There are 4 NH meetings today: in the UK at Kempton,
Warwick and Wetherby – and in Ireland, at Punchestown.
How
nice it is to see some good racing again. 4 decent cards – and markets that I
was able to tip in to.
It’s
how racing & tipping should be !
I’ve
adopted my now familiar approach, of spreading around relatively high-risk
selections. It’s a long term strategy, but hopefully we will be lucky enough to
hit on one (or two ?!) winners today.
Here
are my thoughts of the afternoons action:
Kempton
2:40
As
you would expect, this looks a very competitive heat.
The
right horses seem to be at the top of the market, with Hello George, Tea for Two
and Warrantor all having extremely strong claims.
Of
the 3, I would be most interested in Tea for Two – and with a couple more points
on his price, he would have been a tip.
However, in a race where at least 3 have excellent
chances – and 3 more have very good chances, there is little margin in a quote
of 6/1…
Instead, I’ve taken a bit of a flyer and gone for a huge
outsider in the shape of Ballybough Pat.
He’s
not run for nearly 2 years – and he’s changed trainers in the meantime, but
based on the best of his form from the 2012-13 season, he would have an
outstanding chance today.
He
was a novice back then, and his victory over African Gold - plus defeats to
Wonderful Charm and Taquin Du Seuil marked him out as one of the best novices of
that season.
He
also showed decent handicap form, including a second placing to Fair Along at
Newbury, off a mark of 132.
He
gets to run today off a mark of 129, so clearly is handicapped to go well –
provided he is fit.
And
that has to be a big concern, with him being off the track for so long.
That
said, nowadays, huge absences aren’t so much of a worry – particularly when big
prizes are at stake (as is the case here).
It’s
reasonable to assume that this has been Ballybough Pats target for quite a while
– and the booking of crack apprentice, Jamie Bargery, certainly catches the eye…
There is no doubt he is a risky one – and I think we need
the market to speak in his favour, close to the off.
However, if it does, then we have a very well handicapped
horse, competing in ideal conditions – with a top claiming jockey on
board.
A
33/1 shot – I don’t think so !!
0.25pt win Ballybough Pat 33/1
3:15
Both
Via Sundown and Ardkilly Witness ran in the same race at Ascot, last time
out.
We
were on Via Sundown that day and he ran a perfectly creditable race to finish
sixth.
Up
with the pace throughout, he just wasn’t quite good enough to really put it up
to some very decent rivals.
However, the handicapper has dropped him 4lb for that run
– and todays rivals aren’t as strong (this is a class 2 race, compared to class
1 last time).
At 7
years old, Via Sundown is the youngest horse in the field so likely to have the
most scope for improvement.
His
price of 12/1 looked generous enough to warrant a small risk…
Strictly on the book, he has the beating of Ardkilly
Witness (who finished well behind him in the Ascot race) – but I suspect it
might not be as straightforward as that…
Ardkilly Witness was very well backed in that extremely
competitive race (went off 9/2) – and looked to have everything in trouble down
the back straight.
However, he didn’t get home that day and jockey Tom
Scudamore suggested the horse might have breathing issues.
It
is therefore interesting to see that a tongue tie has been applied today (and
the visor dispensed with).
I’m
not a huge fan of tongue ties (as they suggest physical issues) – but I suspect
that if it works today, Ardkilly Witness could prove a very well handicapped
horse.
Of
the others, then Al Alfa is probably the one that worries me most – though it
does look quite an open contest.
Because of that, I think it makes sense to go with a
couple of horses at good prices, who have both got decent chances.
0.25pt win Via Sundown 12/1
0.25pt win Ardkilly Witness 8/1
3:45
Whitby Jack is another speculative one – but one I felt
worthy of a small risk…
A
bit like Ballybough Pat, he’s not seen the race course for quite some time
(nearly 400 days) – but is exceptionally well handicapped, if ready to do
himself justice…
That
statement is borne out by the fact that he comfortably won this very race, 2
years ago, off a mark of 119. He gets to run today off a mark of 115 – and has a
10lb claimer in the saddle. If connections want today to be the day, then he
could hack up…
Ofcourse, we are guessing with that one – but whilst the
horse has never won after a long absence, he has gone close.
Doubtless the market will once again advise on his
chances, near to the off…
Things are complicated slightly by the presence in the
race, of his stable mate, The Green Ogre, however, the one I fear most, is First
Mohican…
I
put him up as a Top Pick at Doncaster last time, and he still had a chance of
wining, when he fell at the last.
In
truth, his hurdling is a concern – as is very soft ground. Against that, I
suspect he is also very well handicapped…
Let’s hope Whitby Jack can take his measure this
afternoon.
0.25pt win Whitby Jack 10/1
Warwick
1:55
This
looks an open race, in which all of the runner can be given a chance of some
sort – but I have a feeling that Grand Vision may have been under-estimated a
little…
He
is a horse whose career has been interrupted by injury, but who has shown on a
few occasions, that when he is one his game, he is a very decent
animal.
A
third in the Albert Bartlett at the 2012 Cheltenham festival was the high light
of his novice campaign over hurdles – but he then wasn’t seen on the track until
last January.
A
disappointing run at the Cheltenham new years day meeting was followed up by an
excellent second at this meeting, in the Pertemps qualifier.
That
run came from a mark of 140, which in the context of todays race (accepting he
is now running over fences) puts him right in the mix…
Grand Vision switched to fences at the start of this
season and despite what his form figures suggest, he has shown significant
promise.
He
should have won on his seasonal debut, but over-jumped at Haydock and crumpled
on landing.
Next
time out at Uttoxeter, he looked likely to win, but tired up the home straight.
He maybe still needed that run.
Last
time at Ascot, he ran in a very hot race, and it soon became apparent that going
right handed didn’t suit him. In the circumstances, his third pacing wasn’t
without merit…
My
feeling is that todays track and ground will really play to Grand Visions
strengths.
He’s
a free going sort, who generally jumps well – and has a preference for going
left handed.
I
can see him really taking to the Warwick track, with its cluster of fences down
the back straight.
Certainly if he can get into a rhythm, then I think it
will take a good one to pass him.
That’s not to say that there isn’t a good one in the race
– but I think in terms of ability, then Grand Vision is capable of being a match
for all of the other runners.
Let’s hope that things pan out well for him this
afternoon.
0.5pt win Grand Vision 12/1
3:35
The
one thing that strikes me about this race, is the amount of potential pace there
is in it…
Benbane Head, Cadeaux George, Tales of Milan and
Carruthers, all like to make the running.
All
things being equal, then I would expect to see Carruthers set off in front and
there is no doubt that the Warwick track plays to his strengths (in the same way
I hope it will play to Grand Vision). I was half tempted by him – but in the
face of potential pace war, 8/1 on a 12 year old horse who doesn’t always want
to start his races, had limited appeal...
Instead, I’ve opted to split stakes between a very solid
option and a more risky one.
The
solid option is Hawkes Point.
Beaten a head into second in last seasons Welsh National,
he amazingly gets to run off a mark 3lb lower today.
The
suggestion is that he must have run really poorly in his 4 subsequent runs – but
that just isn’t the case.
He
ran well enough at Haydock last February and again on his seasonal debut at
Chepstow.
It
strikes me that the handicapper has been lenient with him.
When
you add into the mix the fact he is trained by Paul Nicholls, and that he wears
blinkers for the first time today, he was impossible to resist at 14/1 (as
Pricewise later confirmed !).
The
more speculative option is Peckhamecho…
Depending on how you choose to look at him, he‘s either
got a great chance - or no chance !
On
the one hand, he has run and jumped poorly on his 5 previous attempts over
fences – and has never run over a marathon trip before in his life. Based on
this, the suggestion is that he has virtually no chance…
On
the other hand, he dotted up off a mark 1lb higher than todays in a handicap
hurdle at Aintree earlier in the season and is now rated 12lb higher over the
smaller obstacles than he runs off today. Furthermore, the only time he
encountered heavy ground, he ran a huge race – and whilst he has never tackled a
marathon trip, there is a possibility that he might improve for it.
Based on this, the suggestion is that he has a big chance
!
Certainly, in a race where Paul Moloney should be able to
sit in behind and pick off rivals, I can see a scenario where (provided he jumps
OK !) he comes there swinging in the straight.
Let’s hope either the solid option or the speculative
one, come good this afternoon !
0.25pt win Hawkes Point 14/1
0.25pt win Peckhamecho 25/1
Earlier on the Warwick card, I wanted to be with Upepito
in the handicap chase at 1:20 – but I just worry about his jumping over the
Warwick fences…
In
truth, I also worry about some of his rivals (Great Link and Rio De Sivola to
name two), so on balance, I decided it was a race best swerved…
In
the Pertemps qualifier at 2:25, I think Big Hands Harry is the most interesting
one.
He’s
not really taken to fences, so I suspect he will appreciate a return to
hurdles.
That
said, it’s an open looking race - and
13/2 is not a massive price.
I’m happy for him to just be a
mention…
Punchestown
The
two handicap chases on the Punchestown card are the races that caught my
attention…
In
the first of them (1:15) I was sorely tempted to tip Pencilhimin (and maybe make
him a Top Pick).
I can’t even say that I thought the 11/4 on offer wasn’t
generous – I think it was.
The
bottom line is, if he jumps round OK, he should win.
That
said, his jumping is a worry – and whilst I feel he should be different class to
his rivals, there are 4 or 5 in the race that I know are capable of performing
above the level they have shown.
It
was a tough call – and one I might not have got right – but I figured at the
prices, I could just about afford to let him win un-tipped !
The
next race on the card looks between the market leaders: On the Shannon and Vasco
Du Mee.
The
former has been running consistently well – but his style of racing is likely to
set things up for Vasco Du Mee.
Again, at bigger odds, I would have been
tempted to get involved, but 7/2 against Vasco Du Mee doesn’t leave a lot of
margin for getting things wrong…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Early
Kempton 2:40 Ballybough Pat 0.25pt win 33/1
Kempton 3:15 Via Sundown 0.25pt win 12/1
Kempton 3:15 Ardkilly Witness 0.25pt win 8/1
Kempton 3:45 Whitby Jack 0.25pt win 10/1
Warwick 1:55 Grand Vision 0.5pt win 12/1
Warwick 3:35 Peckhamecho 0.25pt win 25/1
Warwick 3:35 Hawkes Point 0.25pt win 14/1
Late
None
Mentions
Warwick 1:20 Upepito (C )
Warwick 2:25 Big Hands Harry (O )
Punchestown 1:15 Pencilhimin (C )
Punchestown 1:50 Vasco Du Mee (P )
Top Picks
None
