End of season report - 2014-15

Headline figures

TVB tips

Total staked: 79.125pts

Total profit:  45.63pts

ROI 57.67%

These numbers don’t include the Cheltenham festival (or Aintree) – or the ante-post blog or the Top Picks.

They are therefore the official numbers for the main service from Nov 1^st to Mar 31st.

To achieve that ROI, you would need to have backed all advised selections at the generally available best price – with the BOG concession.

Needless to say, I wouldn’t expect many to have achieved that !

That said, I know that at least a few of you got close to a 50% ROI over the season, which is a tremendous performance, by anyones standards.

Furthermore, one or two you actually managed to beat the official figure – and returned profits for the season in excess of 50pts !

This was achieved primarily by taking more detailed guidance from the daily write-ups – I’ve covered this area more extensively in a later section of the report, entitled ‘Maximising the service’

Service Edge

When you are following a service, I think it is important to know whether or not it really has an edge (or if it is just going through a ‘lucky’ period).

The best way I know of establishing this, is to compare the advised prices of the tips with their starting price on Betfair (BSP).

If a service can continually beat BSP, then over time, it should make a profit…

The prices of selections advised by the TVB service, beat BSP on all 5 months.

To advised stakes, this was by the following amounts:

Nov – 3.89pts

Dec – 2.06pts

Jan – 2.37pts

Feb – 2.56pts

Mar - 3.19pts

Over the whole season, this means that BSP was beaten by 13.98pts – which equates to an edge of 17.66%.

Detailed break-down

The 79.125pts staked were spread across 211 horses running in 188 races.

The 211 horses yielded the following in terms of finishing positions:

1^st – 33

2^nd – 29

3^rd – 25

4^th – 16

My target is for 25% of my tips to finish first or second – and 29% of them achieved that aim.

That is an improvement on previous seasons and suggests that I am honing in on the right horses to tip.

Staking

Last season, I really messed up the staking and I was determined not to do the same this time round.

As a consequence, I introduced a very limited – and quite restrictive - staking system.

Clearly, it is not the perfect solution, but the numbers suggest that it did a job…

Level stakes on all selections this season would have yielded a profit of 65.64% (138.5pts on 211pts staked) - compared to a profit of 57.67% using the suggested staking.

Whilst it is true that you would have made more profit at level stakes (and variable staking is supposed to improve profits) – it would have come at the cost of a more volatile P&L.

The biggest drop on the P&L at any point during the season was 13.13pts (from mid November to early December).

With level staking, that would have been 31.5pts. I’m sure at that point, one or two of you would have been getting a little twitchy !

This said, I do still see staking as an area where I can improve.

Getting it to the point where it doesn’t have a negative impact isn’t really much of an achievement ! What I want to do is use it to maximise profits.

I know that many of the winners I tipped this season (I would estimate at least a dozen), were staked too conservatively.

To an extent, that is my nature – but I need to be a bit braver when I really fancy something.

That said, I also know it is unrealistic for me to heavily stake a horse that I am issuing early into a weak mid-week market. I’m sure you all have enough issues getting on as it is, without me suggesting you try and increase your bets…

Seasonality

Seasonality is a concept that I introduced last season – and based on the performance this season, it could be argued that it doesn’t warrant a mention in this report - but that would be very wrong !

In my opinion, identifying and high lighting the 4 periods (warm-up, golden, wet and closing) was the most crucial thing that came out of last years end of season report…

This time round, I was prepared for each period as it arrived – and not afraid to introduce a new method to cope with it.
I think that was absolutely key in achieving such a good performance throughout the season.

In fact, the only part of the season that caught me out, was the first period (the warm-up).

In truth, that is always going to be the hardest one to deal with – and I think it was particularly tricky this season.

Obviously I have to get back into the disciplined ways - but I also had a lot of people to deal with and a new email system (which didn’t want to play ball !).

The icing on the cake, was when I lost my internet connection for a day during the Cheltenham November meeting – that was the low (most stressful) point.
From then on, things began to find a groove – and I think it can be argued that the ‘Golden period’ lasted for most of the next 4 and a half months (ignoring Cheltenham week !)

Service sub sets

Last season, I was keen to keep an eye on a couple of service ‘sub sets’: namely, the Weekender (primarily Saturdays) and the Irish racing.

This season, I think the ante-post blog also warrants a few comments…

Irish Racing

When I first started tipping, I was very wary about tipping in Irish racing…

I know as much (possibly more !) about the Irish racing as I do about the UK racing – but that markets are incredibly weak – and you do really need to have your wits about you.

That said, I have been pretty successful with the limited Irish tips that I have issued via the service - until this season !

Just one winner from 33 selections is about the same level of form as I was in for Cheltenham - though in fairness, the winner was a 20/1 shot…

As a result, the sub service recorded a 4.75pt loss on 11.25pt staked.

That said, there were 6 runners-up – 5 of which traded heavily odds on – so maybe things weren’t as bad as they superficially appeared…

Certainly, I am close to my target 25% 1^st or 2^nd – and the ‘service edge’ suggests 2.24pts profit on 11.25pt staked (20%).

Maybe I’ll give the Irish races another season

The Weekender

Unfortunately, The Weekender has not proved to be the breeding ground for new subscribers that I hoped.

Administratively, it is also a pain – so it will be scrapped next season (which is a bit of a shame).

The irony is, that anyone who had subscribed to the Weekender service for the entire season (nobody did !), who have had an absolute bonanza !

The main service produced the following figures, broken down by day of the week:

Mon – 5.75pt profit on 4.25pt

Tue – 4.25pt profit on 3.25pt

Wed - 8pt profit on 4.75pt

Thur – 0.125pt loss on 8.75pt

Fri - 2pt loss on 13.25pt

Sat - 37 pt profit on 34.38pt

Sun – 7.75pt loss on 10.5pt

So simply, the vast majority of the profit made by the service this season, came on a Saturday.

Those of you who have been with the service since its inception will know how different that is from previous seasons.

And, to be honest, I can’t offer that much of an explanation as to why…

I think it helps that I tip early on a Saturday (the night before for televised race; and early morning for the rest) – as that gives me a much better chance of finding a bit of value.
It also probably helps that I’ve tended not to focus on the highest quality races - but more on the best opportunities, wherever they may be.

In truth, I would have expected numbers more like this in previous seasons – so it was maybe those that were the anomalies - time will tell…

With regard to the other days of the week, then the big thing that strikes me is the disappointing performance on Thursdays and - in particular – Sundays.

However, it is probably no coincidence that they are the two days when most of the Irish racing takes place – so there must be a strong chance that the performance on those days is closely linked with the performance on the Irish racing…

More generally, it is interesting to note that nearly half of the tips are now issued on a Saturday.

The main reason for that is the lack of strength of many of the mid-week markets, which make issuing tips into them very difficult indeed.

I know that some of you would like more mid week action – but simply, it is not possible (as has been shown on many occasions this season, when I have wanted to tip mid week but the prices haven’t realistically been there).

Ante-Post

The ante-post blog was a new creation this season, designed to showcase TVB to the wider world (again, with a view to attracting new subscribers).

Superficially, a profit of 9.25pts on 5.5pt staked (ROI 168%) makes it look like a huge success – but I’m not so sure…

It’s a high risk: high reward area – and we undoubtedly got lucky with Emperors Choice winning head bobber for the Welsh National.

Without that, the blog would have made 1pt profit – and probably sunk without mention…

I’m just not convinced that there are many (any ?!) ante-post opportunities around nowadays.

The bookmakers tend to go up one by one (as with the early markets) – pricing very cautiously.

Other tipsters are all over any snippets of value before the markets have matured – meaning that by the time we can get on, there is little of interest.

This was particularly true of Cheltenham, where I can promise you, I spent the best part of 2 months, looks for angles – and came up with 4 tips (2 of which didn’t even run !).

I know that a few of you picked up on ante-post bets from the write-ups (Windsor Palace for the Neptune being the most successful one) – and I think this will be the way forward for ante-post.

There may be the odd official tip, which I will include in the main service – but the ante-post blog will be ditched…

Backing at Starting Price

At the beginning of the season – before a single tip had been issued – I wrote quite a long piece regarding my commitment to trying to make the service profitable at BSP (a copy is on the blog, for those of you who want to refresh your memories).

Needless to say, when the second winning tip of the season, Doctor Ric, got hammered in the betting from 10/1 early to 9/4 at the off, a few of your were sceptical about whether I would be able to achieve my objective ! (as indeed, was I !!).

However, 5 months on, I can report that it was a huge success !

To a level stake, the service made 73pts profit (before commission) on 211pts staked at BSP (34.6% ROI)

It was a similar story at advised stakes: 27.26pts profit on 79.125pt staked (34.48% ROI).

This really is a tremendous achievement – particularly as my focus wasn’t on achieving a profit at BSP (it was just a secondary objective).

I would doubt there are many services out there (if any), which will achieve in excess of 30% profit at BSP.

The service even actually made a profit at SP (without BOG !) of 22.6pts at level stakes (10.22% ROI).

So it’s now official – you can all retire and just invest all of your money in TVB tips

More seriously, I do find the performance quite staggering.

I have no idea whether it was a one-off – but it certainly gives me great hope for the future…

When I produced the article at the start of the season, I broke down the tips for last season, comparing advised price to BSP - and for consistency I have done the same below for this season.

Tips included on the first data row, had a BSP at least 30% shorter than the advised price: whilst on the second row, they had a BSP at least 10% shorter than the advised price etc.

BSP v Advised price            Number of bets            Pts profit                    ROI

30% less                                 76                                  38.53                           50.7%   

10% less                                 114                                45.29                           39.7%

The same                                141                                54.22                           38.5%

10% greater                            155                                76.82                           49.6%

30% greater                            195                                48.32                           24.8%

All tips                                    211                                73.08                           34.6%

I did mention in the article that I produced, that it was a little dangerous filtering tips, if you were betting at BSP (you really need to know the nature of the tip – and be able to understand the market moves).

That said, those of you who take that approach tend to gravitate towards the strongly supported tips, so you should have done pretty well from this method.

Whilst not part of the official main service, Top Picks are my other attempt at operating profitably at BSP.

I was committed to issuing Top Picks at the start of the season – and they were successful during the first couple of months.

However, when the rain came, my attention moved away from the head of the market – and potential Top Picks weren’t appearing on my radar in the same way.

By the time I was back focusing on the market leaders, the season was nearly over - so I decided to leave them alone.

However, by that time, I had also realised that the Top Picks were too good to be sat at the side of the service – they really needed to be moved into the main service.

Over the season, I issued just 18 Top Picks - but 7 of them won – yielding a profit of just over 6pts on 18pts staked, at BSP.

This is bang in line with all the other tips issued during the season – and shows me that I can read the front of the market just as well as the rest of it.

The other good thing about these horses is that they should be a little easier to tip mid week (as the markets tend to be more robust at the top end) – so they will help to increase the volume of bets.

I doubt I will be able to find the same margin in their prices (which will see a reduced ROI, over time) – but I think that is acceptable if they produce a steady profit…

Maximising the Service

I have always maintained that TVB is more than a tipping service – and I think it is difficult to argue with that statement.

I spend an hour or two every day, writing up my thoughts on the days racing in an attempt to paint as accurate a pictures as possible, of the way I see events unfolding.

Common sense says that if I know what I’m talking about, this should be a far more effective way of advising you guys, than a simple tip could ever be…

In fact, with bookmakers restricting/closing accounts – and it nearly impossible to get a bet of any substance on until minutes before the off - the daily write-ups should be the most valuable part of the service, but I know that is not the case for many of you…

I understand there are reasons for this – lack of time being the main one – and that is fair enough, on many days.

However, I would encourage you all to work with the write-ups whenever you can. Not just on a daily basis but over the course of the entire season – as they are capable of significantly improving your profits and your enjoyment of the racing…

One person who does just that is Liam…

He joined the service 2 seasons ago and spent most of his first season trying to figure out how to get the best out of the write-ups.

He put a lot of time into both reading them and sending me emails try to work things out.

By the end of last season, he felt he had figured a path – but then was unable to re-subscribe to the service at the beginning of this season, due to work commitments.

However, that situation changed at Christmas and he rejoined the service on Boxing day/St Stephens day (good timing on his behalf, but that’s a differed matter !)

Since that time, Liam has managed to secure a 51.48pt profit from the service. 

Over the same period, the official profit figure is 38.75pt – so Liam has managed to beat that 12.71pts (33% extra).

More than that, the official profit figure would be very difficult to achieve, so in reality he has beaten the best achievable profit figure by around 50%.

Compared to a lot of you, with account restrictions etc, he will have achieved double your level of profit.

Now that should give some food for thought…

I’m sure many of you are wondering how exactly he has managed this – but it really isn’t rocket science…

He follows what he reads in the write-up.
If I am particularly strong on a tip, he increases his stake: if I am fearful of one in a race, he saves on it; if I am keen on a particular mention, he will back it.

Basically, he takes the write-up and converts it into a set of bets that he feels better represents what I am saying that the prescriptive tips I issue.

Obviously this take him time – but realistically, that is probably half an hour a day – and the nett result is an extra 20pts profit compared to most.

Additionally, he gets the security of knowing that his P&L is more robust than the official one because he churns more bets and ‘insures’ many of the tips.

Plus, he gets the satisfaction of knowing that at least part of the profit, is as a result of his own effort/intelligence…

Next season, I plan to create a basic forum for the service.

It will give the likes of Liam (he’s not the only one – just a very good example) opportunity to share with others, his thoughts and methods for maximising the output from the service.

Needless to say, I’m a little wary about introducing a forum (!) – but I know that I have some very good guys on the service, so I am prepared to set-up a simple offering, and see how things go.

I won’t be able to put a lot of time into it myself – but hopefully a few of you will find it valuable to exchange ideas.

Certainly, if it results in some of you doubling your profits on the service, I would expect there to be a bit of interest..!

Changes for next season

This was a really good season – and I have to be realistic – if I can achieve the same next season, I will be very happy (as doubtless will all of you !).

However, I still feel that there are some changes that I can make which should improve things a little further.

I’m always striving to maximise the edge that the service has (the market is always kicking back the other way, so you have to) and I think there are a few tweaks to be made, which will have this effect.

I have covered most of them in the sections above, but to summarise:

- Jettison ante-post

The experiment of putting it on a free blog didn’t really work.
I’ll maybe issue the odd ante-post tip as part of the main service – but only if I see a really good opportunity.

- Bring the Top Picks into the main service

I’m now pretty sure that I can find god selections at the top of the market.
I tend to be put off by short prices – but that is silly.

Horses like Yes Tom and Saint Are were great bets at 2/1. There is also the benefit for those of you with the BOG facility, that markets leaders can often drift a little in price…

- Create a TVB forum

Just a simple ‘off the shelf’ one – that will enable those who are interest, to share thoughts and ideas.

It will also provide me with a ‘message board’ on case of any email issues.

- Take a break just before Cheltenham

The Christmas break introduced this season was a smart move - I’m sure that it helped me get through January and February.

However, I was feeling jaded entering Cheltenham week, which didn’t help matters.

There is little going on during the week prior to Cheltenham so I will probably look to take a few days break at that point, to freshen up and prepare for the big week !

- Tip more !

The number of tips issued this season was down 30% on last seasons (211 v 276).

Whilst accepting that it is getting harder every season to tip mid week, I do think I could/should tip more…

The last week of the season was a classic example of this, with me, for various reasons, electing to pass on tipping 3 winners.

Tipping more would reduce the variability – and would probably increase the P&L (even if it would also probably reduce the ROI).

Incorporating the Top Picks should help – but I can do even more than that…

- Improve staking

I have a (limited) staking system that I am relatively happy with – but I need to be a bit bolder on occasions.

There are some 0.25pt tips that should be 0.5pt: some 0.5pt tips that should be 0.75pt – and who know I maybe should issue the odd 1pt tip !

- Continue to respect the seasonality

Not a change – just a reminder of the most important thing that came out of the 2013-14 season.

I had it in the forefront of my mind this season – it must remain there next season !

Summary

Once again, I’ve written a huge amount in this report.

Hopefully, many of you will have reached this point (well done !) – but regardless, the main beneficiary of this report, is me ! 

I honestly believe that the prime reason we had such a good season, is because I put in the time to produce a similar report at the end of last season.

Following Aintree, I will leave everything behind for 6 months. Being able to pick this up when I return will give me the best possible chance of starting the season on the right foot – and making sure we build on this seasons performance.

From a personal perspective, this has been the least stressful/most enjoyable season so far.
I worked hard to get in a groove early - and just as hard to stay in it for the majority of the season.

The final results were pleasing – but not too surprising.

I know that I have around a 30% edge, proven over time.

With focus, I think I can double that (which is exactly what happened !).

Ofcourse, luck can always play a part – and knock you off the rails. However, I think March was the only month when we experienced any significant poor luck – and by that point, the season was in the bag !

As well as the profits, I would hope that many of you will all also have derived pleasure/enjoyment from following the tips and the stories – and latching on to the horses.

I know that this is a hobby/interest for a number of you – and hopefully the TVB service has improved your knowledge and enhanced your enjoyment of the sport.

Once again, I would like to thank you all for your support over the past 5 months.

There has barely been a dissenting voice over the period (though why should there have been ?!) – and I would like to think that you all now understand the service I have created.

As always, I would like to give special thanks to a few: Michael and Ciaran, for their ongoing support; Liam, for letting me share his numbers with you; and Dave, for cheerily exchanging countless emails on wet week day afternoons, about obscure horses running in obscure races the following day !

I did consider making significant changes to the service for next season – but I’ve come to the conclusion that would be the wrong thing to do.

Most of you should now feel pretty comfortable with what I produce – and as with Liam – if you are prepared to put in some effort, that will enable you to maximise profits.

To do that however, you will need consistency from me, so I think evolution makes more sense than revolution.

As always, I would welcome any feedback on the season, this report – or the service in general.

I am always particularly interested to hear how individuals follow the service (it helps me decide precisely what to put in the write-ups) – and how your own figures compare with the official ones.

Obviously we have Aintree in a couple of days time – but after that, it will be October before you next hear from me.

Hopefully most of you will re-join me for the 2015-16 season when I will look to build on what has been achieved so far – and will set myself the target of surpassing the numbers achieved this time round.

I do like a challenge 

TVB.