Thursday 2 April 2015

Daily write-up - Apr 11th (Aintree Day 3)

The final day of the Aintree meeting – Grand National day…

From what I can make out, there was a small amount of selective watering applied to the course yesterday evening – and there has been a coupe of millimetres of rain this morning.
The weather isn’t as nice as it has been the past 2 days, so I would expect the ground to be riding slightly slower – but only slightly…

As I suggested last night, it’s a disappointing card for the sports showcase day.
The big race is up to scratch (the quality improves year on year) – but the supporting races are quite drab (the racing was much better on the first 2 days).

In truth, I struggled to find a couple of tips – though I did feel there were 2 races in which it was worth getting involved, because of potentially vulnerable short priced favourites.

For the final time this season, here are my thoughts on the day ahead…


Aintree

1:30

Nichols Canyon and Parlour Games head the betting for this – and there is little disputing that their runs in the Neptune novice hurdle at Cheltenham represent the best form in the race.
Parlour Games edged out Nichols Canyon for second place that day, behind Windsor Park – and unless we get another Ruby masterclass, on riding your rivals to sleep from the front (which is a possibility), I would expect that form to be upheld.
Days of Heaven is the potential fly in the ointment for the big two, as Nicky Henderson has saved him specifically for this meeting.
However, he is highly strung sort, so it’s anyones guess how he will cope with the Grand National crowd.
If he gets to the start without getting worked up, I think he could be the one…
Half chances can be given to the next few in the betting, though Seedling needs to demonstrate he can get the trip; As De Mee that he can cope with this step up in class; and Three Musketeers that he is up to the job at this stage of his career.
Of the 3, then I think Three Muskateers is the nicest horse – but I just can’t see him operating at his peak today. He strikes me as more of a long term project.
The rest don’t really look up to it – at least not from a win perspective…
If forced to bet in the race, I would side with Days of Heaven – but only after I had checked that he had made it to the start OK…


2:05

The absence of Un De Sceaux has completely changed the complexion of this race – and as Grade 1 chases go, it now it looks quite weak…
In fairness, God’s Own is a worthy favourite as he has already won a Grade 1 chase (at Punchestown last April) and was an honourable runner up behind Un De Sceaux in the Arkle.
That run was particularly commendable, as it is generally acknowledged that God’s Own is a better horse going right handed. He even jumped right at Cheltenham – though it didn’t stop him running a mighty race.
If I was a supporter of his today, then that trait would worry me – but what would worry me more, is his relatively quick return to action.
All of God’s Owns best runs have come on the back of an absence. That clearly isn’t the case today – and more than that, he had a very hard race last time.
In the circumstances, I feel he had to be opposed at 7/4…
However, finding one to oppose him with isn’t that easy.
Court Minstrel is the obvious one – as he will love the track and ground and ran a decent race in the Arkle.
However, he isn’t the biggest of horses and I do worry about his ability to ping a fence at speed.
Instead I’ve opted for the ex French Traffic Fluide.
He’s only run 4 times in this country, but has improved massively for each outing.
His rate of improvement is best illustrated by his last two runs – both of which have resulted in comfortable defeats of Seventh Sky.
On the first occasion, Traffic Fluide beat him 6 lengths, when in recipe of 16lb.
On the second occasion, he beat him 10 lengths, when in receipt of just 5lb.
The suggestion is that Traffic Fluide improved by about a stone from one run to the next (Seventh Sky won his next race, so he isn’t deteriorating). I reckon he has made a similar level of improvement, every time he has set foot on a racecourse this season.
Obviously that has to come to an end at some point – but he is only rated 12lb inferior to God’s Own – so he doesn’t need to find quite that much improvement today Winking smile
Of the 3 others in the race, then the outsider of the field, Art Mauresque is the one that interest me most.
He looked likely a quality animal when winning at Kempton – but reading between the lines, I suspect that Paul Nichols is running him in this event today, because he has limited options.
Certainly the fact that Sam Twiston Davies is riding Solar Impulse (and I don’t really rate his chances), suggests that Art Mauresque isn’t particularly fancied today.
That said, I’ll be keeping an eye on the betting and if money does come for him, I’ll probably cover my stakes with a saver.

0.5pt win Traffic Fluide 9/2


2:50

Based on the form book, this looks a 3 cornered affair between Cole Harden, Zarkandar and Whisper.
They finished first, third and fifth in the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival and there are reason for thinking that Zarkandar and Whisper can close the gap on the winner that day, Cole Harden.
Certainly Zarkandar made a shocking blunder at the second last hurdle , which cost him any chance of victory; whilst Whisper ran at the festival on the back of a far from ideal preparation so should have more scope for improvement than the other two (he also had the least hard race of the trio).
I would have a slight preference for Cole Harden, as he could well get an uncontested lead; however, it does feel a bit like flipping a 3 sided coin…
If there is one capable of upsetting the apple cart then I think it could be Henryville.
He ran a huge race off top weight in the Pertemps final and that form puts him within a few pounds of the principals.
Whether he will be able to make that improvement is a different matter – but he will love todays ground and there is a distinct possibility that the Cheltenham run will have brought him on (it was his first in 4 months).
If you can get 20/1, ¼ odds, then he would be worth an EW play.


3:25

You won’t see much weaker field assembled for a race worth £35K to the winner –and as the prelude to the Grand National, this contest is very poor…
It says much that Buywise has been installed 9/4 favourite for the race – I’d want that price on him jumping round cleanly !
That said, he undoubtedly has the talent to win a race such as this (I can hardly say otherwise, having tipped him for both the Paddy Power Gold cup and Hennessy !) – but as I know to my cost, he is more than capable of making things go wrong in a race.
I find it fascinating that Adam Wedge takes over in the saddle today from Paul Moloney – and I suspect that will either make or break the horse.
Moloney has undoubtedly ridden the horse very conservatively - and we are likely to find out today whether that was the right thing to do.
My feeling is that the horse is not very good at jumping and if Adam Wedge throws his at one or two this afternoon, then I think it has the potential to go spectacularly wrong !
Once again however, whilst finding a favourite I want to take on is one thing – finding a horse to take him on with, is quite something else !
The line up for this race strikes me a bit like a rogues gallery !
Virtually all of the runners could win, if they wanted to – but you can be pretty certain, that most of them won’t want to, for one reason or another…
Bobowen can hardly be described as the most reliable of animals.
He hacked up in the summer plate at Market Rasen just under 2 years ago, but has barely beaten a runner home in his 6 subsequent races.
However, as a consequence, he gets to run today off a mark just 2lb higher than the mark he was successful from at Market Rasen.
His most recent run was at Kempton 4 weeks ago. That was his first outing for 9 months and whilst he finished well beaten, I thought he travelled nicely in the race until making a bad blunder at the fifth last fence.
He was allowed to come home in his own time after that, but I’m sure he will be significantly straighter for the run.
The key to Bobowen seems to be decent ground – and he should get that today.
I would be pretty confident that trainer Richard Newland has been saving him for a spring campaign.
Maybe he has hit lucky finding such a weak race to run in or maybe this has always been the plan - I don’t know.
However, I do know that if Bobowen bounces back to form this afternoon, he is likely to go very close indeed.

0.25pt win Bobowen 16/1


4:15

In all the years I’ve been studying the Grand National, I don’t think I’ve seen a horse run in the race, that I could make a stronger case for than Rocky Creek…
As an 8 year old, he finished fifth in last years race, after an interrupted preparation.
On the back of that run – and a disappointing run the Hennessy, he gets into todays race off a mark 2lb lower – but as he showed when destroying a decent field in the Betbright chase last time out, he is actually a much better horse this season.
In fact, I would go so far as to say he is a borderline Gold Cup horse – yet he will get to carry just 11st 3lb this afternoon.
His official handicap mark of 163 now reflects his quality – and he achieved that rating when apparently only 90% fit.
Generally, when horses who look as good as him run in the race, it is as an after thought following a big run at Cheltenham,
That’s not the case with Rocky Creek – Aintree has always been the plan – Kempton was merely an aperitif !
Provided he gets a little bit of luck in running – and doesn’t do too much early in the race – I think he will win today.
I don’t care that it’s the Grand National – simply, you won’t see a better handicapped horse running in a more suitable race, all season…
Ofcourse there is always the possibility that luck won’t smile on him – or that he will make a significant mistake at one of the 32 fences – and if that happens, you will need to get your pin out to find a saver…
I went through all of the other runners and reckon there are about 20 who could win (and a further half dozen that I could see running well, but not getting home).
The good ground is likely to result in big runs from Balthazaar King, Spring Heeled and Al Co – and if I were to save on the race, it would probably be on one of those.
That said, the second best handicapped horse in the race is The Druids Nephew – though I would worry both about the effects of his Cheltenham win and his ability to jump the national fences.
I could give a chance of being placed to every runner priced below 25/1 – whilst of the very big priced runners, I would expect Mon Perrain to travel well – but probably not get home.
If you want an EW pick that has gone under the radar, then I would suggest Monbeg Dude. I really don’t understand why he is a 50/1 shot…
However, if you want the winner, then I suggest you back Rocky Creek.
He might not be a huge price – but he ticks every box and I think he will take the world of beating.

0.375pt win Rocky Creek 10/1


5:10

This is actually quite a scary race !
22 runners – many of whom are very unexposed – and amateur jockeys to boot.
Not for the faint hearted, that’s for sure !
A couple of old favourites run in the shape of Ruler of All and Oyster Shell - but I will be a little surprised if they can see off some of the less exposed types.
One for the Guv’nr is an obvious looking favourite – though time alone will tell if he is any value at 5/1.
Baltimore Rock looks interesting for David Pipe; whilst I could see Chieftains Choice running a big race from close to the front (Little King Robin is likely to make the running).
All this said, the one I will be rooting for is Astre De La Cour.
He is part owned by one of our number, Stuart – who will be at Aintree watching him this afternoon.
My head says he’s got a chance as well – provided the ground isn’t riding to quick.
Best of luck Stuart !


5:40

The meeting finishes with a mares bumper.
The market seems very keen on Babylone Des Motte – and who am I to argue ?!
I thought Miss Crick might run well – but it really isn’t a race that I would have a strong opinion on.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips
 
Early
 
Aintree 2:05 Traffic Fluide 0.5pt win 9/2
Aintree 3:25 Bobowen 0.25pt win 16/1
Aintree 4:15 Rocky Creek 0.375pt win 10/1
 
Late
 
None
 
Mentions
 
Aintree 1:30 Days of Heaven (C )
Aintree 2:50 Henryville (O )
Aintree 5:10 Astre De La Cour (S )
Aintree 5:40 Miss Crick (S )
 
Top Picks
 
None
 

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