Daily write-up - Apr 10th (Aintree Day 2)

Day 2 at Aintree.

After a warm day, there was selective watering of the track yesterday evening.

In fairness, the ground was riding pretty much as I expected yesterday: quick – but safe.
If they maintain that for the remainder of the meeting, I won’t have any complaints.

I’ll see how the next 2 days go, but my suspicion is that I may need to radically change the way I handle these major festivals…

The problem is my staking system – which is far too restrictive to enable me to deal effectively with the huge, competitive fields that these big meeting attract.

I’ll stick with it for this meeting for consistency – but I just feel it is stopping me from achieving what I want to…

So far as today is concerned, then I have tipped a few horses (to small stakes !) – and I quite fancy them all.

However, most of the races are very competitive, so it is also likely to be worth paying attention to the explicit and implicit mentions in the write-up.

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and my other thoughts…

1:40

This race has a very similar feel to the closing contest from yesterdays card.
A big field – but probably not as competitive as numbers suggest…

The market is headed by the 4 year old The Saint James, who arrives here on the back of a very eye catching run in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham.

The fact he runs in this race as a 4 year old seems quite significant – and AP taking the mount means that he has been missed by no one.
I think he has a decent chance - but 4/1 is way too short to consider getting involved…

Instead, I’ve opted to split stakes between a couple of the horses who follow him in the market.

The first of those is the Paul Nichols trained Pearl Swan.

He was a very decent juvenile a couple of seasons back, and was still in contention for a place when falling at the last in the 2012 Triumph hurdle.

He has not run much since then however, with injury keeping him off the track for 18 months prior to his run in the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham in November.

He was pulled up that day and only reappeared at the festival last month, when he ran an excellent sixth in the Martin Pipe hurdle.

There is a strong possibility that he will improve for that run – and it seems quite significant that Nichols applies blinkers for the first time today.

I’m sure that his rating of 138 under-estimates his ability, so he looks likely to take a bit of beating.

The other one I want on side is Some Buckle.

We were on him last time, when he ran really well to finish fifth in the Imperial Cup at Sandown.

He was a little lucky not to finish even closer that day and if he improves for todays step back up in trip, he is also likely to run a mighty race.

Certainly his narrow defeat to Glingerburn looks strong form – and his rating of 135 very workable.

There are a number of other interesting sorts in the race, particularly the Irish pair  Knights Parade and Daneking.

However, outside of The Saint John, the one I am most fearful of is Dell ’Arca.

I tipped him at Cheltenham but he took a fall early in the Coral Cup. Provided that hasn’t left his mark, then I can see him running a very big race this afternoon.
That said, he is more exposed than both Pearl Swan and Some Buckle and I just feel that those 2 are more likely winners of the contest.

0.25pt win Pearl Swan 10/1

0.125pt win Some Buckle 10/1

2:15

This looks a very weak for a grade 2 contest, with Glingerburn and Qewy seemingly standing clear of their rivals.

In truth, neither of them are yet world beaters – but both have shown reasonable levels of form and also have scope for further improvement.

Glingerburn is unbeaten in four hurdle races this season, following 18 months on the side lines. He has improved with each run and his most recent defeat of Bristol de Mai, is decent form (the runner up finished third in the 4 year old hurdle yesterday).

I do have some concerns about how he will handle todays speed test – but I still think he is the one to beat.

That said, I am hopefully that Qewy will have his measure…

102 rated on the flat, he was a massively impressive winner at Newbury on only his second run over hurdles – and whilst a little disappointing on his subsequent run in the Supreme novices at Cheltenham, that was a red hot race.

His still managed to finish a creditable fifth – and I don’t think the course would have particularly suited him.

Me feeling is the quicker track at Aintree will be far more to his liking, so provided he has recovered from his Cheltenham exertions, he should take all the beating this afternoon…

Outside the main two, it is difficult to find much to enthuse about…

Qewy holds Cardinal Water on Newbury form; and whilst I can believe that the strong travelling Vago Collones will cope with a step down in trip, 2 miles at Aintree maybe a bit too much.

Cyrus Darius is impossible to get a handle on – but could potentially be very useful; whilst I could also see Jolly Cracked It out running his odds.

However, I do think that the finish is likely to be fought out by the top 2 in the market – and the odds available, there really could only be one selection.

0.5pt win Qewy 11/2

2:50

I did consider tipping Irish Cavalier in this – but he was pricewised last night, so that effectively put an end to that idea !

In fairness, he was a speculative selection, based mainly on the fact that I thought he offered a bit of value at around 11/1.

He certainly wasn’t a strong fancy, which is why I was prepared to drop him once a couple of points had been shaved off his price.

In truth, the race should be won by Saphir Du Rheu – provided he jumps round OK.
He is different class to his rival – but that fact that he has failed to complete in 2 of his 3 chases to date, means that taking 7/4 about him this afternoons is only for the brave (foolish?!).

With him out the way however, it looks a very open race, with no stand out performer.

I’d certainly be happy to oppose Irish Saint on ground he is likely to find too quick, over a trip that might stretch him.

Irish Cavalier looked the obvious one as he is in good form and both trip and ground will be idea for him.

That said, you don’t normally expect a grade 1 chase to be won by a horse rated 146 !

Of the others, then I wouldn’t put a big run past Close House – though equally, you couldn’t support him with any confidence; whilst I could definitely see Rawnaq outrunning his odds. In fact EW at 16/1+, he might be worth a small play…

3:25

This looks a bit of a minefield and I could give you good reason why non of the runners will win !

Of them all, then Champagne Fever looks the most solid option – but he is plenty short enough in the betting and I am not entirely convinced that he has the class required to take a race such as this.

In fact, he looked held by Don Cossack, when taking a fall at the final fence on his penultimate run, so it is difficult to understand why that one is a bigger price today.

The trouble with Don Cossack, is that his jumping can be sketchy – and I’m not convinced he wants ground as quick as he will get his afternoon…

Quick ground would also be a concern for Al Ferof and Sire de Grugy – as both would prefer softer.

Al Ferof would also prefer a bit further – whilst Sire de Grugy is unproven over anything other than 2 miles…

I could fancy Balder Succes - if he hadn’t run at Cheltenham. However he did – and that is likely to have taken the edge off him…

Cue Card didn’t run at Cheltenham – and that is because he has been battling against injury problems all season.

Apparently he is over them all now and raring to go. If that is the case, then he will take all the beating this afternoon.

At his peak, he was more talented than any of the rivals he meets this aftrnooon – and although he has not put in a peak performance for a good while, there remains the possibility that he has not yet lost his ability.

In truth, it does feel like the last chance saloon for him today – but if the Cue Card that ran Sprinter Sacre to 4 lengths here 2 years ago turns up, then his rivals are unlikely to see which way he goes…

In a potentially very open contest, then I wouldn’t completely dismiss the claims of any of the outsiders – though wins for either Simply Ned or Wishfull Thinking, would be hard to take !

The latter in particular must have some sort of a chance based on his run at this course in October – but he didn’t go a yard last time and it would be impossible to support him on the back of that.

0.25pt win Cue Card 15/2

4:05

30 runners over the National fences – and I thought the previous race was tricky !

There is an argument that I should have ducked this race completely – but I simply wouldn’t have forgiven myself if I had not tipped Rajdhani Express again, after his run at Cheltenham.

Of all my Cheltenham tips, he was the one I was keenest on – and I still feel he was one that got away…

Superficially, finishing eighth, beaten over 7 lengths hardly smacks of unlucky – and he wasn’t. However, I am absolutely sure he is better than that form suggests…

Simply, he spent the entire race stuck behind a wall of horses. He started on the back foot and Sam Waley Cohen was never able to ride a race on him.

I hate the fact that we’ve got to take a shorter price in a bigger field and over the National fences – but I just think he has a massive performance in him – and today could very well be the day he delivers it.
If that is the case, I think he will win – regardless of the opposition.

That said, I do want to have another ex Cheltenham tip on side…

Theatre Guide was disappointing at Cheltenham – so he will need to bounce back from that.

However, the handicapper has dropped him 5lb – and he could well be suited by todays shorter trip.

He is now a very well handicapped horse – who could still have improvement in him.

He will love the ground – and if he takes to the fences, he could run a massive race.

Needless to say, there are plenty of others with decent chances, though most of them are at the top of the market.

I could see Ruben Cotter, Eastlake, Monetaire and Standing Ovation all running well – but if Rajdahani Express takes to the fences and gets a bit of luck in running, I think he will take all the beating.

0.25pt win Rajdhani Express 10/1

0.125pt win Theatre Guide 25/1

4:40

The market seems to have this race about right, with it struggling to split the form horse, Vyta Du Roc and the potential superstar, Minella Rocco.

I think it most likely that one of them will take the race – and of the two, I would prefer Minella Rocco.

That said, he faces very different conditions today to those he has faced so far in his short career, so does involve a lot of guess work.

Furthermore, if he is to win, I would expect to see him strong in the market – so his early morning drift would have to be considered a negative.

In truth, it wouldn’t be a massive shock if both the market leaders under performed, though finding something to take them on with, is a different matter…

Pricewise pick Alpha Des Obeaux looks quite interesting at a price: whist I could also see Zeroshadesofgrey running a big race for a 20/1 shot.

In summary, a race where it is difficult to have a strong opinion – and therefore one that it was quite easy to swerve.

5:15

The bumper closes the card – and it’s not a race that I have a strong view on..

I tipped Bellshill at Cheltenham – and he was disappointing. I would expect him to run better today – but whether he will run well enough to win, is a different matter…

At a huge price, Chitu catches my eye – but it’s a gut feel and certainly not a tipping prospect !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Aintree 1:40 Pearl Swan 0.25pt win 10/1

Aintree 1:40 Some Buckle 0.125pt win 10/1

Aintree 2:15 Qewy 0.5pt win 11/2

Aintree 3:25 Cue Card 0.25pt win 15/2

Aintree 4:05 Rajdhani Express 0.25pt win 10/1

Aintree 4:05 Theatre Guide 0.125pt win 25/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Aintree 2:50 Irish Cavalier (O )

Aintree 2:50 Rawnaq (S )

Aintree 4:40 Minella Rocco (S )

Aintree 5:15 Chitu (S )

 

Top Picks

 

None