Daily write-up - Apr 9th (Aintree Day 1)

Day 1 of the Aintree Grand National Meeting.

Following a couple of weeks of dry weather, I was expecting the going to be riding on the quick side for the opening day of the Aintree meeting.

I guess that might be the case, but significant watering earlier in the week has cast a question mark over things…

Apparently 5mm of water was put on the Mildmay course on Tuesday morning and the ground is now officially described as Good to Soft - Hmmmm….

That seems to cover most bases – anywhere between quick and slow, then !

As always, we’ll only know for sure when it is too late (ie. after the races have been run).

Both Arnaud and Menorah would have a strong preference for fast ground.

They can act on softer – but such ground will better suit some of their rivals.

Let’s hope the temperature are soaring on Merseyside this afternoon !

Here’s the rationale for the days tips – and thoughts on the other races on the card…

Aintree

1:40

This is a race that I simply have to tip in…

The top 4 in the betting, all ran last time out, in the Arkle at Cheltenham over 2 miles.

They were all destroyed by Un De Sceux that day – and maybe not too surprisingly have elected not to take him on again at this meeting.
However, in order to avoid him, all 4 have had to step up half a mile in trip (Un De Sceux runs over 2 miles on Saturday).

I guess it is possible that is by design for one or two of them – but I suspect it is more likely out of necessity.

When you couple that with the fact that they all probably had quite a hard race fruitlessly chasing Un de Sceux at Cheltenham, you can see that the race should be ripe for a turn up…

However, there are only 2 other runners in it – and neither of them appear to have quite the class of the 4 market leaders.

That said, both Cash and Go and Val De Law have already shown themselves fairly decent sorts – with the latter in particular, open to plenty of improvement.

Val De Law has only raced 6 times in his life – and just the twice over fences.

They are his only 2 runs in this country and on the first of them, he was in process of giving the top class Southfield Theatre a real race, when he came down at the final fence at Exeter.

On his only other run, he was caught close home by Cash and Go, after sauntering 4 lengths clear of him after the second last.

Strictly on the book, Cash and Go should confirm that form today – but he is the far more exposed animal – whilst I suspect that Val De Law is learning and improving with every race.

In truth, he will need to have learnt and improved quite a bit to get the better of Vibrato Voltat today, as that one is rated 18lb superior to him.

However, I’m sure that Val De Law is significantly better than his current rating – and there are good reason why Vibrato Voltat won’t run up to form today.

In the circumstances, I think it is worth a small risk on Val de Law at a big price – and for those of you who are feeling particularly bold, a reverse forecast on him and Cash and Go is unlikely to be the daftest bet you have ever placed…

0.25pt win Val De Law 22/1

2:15

I did consider tipping Intense Tango EW in this - but I suspect we’d just be playing for the place part of the bet.

At 16/1 ¼ the odds, I might have been prepared to do that (with the slight possibility of a bonus win) – however as 14/1 1/5 odds was the best on offer, and I can pass on that…

The reality is, that Hargem is likely to outclass his rivals today – provided he has recovered from his run at Cheltenham in the Triumph hurdle.

It’s impossible to know for sure whether he will have done – but he didn’t have the hardest of races to finish third, so my feeling is that he will be fine today.

He will certainly love the quicker ground – and simply, his form is at a different level to that of his rivals.

If you support Intense Tango it is the hope that Hargem under performs…

Even if he does, then Bristol De Mai could well have the beating of Intense Tango.

He finished in front of her at Kelso last time – and with no change in the weights, could well do so again this afternoon.

That said, I would expect the quicker ground to better suit Intense Tango.

The other one who should be battling for a position in the frame, is Devilment.

He finished fourth in the Triumph, 10 lengths behind Hargem.
His chances of turning the tables on that one are remote – but he still has a decent chance of finishing in the money.

2:50

As I’m sure you will recall, I was pretty keen on Menorah for the Ryanair chase at Cheltenham.

However, his connections opted not to run him in that race, deciding instead to save him for today.
I can understand their logic: Menorah has generally performed better at Aintree than he has at Cheltenham, and he will be a fresher horse today than most of his rivals.

Whether he will be quite good enough to win, is a different matter – though based purely on the form book, he does look to have every chance…

Certainly, there is little between Menorah and second favourite, Silviniaco Conti.

The two met on their first 2 runs of this season, with Menorah coming out on top at Wetherby and Silviniaco gaining revenge at Haydock.

The Haydock form is probably a fairer reflection of their respective abilities – however Menorah was only 2 lengths adrift of Silviniaco that day, having looked likely to get the better of him, jumping the last.

Todays quicker ground will be in Menorahs favour – as will the fact he swerved Cheltenham.

In short, I think he is a good bet to beat Silviniaco today…

I’m not quite so confident about him beating Holywell – but at the prices, I’m prepared to take a risk.

That one was big improver at the back end of last season (when blinkers were applied and the ground quickened up). He beat Ma Filleule at Cheltenham and then followed up at this meeting in the grade 1 novice chase.

He did little of note this season prior to running an excellent fourth in the Gold Cup.

That really was a huge performance on ground he wouldn’t have liked and based on that form he is clearly the one to beat today.

However, there is a chance that the run has taken the edge off him and his price of 2/1 leaves little margin for error.

I’ll be a little surprised if any of the outsiders are good enough to seriously get

involved, so I make this a shoot out between Holywell and Menorah.

At 4 times the price, there really was only one path I could ever take…

0.5pt win Menorah 8/1

3:25

All things being equal, I’ll be a little surprised if this race isn’t won by either Arctic Fire or Jezki.

The trouble is, with only 6 runners in the race, and no confirmed front-runner, there is the distinct possibility that all things won’t be equal…

So much is going to depend on race tactics, it’s almost impossible to bet in the race with any confidence.

If there is an end to end gallop, then I would expect Artic Fire to pick them off late on.

However, if the early pace is limited and Jezki strikes half a mile out, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him hang on.

In other scenarios, either Rock on Ruby or Blue Heron could attempt to make all.

Like I say, tricky…

Most likely, I would expect Rock on Ruby to lead early: Jezki to take it up round the home turn – and he and Arctic Fire to battle it out up the run in.

Which one wins, will depend on the pace in the race.
In summary, an easy race to pass on…

4:05

Despite there being 30 runners and the National fences, this is a race which I felt was very much worth getting involved with…

Firstly, over half the field can be easily eliminated from calculations: whist I also think there are question marks hanging over a couple of the market principals.

On the Fringe is the obvious place to start. He won the Foxhunters at Cheltenham – but whether he will have the pace for today’s shorter trip on faster ground, is debatable. There is also the chance that the Cheltenham run will have left its mark…

The other one I want o oppose at the prices, is last years winner, Warne.

I tipped him last season but that was mainly because it was a very weak race. Todays contest is much stronger – and whilst I would expect him to run well, I would also expect there to be one or two too good for him…

I’m hoping that one of those will be Big Fella Thanks.

If it weren’t for his age, I would be very keen on him today.
His record over the Aintree fences is excellent; his is in very good form – and he as crack amateur Derek O’Connor on board.

On the flip side, he is now 13 years old – so past his prime. However, it is only 2 months since he ran a massive race to finish runner up in a class 1 handicap on Cheltenham trials day, so he is clearly still capable of performing to a high level.

The other one I want on board is a little more speculative…

Quinz was formerly a high class chaser (rated 153 in his prime) – but his career has been beset by injury.

On the back of an impressive in the Racing Post chase, he was well fancied for the 2011 Grand National. However he burst a blood vessel that day and was pulled up.

Keeping him sound is the issue – but if he gets to the track in top form he still has a big performance in him.

His only run under rules this season was in a hunter chase at Doncaster, when he finished runner up to the top class Paint the Clouds.

He was receiving weight that day and beaten 10 lengths – but it was still a decent performance against the horse who went on to finish third in the foxhunters at Cheltenham.

Collateral form lines say that Quinz has got it all to do against On the Fringe – so I guess that’s why he’s a 50/1 shot !

However, NH racing is rarely that simple and I suspect that Quinz still retains enough ability to run a huge race this afternoon.
Whether he is good enough to win, is a different matter – but in a race which his no where near as strong as the number suggest – and in which there are question marks against a few of the market leaders, I think he is worth a small risk at a huge price.

0.25pt win Big Fella Thanks 8/1

0.125pt EW Quinz 50/1

4:40

At this meeting 12 months ago, the one horse I wanted to tip was Arnaud, in this very race…

I latched on to him following his previous run at Doncaster, where he finished second in a very decent novice chase, leading everywhere apart from the final 50 yards.

I’m pretty sure that Arnaud wants good ground and a quick, flat track.

He just about got those conditions 12 months ago, but got into a pace duel up front and that did for his challenge.

He’s not had his conditions since that day (certainly, not this season, when he has raced exclusively on heavy ground) so I’m hoping that a return to spring ground will see an upturn in his performance.

In fairness, he has not run too badly in a few of his races this campaign - most notably his most recent outing. And he also seems to have learnt to settle better in his races, which is likely to help him get home today.

Last time out he ran a very creditable second to the rejuvenated Rubi Light.
That was over 2m2f at the stiff Thurles track, on very deep ground.

Arnaud cantered round that day and looked sure to win approaching the last, but just didn’t quite get home.

I think that was just because it was too much of a test of stamina for him – but it did at least show that he’s right back to his best, form wise.

In fairness, this look quite a hot race – and also one where there is likely to be an abundance of pace from the off.

Cheltenham winner Next Sensation will take some heading early – and I don’t think he’s too badly handicapped off  a mark just 8lb higher.

He will be a tough opponent to beat, assuming he has recovered from his Cheltenham exertions.

So too will Ned Buntline. He finished fourth behind Next Sensation, when he was APs last ever Cheltenham mount…

Others worthy of a mention are Karinga Dancer and last years winner, Parsnip Pete.

I can see them all going well.

However, I am hopeful that Arnaud will be able to track Next Sensation, keeping out of most of the trouble - and them strike for home between the last two.

Hopefully this time, he will keep sufficient in reserve to come home in front.

0.25pt EW Arnaud 16/1

5:15

This looks a pretty trappy contest, and whilst I felt I could eliminate a few of the field, there were still too many left with chances, for me to be able to tackle it with confidence.

The one I was most interested in, was Tagliatelle.

I tipped him at Cheltenham and he was a little unlucky to only finish fourth in the Coral Cup, after having been given a lot to do. It’s anyones guess how he will cope with the extra half mile today – but if he handles it, them I could easily see him being involved at the finish.

The other 2 of particular interest at decent prices, are Ulzanas Raid and Katgary.

The former was in good form in the early part of the season and may well have derived benefit from a mid season break.
The latter is one I have already tipped twice this season – and he won comfortably last time out at Newbury.

He has been raised 6lb for that win – but that doesn’t look overly punitive.

He can currently be backed at 20/1 with Coral, which strikes me as very fair (he’s a general 16/1 shot).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Early

Aintree 1:40 Val de Law 0.25pt win 22/1

Aintree 2:50 Menorah 0.5pt win 8/1

Aintree 4:05 Big Fella Thanks 0.25pt win 8/1

Aintree 4:05 Quinz 0.125pt win 50/1

Aintree 4:40 Arnaud 0.25pt EW 16/1

Late

None

Mentions

Aintree 2:15 Intense Tango (O )

Aintree 3:25 Jezki (P )

Aintree 5:15 Tagliatelle (C )

Top Picks

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