Daily write-up - Jan 22nd

There are 3 NH meetings today, at Warwick and Fakenham in the UK – and Gowran Park in Ireland.

The high light of the day, is the 60K Euro Thystes chase: ‘The race that stops a County’

It made me laugh when I read it ! (you can’t beat a bit of satire !!)

It’s a race that is very close to the hearts of TVB followers, thanks to the glorious victory of Jadanli, 2 years ago (for those of you not with the service at that time, think Emperors Choice in the Welsh National – but better !)

Jadanli is running again today – but at 13 years of age, I could only back him with my heart, not my head.

Instead I’ve split the stakes on the race – and added a couple more tips on the day for good measure.

That makes a total of 4 tips across 3 races - which is a bit surprising, as the days racing is quite poor, considering.

There are barely half a dozen races today that I could even consider tipping in, so to find tips in 3 of them, is quite an achievement !

Here’s my rationale for the tips – and thoughts on a couple of the other races…

Gowran Park

3:15

As you would expect, this is a fiercely competitive race, with the market dominated by the Willie Mullins trained Djakadam and the Tony Martin trained Gallant Oscar.
With Ruby and Barry Gerraghty respectively on board the two horses, I think it’s fair to say that connections are playing a big part in their respective odds.

That’s not to say that both haven’t got big chances – because they have (particularly Djakadam). However, there was no way either horse was ever going to represent any kind of betting value, so I am happy to pass on them both…

If there is a key piece of form for this race, it is likely to be the Paddy Power chase, run at Leopardstown, just after Christmas.

That race was won by Living Next Door, with Foxrock in second place.

The winner of the race has not run since, but the runner up franked the form on Sunday. As 3 mile handicap chase form goes, I suspect it will turn out to be pretty hot..

The Job is Right finished fourth in the Paddy Power. At face value, that was a very decent performance, however, it is made even more meritorious by the fact that it was only his fourth run over fences.

He just about led jumping the last and whilst he ran to the line, he hadn’t got he pace to match the 3 that finished in front of him.

The handicapper raised him 3lb for that run – but he shrugged that off when winning 4 days later.

He’s got another pound as a result of that – but he is clearly on a steep upward curve and a rating of 131 could significantly underestimate his ability.

The other one I want on side is Goonyella.
He also ran in the Paddy Power chase and finished seventh.

However, that finishing position doesn’t flatter him as he was short of room round the home turn.

He is re-united with Jonny Burke this afternoon – and that coupled with the weight rise The Job is Right has received, means he will be meeting that one on 7lb better terms this afternoon.

On the book, there should be precious little between them.

Chances of sorts can be made for plenty of the others – but I’m happy enough with the two we have on side.

Let’s hope that one of them can come home in front this afternoon.

0.25pt win The Job is Right 11/1

0.25pt win Goonyella 12/1

The only other race at Gowran worthy of mention, is the Galmoy hurdle (2:15)…

In receipt of 7lb, the market makes Monksland favourite to beat Briar Hill – but that’s not how I see it…

I can accept that Monksland finished in front of Briar Hill last time out, but I don’t think Briar Hill  ran his race that day.

With Ruby back on board today – and the possibility that Monksland might bounce on his second run back after a long absence, I would be far more inclined to get involved with the Willie Mullins horse.

That said, 9/4 is a price that I can resist without too much difficulty…

Warwick

2:50

Vice et Vertu caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Newbury in November.

He was running that day in a good class handicap over a trip just less than 2m4f.

That was clearly too short for Vice et Vertu, who hadn’t got the tactical speed to go with the leaders when the pace quickened just after half way. However, he stayed on well after the final flight to claim a distant fourth place.
I expected him to be stepped up in trip next time out – and he was - but only by 2 furlongs.

More than that, he ran on quicker ground – and after making the running to the home turn, he again struggled to maintain his place when the pace quickened, before staying on, when the race was over.

As a result of those 2 runs, the handicapped has dropped him 4lb – which enables him to run in a class 3 race this afternoon.

Better still, he is getting a proper stamina test, with a trip of 3m2f and soft ground to contend with.

He’s also got Dickie Johnson back in the saddle, so he is unlikely to want for encouragement to put it all in !
Despite the numbers this isn’t the strongest hurdle race ever run.

That said, Vice et Vertu does face a coupe of in form rivals in the shape of Vision De Coeur and The Tourad Man.
However, those 2 are both climbing the handicap and taking on better class opposition, so will find todays contest tougher than the ones they have run in recently.

In short, I think Vice et Vertu is a decent bet – and one that I have possibly under-staked.

Let’s hope I am ruing that at 3:00 this afternoon ;)

0.25pt win Vice et Vertu 9/1

The market looks to have things about right in the previous race on the card (2:20).

The 3 to concentrate on appear to be Saffran de Cotte, Goodtoknow and Take the Mick.

They have very different strengths/weaknesses, so it’s not easy to compare them.

If I were to bet in the race, I would let the market dictate which one - I would go for the longest in the betting.
That’s currently Take the Mick – but it could easily change by the off…

Fakenham

4:00

I made Zero Visibility a Top Pick last time at Sedgefield – and he let me down.

I’m making him a tip this afternoon – so woe betide him if he does the same again this afternoon !

In fairness, I guess that’s a possibility because the reason I think he disappointed on his latest run, was because he broke a blood vessel.

Clearly, if a horse has done that once, there is a chance he might do it again.

However, the Sedgefield run came just 2 weeks after he had endured a slog in the mud at Taunton.

Generally, horses that burst blood vessel run best when fresh – so I’m hoping that accounts for the issue.

He’s certainly been given long enough to recover today (in excess of 7 weeks) – so if he is beaten, hopefully that won’t be the reason why.

And if that issue doesn’t recur, then I think he has got an outstanding chance ths afternoon, against some decidedly moderate opposition.

The market makes Nouailhas and Nellie the Elegant the two to beat – and I’m more than happy to take them on.

Zero Visibility gets in today off a basement mark of 72 – just 2lb higher than the mark he was successful off at Taunton.

He’s also got Alex Dunne in the saddle – and she did is a few favours last season with Come on Annie.

Let’s hope she can do us another one this afternoon, with Zero Visibility…

0.5pt win Zero Visibility 5/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Warwick 2:50 Vice et Vertu 0.25pt win 9/1

Gowran Park 3:15 The Job is Right 0.25pt win 11/1

Gowran Park 3:15 Goonyella 0.25pt win 12/1

 

Late

 

Fakenham 4:00 Zero Visibility 0.5pt win 5/1

 

Mentions

 

Gowran Park 2:15 Briar Hill (P )

 

Top Picks

 

None