Review of the day

There was no joy with any of the 4 tips running in todays 2 big races, which was a bit disappointing…

We did manage to find the only faller in both of the races – but that wasn’t the double I had in mind !

It was Some Tikket who hit the deck at the third last, in the handicap chase.

He was still moving fine at the time, so it would have been interesting to see how he’d got on.

He’llberemembered never featured in the race, which was quite surprising.

I thought he might not be quite good enough to win – but I also thought he was sure to run his race and be thereabouts…

In accordance with Sods Law, the race was won by Foxrock.

He became the latest in a long line of ex-tips this season, who have come out and won next time.

I’m thinking of creating another service next year, where I send out tips a month late, so subscribers can get on them for their subsequent race !

My concern with Foxrock, was that he would lack tactical pace, dropping back in distance. But that wasn’t an issue at all and he was a cosy winner.

In the handicap hurdle, it was Waxies Dargle who took a fall at the fourth last, when still travelling comfortably.

Sea Beat showed very little – and I suspect we will next see him in a run-of-the-mill handicap.

He certainly doesn’t appear good enough for a premier handicap at this stage of his career.

The race was won by Katie T, who as I said this morning, was my third choice in the race.
I spent a fair bit of time last night trying to decide between her and Waxies Dargle,

With the benefit of hindsight I should have put up both – and ditched Sea Beat !

The cold weather is threatening tomorrows cards, but hopefully they’ll resist.

Either way, I’ll be back at the normal time in the morning with an update on things…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 18th

With Fontwell lost to the weather a few days back, todays only NH meeting takes place at Leopardstown, in Ireland.

It’s a slightly strange meeting in so much as it is totally dominated by two handicaps: The Boylesports chase and the Boylesports hurdle.

Both are extremely valuable events (60K Euro to the winner), meaning that they are races that will be targeted by connections.

That gives an angle when trying to solve them, as we can look for horses that have been given preparations with today in mind (ie. horses not showing their hands too soon).

The large number of runners in these races will inevitably put some people off – but I feel quite comfortable putting a line through half the field in both cases.

If you could get 10/1 the field in a 10 horse race, I think most people would agree that you were looking at quite an attractive betting medium (which I believe these races are).

That said, pinpointing the winner still remains a tricky task, but this game is more about moving odds in your favour over the long term.

I’m sure we’ve got the odds in our favour today – lets hope we get lucky and one of the selections comes home in front.

Here are my thoughts on both races…

2:20

When assessing this race, you have to begin with the favourite, Foxrock.

We were on his at Christmas, when he was a gallant runner up in the Paddy Power chase.

He ran a huge race that day – and I wouldn’t be put off by the 7lb rise in the weights he got for finishing second. However, I am put off by the fact that he drops half a mile in trip today.
I felt it was his lack of tactical pace that cost him victory last time – and over a reduced trip, I can see that being even more of an issue…

My short list for the race would consist of Dogora, He’llberemembered, Some Tikket, Byerley Babe, Fever Pitch, Federici, Treat Yourself and Back of Mate – so 8 (of the 15).

My initial fancy for the race was Treat Yourself. But his trainer, Arthur Moore, saddles 3 in the race and jockey bookings suggest that Treat Yourself isn’t his number one. That appears to be Back off Mate – for whom, I think todays trip will be too.

In the circumstances, I decided to leave all of the stable runners alone…

Dogora is quite tempting – as I think he has the ability to win a race such as this . However, he breaks blood vessels and has jumping issues – on balance I decided to pass on him…

I don’t see many chinks in the armour of either Byerley Babe or Federici.

If I’m being picky, then Byerley Babe doesn’t seem to have a lot in hand of her mark (though a first time hood and AP on top may eek out some improvement); whilst Federici will find this much tougher than the races he’s been competing in lately.

In truth, the bottom line with them both was that they are second and third favourites – so the value was limited.

This left me with He’llberemembered and Some Tikket.

The former won this race 12 months ago, off a mark just 2lb lower than he gets to run off today.

His recent run over hurdles (which he won on a technicality) strikes me as a prep race for today. The booking on Jonathan Burke is effectively 3lb off his back for no cost (he’s a better jockey than most professionals).

Simply, the horse ticks every single box – bar his age (he is 12). However, age is a relative thing – and it doesn’t seem to have slowed him down just yet.

He has a very good chance…

Some Tickket is a different kettle of fish…

A winner twice as a novice, last term (with Dogora well beaten on both occasions) he always looked the sort who would mature into a horse capable of competing in this kind of contest.

A seasonal debut to blow away the cobwebs at Thurles was followed by a very eye catching run at Leopardstown over Christmas.

He ultimately finished well beaten that day, but travelled as well as anything, to the home straight.
He gets today off a mark 3lb lower than he started the season from – and he gets Barry Gerraghty back on top.

I can also see him improving for todays step up in trip.

There is no way he is a 16/1 chance…

Here’s hoping one of the two can come good this afternoon.

0.25pt win He’llberemembered 12/1

0.25pt win Some Tikket 16/1

2:50

With 25 runners, it’s not as easy to systematically dissect this race – but I still reckon I could get in down to a dozen and would be very surprised if I missed the winner…

The two I’ve taken against the field, are Sea Beat and Waxies Dargle…

We were on Sea Beat last time out, when he ran in the Ladbroke at Ascots pre-Christmas meeting.

He never really featured that day – but I saw enough in his performance to persuade me that he is one to stick with.

He was certainly travelling well enough in that race, until a mistake at the sixth hurdle cost him any chance.

The thing that strikes me about Sea Beat, is the way he is being campaigned…

His victory over Le Vent D’Antan last season – and his third on the flat behind Windsor Park at Galway in October, tell me that he could easily pick up an average handicap off his current mark, if connections wanted to.

However, they know that if they were to do that, he would likely be running off a mark 10lb higher and his chance of victory in a valuable race like todays, would be much reduced.

The seem intent on preserving his mark until he hits gold (by only running him in very valuable races).

It’s a similar story with Waxies Dargle.

He was as easy a winner as you will see all season, when he dotted up at Fairyhouse in November.

Granted, he was officially the best runner in that race – but it was still amazing that the handicapper left him on the same mark.

His trainer, Noel Meade, realised he had been fortunate – and again looked to make it count by targeting the Ladbroke with the horse.
However, the UK handicapper wasn’t quite so lenient in his interpretation of the form, rating it significantly higher than the Irish handicapper.
As a consequence, Meade ditched that plan and targeted this race instead.

Basically, the horse hasn’t run for 2 months so he can run in this race.
Ofcourse that doesn’t mean he will win today, but I’ll be very surprised if he isn’t giving it his very best shot !

Of the others, then I was most tempted by Katie T – but felt she might just lack a bit of toughness for a race such as this.

For those who like to play in running, I could also see Follow the Sign running a massive race from the front; whilst Forty Foot Tom looks over priced on BF (currently 60), for a horse who likes to race prominently (and is quite well handicapped).

0.25pt win Sea Beat 16/1

0.25pt win Waxies Dargle 9/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Leopardstown 2:20 He’llberemembered 0.25pt win 12/1

Leopardstown 2:20 Some Tikket 0.25pt win 16/1

Leopardstown 2:50 Sea Beat 0.25pt win 16/1

Leopardstown 2:50 Waxies Dargle 0.25pt win 9/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

None

 

Top Picks

 

None

Review of the day

A slight profit on the day, meant that this was another reasonable Saturday…

And that was thanks to the first tip of the afternoon to run, Castarnie.

I have to say, I was quite optimistic pre-race, when I saw how strong he was in the betting (sent off 4/1 second fav – and challenging for favouritism on BF) – and, as is so often the case, the market proved prophetic.

Mind you, he did have to survive a couple of heart stopping moments – the worst of which was probably at the final fence. That said, he was the best horse in the race and deserved to win.

Unfortunately the days other tips couldn’t follow his lead…

Abracadabra Sivola barely jumped a twig at Ascot. It was as poor a round of hurdling as you will see – and unsurprisingly he paid the penalty and finished well beaten.

The race was won by Baradari, who might have been tempting at his SP of 11/2 – but wasn’t that price wasn’t available this morning.

Next it was Green Flag – but in atrocious conditions at Haydock, he (like plenty of others in the race) was never really travelling.

In truth, when the ground gets that bad, the racing becomes a bit of a lottery – the horse that can handle it best tends to win.
Samstown handled it best today.

Finally, at Ascot, Acketac ran a cracking race in the handicap chase - but appeared not to quite get home. He jumped like an absolute buck –and if he can build on todays run, he will take some beating next time out.

The race was won by Rebel Rebellion – a horse I tipped back in November, when he ran poorly at Aintree – which was a little annoying…

Mwaleshi was another former tip to win this afternoon.
We were on his last time when he was hammered by Third Intention at Haydock.
Today at Haydock, Third Intention fell early – and Mwaleshi came home in front.

Fine lines…

Earlier at Haydock, Barafundle had got the mentions off to a good start, with a battling win in the opener.

There is clearly still life in him, despite his advancing years.

At Ascot, Village Vic ran a decent race – but a couple of mistakes and a lack of race fitness seemed to catch him out; whilst Land of Vic lacked the tactical pace to stay in touch when the two leaders quickened on and whilst she was clawing back the deficit close home, she had left herself with too much to do.

Whilst at Taunton, the 2 big priced mentions both ran screamers (I hope non of you did an EW double on them !).

Softsong was beaten two necks into third (behind Whispering Harry); whilst As Der Fer missed third place by a neck, at odds of 50/1 !

As for the two super-stars running today…

The New One got bogged down in the Haydock mud. I thought Sam Twiston Davis looked quite down hearted after the race – but I honestly think the run can be ignored.

The later races on the card showed just how bad the ground was – horses either handled it or they didn’t (and I don’t think he did – yet he still won !).

Whilst Sprinter Sacre was beaten by Dodging Bullets at Ascot.
Clearly any defeat was always going to be disappointing – but it should be remembered, that Dodging Bullets sets the standard in the 2 mile division this season – and Sprinter Sacre was making his comeback after more than 12 months off the course.
Some of leaps he put in reminded me of the old Sprinter Sacre – and I remain optimistic that he will be able to regain his crown in March.
It should be remembered that he’s still only 9 years old – so should still be at his peak.

I don’t know what price he will drift to – but if he goes beyond 4/1, keep an eye out on the ante post blog for another tip 

Just a reminder that I will be opening the tipping window at 6:00 this evening – and will almost certainly be tipping one or two at Leopardstown tomorrow.

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 17th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Ascot, Haydock and Taunton in the UK - plus Naas in Ireland…

As Saturdays go, today is a bit disappointing…

The obvious high-light is the return to action of Sprinter Sacre in the Clarence House chase at Ascot – but that was never going to be a betting race…

Similarly, up at Haydock, the star attraction is The New One, but his presence makes the Champion hurdle trial a betting non event…

The supporting races on both cards are also quite low key, with small, uncompetitive fields the order of the day.

There are 3 decent handicaps on channel 4 this afternoon, and I’ve had a go at each of them. But they are all very tricky, so I think we’ll need a bit of luck to come out on top.

Just a quick word on tomorrow…

There are a couple of very valuable races taking place at Leopardstown.

I have no doubt that Tom Segal (Pricewise) will be on to them, so if we want get a price on anything, we will need to act early.

Consequently, I’ll open the tipping window at 6:00 this evening, which should enable us to get ahead of the game (assuming I can find a suitable selection or two).

Anyway, that’s tomorrow – we’ve got to get today out of the way first !!

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Haydock

3:15

This looks like a very open race, but I’m hopeful that Green Flag can give us a good run for our money…

He was a very decent novice last season, finishing second in the Grade 1 Feltham novice chase at the Kempton Christmas meeting, before switching his attention to non novice events, at the spring festivals.

A fourth place behind Holywell at the Cheltenham festival was followed by a sixth place in the Scottish Grand national.

Both were excellent runs for a novice – particularly as they were achieved on ground a bit quicker than Green Flag would really want.

He was put away for the summer after Ayr and reappeared in an intermediate chase at Carlisle in November, when he ran a cracker over a trip that would have been too short for him.

His next race was the Becher chase at Aintree, but he ran disappointingly there, appearing not to take to the National fences. I think that run can be ignored.

However those latest runs have seen Green Flag dropped a few pounds in the handicap and he gets in off a mark of 140 today – just 2lb higher than the mark he won from at Newcastle in November 2013.

I suspect his current mark under-states his ability by quite a few pounds.

There is no reason why he shouldn’t run his race this afternoon and I expect him to go very close.

In fairness, he does face some decent rivals today: Shangani could prove very dangerous on the heavy ground; whilst Hey Big Spender also has to be feared (despite being 12 years old and on a handicap mark of 154) – however neither have the scope of Green Flag.

0.5pt win Green Flag 7/1

In the opener on the Haydock card, I think veteran Barafundle might be able to get the better of Kingswell Theatre (who is 5 years his junior !). However, a best price of 7/2 isn’t going to lure me in…

I could see Cogry running a fair race in the novice chase at 12:55 – but he really shouldn’t be good enough to get the better of Close Touch (or even Colour Squadron).

The New One should prove himself a class apart from his rivals in the Champion hurdle trial at 2:05 – but has been priced up accordingly: whilst the graduation chase should be between Third Intention and novice Carrig Mor. At the prices (9/4), Third Intention would hold the greater appeal…

Ascot

2:25

In a race where there are plenty of imponderables, I think it is worth taking a small chance on Abracadabra Sivola…

He was the surprise winner of the Victor Ludorum hurdle at Haydock last February, when he coped admirably with gruelling conditions and managed to get the better of Aurore D’Estruval. That day, he gave 2lb to a horse now rated 147 – and based purely on that piece of form, he has an outstanding chance this afternoon…

That said, there is a chance that the Haydock run flatters him: his subsequent runs over fences in France, haven’t shown him in anywhere near the same light – and whilst he did perform better on his return to hurdles in the UK, he will need to improve on that third to Kilcooley, if he is to feature today.

However, he may just be capable of doing that. He is still only a 5 year old and so should have plenty of scope for improvement.

Of his rivals, then whilst Garde Le Victoire sets a decent standard, I’m not convinced that he wants 2m4f in the mud. That is probably exactly what Baradari wants -  but he still has a bit to prove form wise and is short enough in the betting.

It’s almost impossible to get a proper handle on the ex-French Le Mercurey and Willem; whilst neither Lyvius or Rayvin Black (who is 6lb out of the handicap) look particularly well treated, to me…

In short, it’s not an easy race to get a grip on – but instinctively, I feel that Abracadabra Sivola has a chance – and is a few points too big in the betting…

0.25pt win Abracadabra Sivola 9/1

3:35

Another very competitive race, but one where I am quite happy to take a risk on Ackertac at a big price.

Based on recent form, his chance isn’t obvious – but if you go back through his form, he has run races which suggest he is very well handicapped today.

He has run very well at the past 4 Cheltenham festivals – particularly when runner up in the novice handicap chase at the 2013 festival, off a mark of 137 (he runs off a mark of 133 today).

He was sporting blinkers for the first time that day – so it’s interesting to see him in a first time visor today.

Ackertac has also run some very good races when the ground is soft (as it is today).
His best recent run, was when second to Kapga de Cerisy in the soft at Kempton last November. That run came off a mark of 147.

Similarly it was soft when he beat Vino Griego over todays course in November 2012…

His recent form is a bit of a worry – though he showed distinct promise on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot in October, behind Johns Spirit.

In addition to the first time visor, it also strikes me as significant that Richard Johnson takes over in the saddle today from 7lb claimer Alan Johns.

Both changes suggest that connections are going for it.

Ofcourse, even if that is the case, then there is no guarantee that Acketac will be good enough to win.

This is a strong race, in which Venetias two representatives, Niceonefrankie and Tenor Nivernais, plus Ballinvarig and Bobcatbully can all be given good chances.

However, I do feel that Acketac can also be given a chance - and unlike the others, he has been missed in the betting.

In the circumstances, he was one of the easier tips to issue today…

0.25pt win Acketac 20/1

The high-light of day, is without doubt the reappearance on Sprinter Sacre in the 3:00 race.

There’s not a lot I can say about Sprinter Sacre that’s not been said already.

I just hope that he’s back to his brilliant best.

As I’ve said before, the game needs its super stars – and he was a super star.

Fingers crossed he still is…

In the mares hurdle at 1:50, I was sorely tempted to take a risk on Land of Vic…

However, it’s a very tight race, and whilst there might be some margin in her price of 5/1, against at least 4 good rivals, that margin is pretty small.

The application of cheek pieces looks at interesting move and if they do elicit some improvement, she should go very close…

Village Vic is the one that interests me most in the novice handicap chase at 1:15…

However Traffic Fluid and Kings Lad both look dangerous, so a best price of 3/1 wasn’t particularly tempting…

Taunton

2:15

This is not a race I can be confident about, but I am hopeful that Castarnie might reward a speculative interest.
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut in a fair handicap hurdle at Plumpton.

That race was run in desperate ground and, on his handicap debut, Castarnie led the field to the home turn.

The eventual first and second quickened past him at that point (and impeded him slightly) but he ran on for pressure to finish a very creditable third.

The winner has won again subsequently, so the form of the race looks good.

Castarnie himself, has since made his chasing debut, behind the top class Saphir De Rheu at Exeter. Unsurprisingly he was not in that league and was ultimately pulled up. However the run served the purpose of getting him a bit of experience jumping fences, so was of some merit.

Today he is back into a handicap – and running of the same mark that he ran off at Plumpton. He also has cheek pieces re-applied (they were on when he ran at Plumpton – but absent last time).

It’s difficult to be adamant that he is well handicapped – but my feeling is that he might be…

It is also difficult to get a handle on all of his rivals. Bang on Time is favourite, on the back of a last time out win at Wincanton, he may prove troublesome off a mark just 5lb higher; there are also 2 or 3 others, who are completely unexposed over fences and could show significant improvement over them.

That said, Castarnie falls into that category – and he has already shown ability over hurdles.

He represents a stable that I like – and is jockey Felix De Giles’ only ride of the day.

Let’s hope his journey to Taunton proves worthwhile

0.25pt win Castarnie 10/1

Whispering Harry should take the beating in the novice handicap chase at 3:25 – but he looks short enough at 3/1. In the same race, Softsong could potentially be interesting – and is a much bigger price, even if he is fraught with risk !

Finally, in 3:55, The Italian Yob might well be able to capitalise on his falling handicap mark. He ran with much more promise last time at Chepstow and if he can build on that, he is handicapped to win.

However, I would be more inclined to take a small risk on As de Fer, who is also potentially very well handicapped if he can rediscover his form – and is available to back at a general 20/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Early

Haydock 3:15 Green Flag 0.5pt win 7/1

Ascot 2:25 Abracadabra Sivola 0.25pt win 9/1

Ascot 3:35 Acketac 0.25pt win 20/1

Taunton 2:15 Castarnie 0.25pt win 10/1

Late

None

Mentions

Haydock 12:20 Barafundle (P )

Haydock 2:40 Third Intention (P )

Ascot 1:15 Village Vic (O )

Ascot 1:50 Land of Vic (O )

Taunton 3:25 Softsong (S )

Taunton 3:55 As de Fer (S )

Top Picks

None

Review of the day

We managed to get on the wrong side of one of those fine lines, this afternoon…

Early this morning, it was my intention to tip Kingcora – but on closer inspection of the race, I talked myself out of it; instead, I opted to tip Ultragold, in the hope that he would confirm his debut form.

Needless to say that change of mind provided sods law with an opening which it gleeful snaffled !

And whilst Ultragold struggled in the rain softened ground at Wincanton, Kingcora got the better of a battle with Canuspotit at Market Rasen.

With the benefit of hindsight, I should have put up both, or neither.

I knew the margins were relatively small with all of todays possible tips – it was inevitable that if I opted for just one, it would be the wrong one !

Ah well, these things happen…

Returning to the Ultragold race then he looked to be going as well as anything turning in, but the combination of the heavy ground and a strong wind, seemed to catch him out and he didn’t get home.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tongue tie re-applied next time – but my suspicion is that he is a horse best caught fresh…

There was also no joy with the days Top Pick, Horendus Hulabaloo at Thurles...

He was strong in the market, which I saw as a positive – but in the race itself, he hadn’t got the tactical pace to go with the leaders when they quickened after the third last.

He did stay on well from the final flight – but never looked like reeling in the winner.

I knew there was a chance that he might need more of a test of stamina – I just thought he would get away with it against seemingly limited opposition…

As for the days other mentions, then Geton Xmoor never featured in the opener at Wincanton.

The race was won by Private Malone – one of the two who I thought would fight out the finish. His SP was 5/1, which was a bit surprising, considering he was a 7/2 shot this morning…

Also at Wincanton, Handy Andy ran well enough in the Devon marathon, but looked like a horse in need of a break: whilst Judge Davis appeared not to handle the very soft ground and was pulled up.

At Ludlow, Roll the Dice was unable to dominate and ran a slightly disappointing race to finish third.

I suspect he could probably do with a break.
Lily Waugh ran much better to finish runner up to Midnight Belle. She should be capable of winning a mares chase, based on this evidence.

Finally, back at Thurles, Don Cossack won the Kinloch Brae, following the last fence fall of Champagne Fever.

I suspect he would have probably won regardless – though it certainly would have been close between the two.

The winner must now have a very good chance of lifting the Ryanair chase for his owner, Ryanair supremo, Michael O’Leary…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 15th

There are NH meetings today at Wincanton, Market Rasen and Ludlow in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland…

It’s always difficult to know how best to play things on a day like today…

Last night, the expectation was that todays card at Wincanton would be lost to the weather. Consequently, I was disinclined to put too much time into it, despite there being some very interesting looking races.

That said, I did have a quick look through all the fields – and checked out the horses I was particularly interested in (just in case the meeting did go ahead).

It was a slightly different situation at Ludlow and Market Rasen.

I expected those two meetings to go ahead - but the racing isn’t as interesting – and there is also huge uncertainty over the ground  (and even the make up of the fields, due to non runners).

There was nothing at either meeting that compelled me to tip it…

I did come close to a tip at Thurles – but the price has gone on the horse, so I’ve made it a Top Pick instead !

On a different subject, I think that there might be one or two email problems again…

I use a distribution list to send things out – and include my personal BT email address in it (so I can check that things have been sent OK).

For the past couple of days, I’ve not received anything – and yesterday, one of you sent me an email to say the same thing.
He is also on BT – and I’m getting email delivery failure messages for someone else on BT.

In short, I suspect there might be an issue with me sending emails to BT accounts…

Currently there are about half a dozen of you using BT accounts.

I’ve no idea whether you are receiving my emails – but if you use it, I would be grateful if you could confirm that things are working OK.

I’m always conscious that email is the only way I have to contact you all (that came home to me when I experienced the internet problem in November).

If you do have any issues and are struggling to get hold of me, I suggest that you either use the contact form on the TVB website – or post a comment on the private blog.

I may not see it immediately, but I check the blog every few days…

Anyway, on to my thoughts on the day – the rationale behind the tip, the Top Pick and a whole load of mentions !!

Wincanton

2:05

In a race where I am happy to take on most of the field, I am hopeful that Ultragold can reward a small interest…

He threatened to be a smart horse last season, but never managed to fulfil his apparent promise.

On numerous occasions, he travelled well through his race, without quite getting home.

He was given a breathing operation over the summer, so it was significant that he was able to make an impressive winning debut at Exeter in December.

At the time, I marked him down as a horse who could really go through the ranks this season, so it was a little disappointing to see him well beaten next time out at Chepstow.

That said, Chepstow in the mud, is a law unto itself, so it may be best to ignore that run (which wasn’t that bad – just not as good as expected).

Certainly if he can pick up the thread from his Exeter win, then I think he will make them all go this afternoon.

Of his rivals, then Trickaway is the one that I fear most.
He was a good winner for us last time and appears on a upward curve.

Against that, the handicapper has given him a few more pounds to carry – and he is up in class this afternoon.

He may prove up to the job – but he is short enough in the circumstances.

Him aside, I am happy to take on all of the others, on the grounds of trip, handicap rating or form – suggesting that 11/2 on Ultragold is a decent enough price to warrant getting involved.

0.5pt win Ultragold 11/2

In the opener on the card (1:30) Geton Xmoor was the one I was potentially interested in…

He refused to settle on his handicap debut at Chepstow – but still showed a fair amount of ability.

I guess it might be a similar story today – but if he can be restrained and if he can handle the heavy ground, I would expect him to run a big race.

In fact, at 20/1 I was half tempted to take a chance on him – but the top 2 horses in the handicap do appear to be on a steep upward curve, so I suspect he might only be running for place money…

Handy Andy is the one who interests me most, in the handicap chase at 2:35.

I thought he ran a huge race in the Welsh National last time out, looking as likely as anything jumping the fourth last fence, before weakening out of things from that point.

In all probability he didn’t quite stay the marathon trip – but over 2 furlongs shorter today, he has to be of interest off a 1lb lower mark.

However, there are a couple of issues with him: firstly, whether he will have recovered from such a gruelling race; and secondly the presence of a number of strong rivals.

There aren’t any in the race that could be safely discounted, which makes the 13/2 price on Handy Andy tight enough…

There is another interesting race at 3:40, in which most of the field can be given a chance…

Toowomba was impressive last week at Leicester and will be hard to beat under a penalty.

However, at the prices, I would be more inclined to side with fellow bottom weight, Judge Davis.
He ran well behind Trickaway last time, and if he can handle todays ground, then a price of 13/2 might look generous…

Ludlow

The most interesting race on the Ludlow card is the handicap chase at 1:55.

It has an open look to it, but I might be inclined to take a chance on Roll the Dice – if his price was a bit bigger.

Despite not winning, he’s been in tremendous form this season and even though his hands mark keeps rising, I think he may be able to defy it.

That said, he clearly doesn’t have much in hand of his mark (if anything !) so will need to be at the top of his game if he is to prevail.

Consequently a price of 4/1 looks a bit too short to get involved with…

In the mares novice chase at 3:00, I could be half tempted by Lily Waugh…

I don’t think she stays any further than 2m4f, so that trip on a sharp track like Ludlow, should be ideal for her.

That said, she was inferior to 4 of her rivals over hurdles, so she has a bit of improving to do if she is going to master them today.

I think she might be up to that – and I think 6/1 is a reasonable price. But probably no more than that…

Market Rasen

Just the one race of interest at the Lincolnshire track: the handicap chase at 3:20…

I was half tempted to take a risk on Kingcora in this – but I‘ve had second thoughts…

I certainly think a case can be made for him being reasonably handicapped: whilst he should have no issue with the trip or ground.

6/1 is a perfectly fair price – but I just worry about his rivals…

Ultimatum Du Roy won this race last year, off a mark just 3lb lower; whilst Canuspotit was backed as if connections felt he was a well handicapped horse, when making his seasonal debut over the course on Boxing day.

It’s not easy to completely dismiss his 3 others rivals either, so with additional concerns over his jumping, he’ll just have to be a mention…

Thurles

The race of the day, is the Kinloch Brae chase, due off at 2:45…

Champagne Fever or Don Cossack – that is the question.

I’m a big fan of both – and honestly wouldn’t want to pick between the two.

With completely different running styles, I think it could come down to who gets the best ride.

Ruby will try and make it on Champagne Fever; with Bryan Cooper looking to apply pressure, on Don Cossack.

In simple terms, I think the race is Champagne Fevers to lose. If Ruby gets everything right (and he normally does), I would expect Champagne Fever to win.
That said, the margin for error is small – and I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of Paul Carberry and Texas Jack spoiling the party, if Don Cossack does force Champagne Fever to go a stride faster than he should (thereby leaving both the main protagonists vulnerable at the end).

It should be a fascinating race, whatever the outcome.

In the previous race on the card, I wanted to tip Horendus Hulabaloo.

He was a big eye catcher in the better race than this, at the Leopardstown Christmas festival.

With the hood back on today and him likely to relish the heavy ground, he should take all the beating - particularly as it’s not easy to find anything to oppose him with…

The early 3/1 was tempting (if we could have got it !): even the current 9/4 looks fair enough.

I’m going to make him a Top Pick and hope that thing pan out as I believe they should…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Wincanton 2:05 Ultragold 0.5pt win 11/2

 

Mentions

 

Wincanton 1:30 Geton Xmoor (O )

Wincanton 2:35 Handy Andy (C )

Wincanton 3:40 Judge Davis (O )

Ludlow 1:55 Roll the Dice (P )

Ludlow 3:00 Lily Waugh (O )

Market Rasen 3:20 Kingcora (O )

 

Top Picks

 

Thurles 2:10 Horendus Hulabaloo

Review of the day

There was no joy this afternoon, with Albatros de Guye…

He actually ran a very disappointing race, either not handling the ground – or demonstrating himself completely useless !

As he’d shaped with some promise on his UK debut, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and blame the ground…

And it was a shame really, because as I suspected this morning, the race was there for the taking.

Jumping the last, Bobbits Way (the other one that I felt had a chance) seemed to have got the better of favourite Bravo Riquet.

But he then demonstrated why he is a 21 race maiden, by showing an unwillingness to run on.

This enabled the favourite to get back up and take the race close home…

The only other horse I was interested in today was Manballandall – and what a race he ran !

Taken wide throughout, he must have given away a couple of dozen of lengths in the process. He looked well beaten turning in, but then ran on late to ultimately finish around 10 lengths behind the winner.

I’ll be surprised if there is a bigger eye-catcher all season - which is a bit of a shame, as the chance on us getting a price on him next time were probably shot by todays run.

Oh, the joys of this complex game !!

TVB.