real interest.

That said, we were on him on his previous run at Ascot, when he seemed to need at least 3 miles, so the horse is sending out a few mixed messages !

However, both runs do suggest that Astigos is handicapped to be competitive, off a mark of 118 today.

I guess that just being competitive might not be good enough, with Stella Notion in the field – but on the flip side, you can invariably count on Venetia to eek out a few pounds improvement when it really matters…

Of the others in the race, then top weight Caroles Destrier is a potential danger – provided you ignore his last time out run in the mud at Chepstow; whilst Mosspark is another with potential – if the first time visor perks him up sufficiently.

However, the withdrawal of Ned Stark early this morning, gives me increased optimism that Astigos may be able to come home in front.

0.25pt win Astigos 10/1

3:00

I’m a big fan of the Skeltons, but my instinctive feeling is that Value at Risk has been put in much too short for this, at just 6/4…

He’s that price on the back of an impressive win in a novice hurdle at Newbury – but what that form actually amounts to, is anybodies guess.

He may well prove to be a world beater in the fullness of time – and his bumper form was certainly very good – but as things currently stand he still has a lot to prove and 6/4 is an extremely short price.

The question was, which one to take him on with…

With second favourite, Present View using this primarily as a prep for later targets over fences, Robinsfrith probably sets the standard

However, he is one of three that Colin Tizzard saddles in the race - and that alone, puts me off him a bit.

Stilleto was a possibility – even though it’s impossible to get a handle on how good he might be, but instead I’ve opted for Ordo ab Chao.

Following wins in a couple of uncompetitive novice hurdles at Huntington, he contested a similar race to today’s, last time out at Sandown.

He was sent off a 7/2 shot that day and looked sure to play a big part in the finish, rounding the home turn. However, he didn’t get home in the very soft ground and ultimately finished well beaten.

If his issue was a lack of stamina or a breathing problem, then he’s unlikely to win today – however, if it was just down to the ground (or a on-off problem), then I think he has every chance of going close this afternoon at a pretty big price.

0.25pt win Ordo ab Chao 20/1

The Cotswold Chase (as us traditionalists will always call it !) is due off at 1:55, and is as intriguing a race as you’ll see all season…

Victory for any of the 6 contenders wouldn’t come as a major surprise – and whoever wins will likely be promoted to second or third favourite for the Gold cup.

As I’ve tipped Dynsaste on the ante-post blog, I am hoping he can come good today.

Victory will almost certainly see him going for the Gold cup (as opposed to the Ryanair chase) – so it will keep that dream alive for a few more weeks.

And I think it is quite feasible that he will win today – certainly, if he doesn’t, he won’t be winning the big one. However, I also think it quite feasible that any of the other 5 could win.

At the prices, course specialist, The Giant Bolster, is probably the most interesting –though I could also see rank outsider, Theatre Guide, running a much bigger race than his odds imlpy.

The handicap chase at 2:25 is a maddening race !
I could give you good reasons why non of the runners will win – but obviously I would be wrong with one of them !

The 3 I was interested in last night, were Little Jon, Annacotty and Tap Night.
Tap Night opened at 25/1 – and I was committed to 0.25pt on him at that price.

However, he was tipped on the Oddschecker site at 5:30 – and soon 16/1 was the best available price.

At that time, Easter Day was expected to be a NR, so a hefty R4 would also have applied.

I therefore took the decision not to tip him when I opened the window yesterday evening…

Since then, his price has continued to tumble – and you now can’t beat 10/1…

He is undoubtedly very well handicapped - but he has also been horribly out of form (and I would question his ability to jump a fence).
At 16/1+ I would have taken a risk on him: at 10/1 or less, I will be happy to watch him win (I won’t, but you know what I mean !).

Of the others, then both Little Jon and Annacotty also have issues to overcome (jumping and current form).

I don’t see a lot of margin in the prices of either one.

At the current prices, I would be tempted to take a small risk on Easter Meteor.

He’s 16/1 in a couple of places – which is too big, even though he’s not that well handicapped.

All this said, I’m only prepared to change my mind so many times – and I’ve changed it too often on this race.

I’m therefore giving it a miss, officially speaking…

The Cleeve hurdle at 3:35, is another potential minefield…

There are question marks over just about every runner – which makes betting in it, extremely difficult.

Cole Harden sets the standard, but it’s certainly not insurmountable and I would expect either Un Temps Pour Tout or Saphir Du Rheu to be able to surpass it.

That said, neither are at tempting odds to do so…

What I’ll be doing, is backing Olofi pre-race and then laying him back in running rounding the home turn, by which time I would expect the current 28/1 on offer to be nearer 5/1.

Not much good for tipping tho…

In the final race on the card, there are two to be interested in: the solid option, Dell Arca and the potential improver, Diamond King.

However, they are now 3/1 and 4/1 respectively.
I can see no margin in those prices…

Doncaster

3:15

I know this is a very competitive race, but I am extremely keen on the chances of Yes Tom…

Previously trained by Roy Wilson, he has always been a useful horse, and was competitive off a mark in the high 130s for him.

However, he moved to Stuart Crawford in the middle of last season and immediately showed the benefit of that, when dotting up in conditions chase at Down Royal.

He comfortably beat 4 horses rated significantly superior to him that day – suggesting that he had improved markedly for the change of scenery.

In truth, it’s impossible to categorically say that’s the case, as he’s only run twice since then.
The first of those occasions was the Scottish Grand National in which he travelled like a dream, took up the running at the fifth last - but then faded when his stamina gave out.

His other run for Crawford was his seasonal debut this campaign, which was over an unsuitably short trip (2m4f) at Navan.
He was never put into the race that day, but I suspect it had the desired effect of blowing away the cobwebs…

Today Yes Tom gets to run over his ideal distance – and those last two runs have seen his handicap mark drop back to a very workable 136.

He also gets cheek pieces reapplied today – I don’t think he’s going to Doncaster for a day out !

In terms of rivals, then there are plenty who I could see running well – but non that I particularly fear.

Yes Tom is potentially a very good bet indeed…

0.5pt win/0.25pt place Yes Tom 18/1

In the opener on the card, I was half tempted by Goohar.

He ran really well in a better race than todays, when just touched off at Cheltenham – before disappointing 8 days later, in heavy ground at Haydock.

If he can bounce back to his Cheltenham form he has to go close.
However, the presence of the potentially well handicapped Special Wells, concerns me – and there are a few others of interest in the race (Doktor Glaz being one).

On balance then, a bit too tricky to get involved in..

There are a few I’d be prepared to take on in the handicap chase at 1:30 – but I’m still not sure I can find the winner !

I suspect Off the Ground will be working on his handicap mark – whilst a poor performance Sea Beat will almost certainly see his current rating revised down significantly.

I thought Upepito was a shade fortunate to win last time out, and I doubt Kings Grey will be quite up to the job.

That leaves me with 3…

Neither Royal Regatta nor De Boitron look tremendously well handicapped – so Runswick Royal is the most likely winner.
However, he is also favourite – and the race it tight.
No angle there then…

In the mares hurdle at 2:05, I was quite keen to take on the 2 Irish mares that head the market…

I just don’t think they set a particularly high standard (particularly Analifet).

The trouble is, finding one to beat them…

I initially favoured Pass the Time, but I think she has limitations as well.

Instead, I would probably go for the 4 year old, Intense Tango.

She won her last start well and has plenty of potential. I might even be tempted by a forecast with the other 4 year old, Nyanza.

All this said, I don’t feel quite strong enough to make her a tip.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Cheltenham 1:15 Astigos 0.25pt win 10/1

Cheltenham 3:00 Ordo ab Chao 0.25pt win 20/1

Doncaster 3:15 Yes Tom 0.25pt EW 18/1

 

Late

 

Doncaster 3:15 Yes Tom 0.25pt win 18/1

 

Mentions

 

Cheltenham 1:50 The Giant Bolster (O )

Cheltenham 2:25 Tap Night (P )

Cheltenham 4:10 Dell Arca (P )

Doncaster 12:25 Goohar (O )

Doncaster 1:30 Runswick Royal (P )

Doncaster 2:05 Intense Tango (S )

 

Top Picks

 

None