Review of the day

It feels like we are on a bit of a roller-coaster at the moment…

Last week I couldn’t do anything wrong – now nothing will go right !

That was certainly the case with Strange Bird, who took a fall at the fourth last fence, when still in with every chance at Lingfield.

In truth, it’s impossible to say where she would have finished if she had got round, as the race turned into something of a lottery.

The ground at Lingfield seemed to be absolutely desperate – and whilst she does handle heavy ground and stay beyond 3 miles, she didn’t seem to be travelling as well as she can.

That said, pretty much everything in the race seemed to be struggling – apart from the horse she brought down, Finish the Story - and I’m not sure he would have finished his race…

All a bit frustrating then…

With regard to the mentions, then it was a similar story.

The most interesting of them was Dashing George, but he was brought down at the very first fence at Fakenham !

That left Full Ov Beans to jump and gallop his 2 remaining rivals into submission.

It could easily have been him brought down and Dashing George taking the race (they are similar horses with similar run styles) – they really are fine lines at times.

In the opener at Fakenham, Changeofluck ran on for second – a long way behind comfortable winner, Be Bop Boru.

Six one Away also finished second – but that was after appearing to have the race at his mercy.

I suspect he might be one to avoid in the future.

Whilst Thecorrupter completed the hatrick of placings at Fakenham, with a third in the finale.

He ran well – and could be of interest once he has a handicap mark.

Over at Lingfield, Paddy the Stout also ran well, to finished third in the days big race.

He briefly looked like he might do even better than that - but ultimately didn’t get home quite as well as the two in front of him.

John Louis also didn’t get home in the Lingfield mud – I suspect his run can be ignored.

Sportsreport on the other hand, got home just fine – and with little to beat, he was a convincing winner of the handicap chase.
Whether he will be able to follow up, off a higher mark in different conditions, remains to be seen…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 21st

They race this afternoon at Lingfield and Fakenham in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

Win, lose or draw, today is likely to be my last day tipping, before Boxing day (Friday).

There is a meeting at Bangor tomorrow, but a quick look at the 5 day decs suggested it was unlikely to be of any interest (though I will confirm, either this evening, or tomorrow morning).

I do plan to take a week or so off, over the Christmas/New Year period.

My current intention is to tip on the 26^th,27^th and 28^th.

I will take off some time between the 29^th and January 5^th – though I’m not sure exactly when.

I’ll let the quality of the racing influence my decision – but I’ll keep you informed.

With regard to today, then the 2 UK meetings are both quite interesting.
I spent a fair while on each, as I felt both cards contained races that I could solve.

I reckon I did solve a few of them – but unfortunately, the betting agreed with me (either early on – or by this morning).

Consequently, we have been left with just one tip.

I probably messed up a bit on the issuing of that – so apologies.

First thing this morning, Strange Bird was 3/1 with every bookmaker on odds checker. She was also 4.1 on Betfair (so a little bigger than 3/1).

Her main market rival, Finish the Story, appeared to be getting backed – so I felt I was safe not issuing her early.

I was hoping her price might drift a little, but instead, she was heavily backed on Betfair.

All of the money down to 3.7 was taken in one hit (a few hundred pounds).

When I saw that happen, I issued the tip – but her price was already starting to go with the bookmakers.

I doubt many of them took anything on her at 3/1 – but Betfair warned them of what was happening.

If the bookmakers have no liabilities on her, then I guess the price might drift out as the off time approaches.

So long as you have secured a price with BOG, I guess it won’t matter.

Suffice to say, at the price and with the staking, I think she will win.

Here’ the rational – and my other thoughts the day.

Lingfield

1:10

Strange Bird really is a horse that needs no introduction to regular readers.

We were on her last season when she dotted up at Plumpton – and we weren’t this season, when she did similar at Lingfield...

That was a mistake on my behalf – one that I don’t intend to repeat.

She was a very easy winner at Lingfield – and whilst she beat little that day, I was a little surprised to see that the handicapper deemed it only worth a 5lb rise. I think he might have been lenient.

I guess that ultimately she only won by a couple of lengths, so he couldn’t really give her much more than 5lbs – but she certainly looked value for a good deal more than that.

The runner up in that race, Leith Hill Legasi, re-opposes today – and whilst, according to the book, there should be very little between them at the revised  terms, I’ll be surprised if Strange Bird can’t confirm the form.

I’ll also be a little surprised if she can’t take care of the favourite, Finish the Story.

He won a very weak race at Southwell last Sunday – and whilst his riders claim will off set the penalty he got for that win, I’m still not sure that he’ll be ideally suited to carrying nearly 12 stone in the Lingfield mud.

If he’s within a fence of the leaders turning in, then I guess Promised Wings could be given a chance - but he’s a horse that tends to get so far behind in his races, he gives himself little chance of success.

With What’s for Tea a stone out of the handicap, that leaves Where’d Ya Hide it and The Flying Column as the two I fear the most.

If this were a better quality race then I wouldn’t fear them very much – because both are massively out of form and look very limited.
However, at this basement level there is always the chance that a change of equipment, or tactics will produce huge improvement.

Where’s Ya Hide It gets a tongue tie and blinkers – plus Paddy Brennan in the saddle: whilst The Flying Column gets cheek pieces and Tom Scudamore (and was sent off favourite last time out).

I guess my point is, there is no such thing as a certainty when you are operating at this level.

I’ve covered my stake on the last 2 named – if the race is won by one of the other 3, more ‘obvious’ dangers, I’ll accept it !

Hopefully that won’t be the case – and Strange Bird will power home unchallenged, again..!

0.75pt win Strange Bird 3/1

In the handicap hurdle at 1:40, John Louis, looks the one to beat.

He was 7/4 last night with Ladbrokes – which would have been very tempting.
However, he’s a general even money shot this morning – which looks about right.

There’s a danger he might even go odds on, so too short for a Top Pick.
Just a mention then.

The best race of the day, is the handicap chase at 2:10.

Our old friend Bincome runs in this and he must have a fair chance of following up his Aintree win, off a mark just 3lb higher.
The trouble is, there are plenty he can be taken on with.

Tolkeins Tango was massively impressive last time out – though todays heavy ground is a worry for him; whilst Ivors King would have a definite chance if fit for his seasonal debut (and the market suggests he is).

You couldn’t categorically rule out any of the remaining 4 runners either –with Paddy the Stout, particularly catching my attention.

He gets to run off a feather weight today – and the conditions will be ideal for him.

There is a chance he will be outclassed – but if this turns in to a war, he could spring a surprise.

At 14/1 I was half tempted…

Finally, Sportsreport looks the one to be on in the handicap chase at 2:40 – but the price of 15/8 looks about right.

Fakenham

It’s hard to look beyond Be Bop Boru in the opener on the Fakenham card – until you see the price..!

Even money is a bit tight – though it’s not easy finding which one will beat him…

Changeofluck, Seaviper and Mistral Rein, all have a chance of sorts.

If forced, I would side with the first named – certainly 14/1 is a fair enough price.

I really thought/hoped we would be on Dashing George in the handicap chase at 2:00.

He did is a massive favour last season over this course and distance, and off an 8lb lower mark – and on the back of a good run last time, you have to fancy his chances of doing the same today.

I guess I was being a bit naive hoping that no one else would notice him.

Superficially, he’s a horse that will be 13 in a fortnight – with form figures that suggest he is in decline.

Unfortunately nowadays people look deeper than that.

He opened at 5/1, which I thought was short – and was then backed into 3/1 !

He’s on the drift this morning - and he might well be 5/1 again, by the off.

I think he could win – but he will need a few things to fall right.

If he had been 8/1 or better, we would be on him. But you can give a chance of sorts to all of his rivals – and a few of them are still improving (he definitely isn’t).

It would all comes down to price.

I certainly wouldn’t get involved at less that 5/1. 6/1 or greater, I would probably take a risk.

You’ll have to make your own minds up as race time approaches…

Six one Away is another one that I thought might go under the radar in the 3:00 race – but again, I was wrong.

He was a mention last time at Ludlow – and ran really well until tiring close home.

He has been dropped 3lb for that run – and cut back by half a mile in trip.

I could see him going close - thought there is a chance that the last time out run flattered him.

I would have taken a chance at 5/1+ - at 5/2, I’ll happily just watch him…

Finally, Thecorrupter is of some interest in the novice hurdle that closes the card.

He caught my eye in a decent bumper at Ascot - but didn’t show much on his hurdling debut at Warwick.

He will need to have improved for that run, but if he has, I think he will go close.

The trouble is, all of the field are unknowns, so there is just too much guesswork involved to make him a tip.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Lingfield 1:10 Strange Bird 0.75pt win 3/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Lingfield 1:40 John Louis (P )

Lingfield 2:10 Paddy the Stout (O )

Lingfield 2:40 Sportsreport (P )

Fakenham 1:00 Changeofluck (O )

Fakenham 2:00 Dashing George (P )

Fakenham 3:00 Six one Away (P )

Fakenham 3:30 Thecorrupter (S )

 

Top Picks

 

Lingfield 1:10 Strange Bird

 

Review of the day

There was no joy with any of todays tips, on what has to be considered a disappointing day…

I should have figured that things weren’t going to go well, after the first race that I tipped in.

I split the stakes, on Suprise Vendor and Back to Bracka – but things didn’t go well for either of them.
For whatever reason, James Reveley decided to hold up confirmed front-runner, Surprise Vendor.

He promptly sulked and was soon at the back of the field, being pushed along.

Quelle Surprise – as our Gaelic friends would say…

Meanwhile, Back to Bracka was still travelling just fine – and with the race panning out nicely in front of him, when he was involved in a mid-air collision jumping the fourth last fence.

Unfortunately he came out of that worst - with his jockey ejected from the side door.

These things happen, I guess…

Next up, it was Bellenos.

He looked in a bit of trouble down the back straight, but when Harry Skelton got after him, there was a good response. So good in fact, that he took up the running rounding the final bend (at which point he traded at 1.25 on Betfair).

However, it looked like that effort might be all he had to offer – and so it proved.

When Ballygarvey and Ulck Du Lin responded, he had nothing left with which to counter.

His third place finish – beaten 9 lengths, is probably as good as he is…

Safran De Cotte put in the most disappointing run of the day.

Backed down to 9/2 favourite, his race was effectively over, when he ploughed through the second fence.

He did manage to hang a round for a bit longer – but he never looked like being involved in the finish.
That will be the last chance I give him for quite some time.

Via Sundown ran a good race at Ascot - but he ultimately finished a well beaten 6^th .

The race was won impressively by The Young Master - he really is a horse going places.

I was half tempted by him – but there was little margin in the 3/1 price against the toughest field he had ever faced.

There’s not a great deal you can do in those circumstances…

Finally, a mid race blunder cost Sea Beat whatever chance he had in the Ladbroke.

To be honest, I wasn’t optimistic when I saw he had drifted to 30 on Betfair, at the off.

If he was going to feature prominently, I expected him to be well backed.
I’ve no doubt there will be other days for him…

The mentions had a bad dose of seconditis – with 3 of the 5 finishing runner-up (and it would have been 4, if Puffin Billy hadn’t demolished the final fence at Ascot).

A day that it is best to move quickly on from, I feel…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 20th

There is NH racing this afternoon at Ascot, Haydock, Newcastle and Fairyhouse.

As was the case the last time Ascot and Haydock shared the Saturday spotlight, the racing is excellent - there really was little need for me to look elsewhere for tips.

In fairness, the Newcastle card isn’t too bad (it is better than most midweek cards) – and whilst the Fairyhouse card generally doesn’t really set the pulse racing, the presence of Un De Sceaux in the opener most certainly does !

Make sure you tune in early to watch him blitz his rivals !!

With regard to tips, then we have ended up with 6 of them, across 5 races…

The majority were issued at 6:00 yesterday evening, which is not something I really like to do – but I think subsequent events helped justify my actions…

The on-line version of the Racing Post is released at 8:00 – and it identified Safran De Cotte and Via Sundown as two of the Pricewise tips for today.

If I’d not sent them early, then that would have given us two issues.

Firstly, the prices of the horses are instantly crushed – so we would be relying on the early morning reversion by some of the bookmakers, in order to get on.
And secondly, I would have been very reticent to tip the horses at all…

Partially because of the issue with the prices – and partially because it would seem a bit poor tipping two Pricewise horses the following morning…

I’ve said before, but it’s a tricky business this tipping…
Balancing all of the different components – and still making a profit.

Let’s hope I got the balance right this afternoon.

Here’s the logic behind the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Ascot

1:50

As I’m sure most of you will recall, we were on Bellenos the last time he ran.

That was in a 2 mile handicap chase at the Ascot meeting run in the middle of November.
I was very keen on him that day – but he ran no sort of a race.

The only thing was, the run seemed just too bad to be true – so it was a bit of a relief to find out subsequently that he finished lame…

That said, it still slightly tempered my enthusiasm for him today – but at a bigger price, in a much smaller field, I felt he was worth another risk.

In fairness, there may be less runners today, but most of them can be given a chance.

Based on the Ascot run, then Lancetto is the one to beat – but he is rising 10 and has been installed as favourite. If he wins, I can accept that…

Ballgarvey was also potentiality interesting. He is potentially well handicapped – but has been off the track for along time – and I’m not sure that the track/trip combination will provide quite the stamina test he requires.

Of the others, then I expected Bellenos to get the better of Ulck de Lin last time – and I expect the same today.

Malibu Son is improving – but today represents quite a step up in class for him. At the prices, I can accept watching him win. Whilst Last Last Shot was a bit disappointing last time – and looks in the grip of the handicapper (even if he’s the sort that Venetia tends to excel with !).

In summary, in an open race, I think Bellenos has a big chance, provided he can bounce back to his best after a disappointing run last time out.

0.5pt win Bellenos 5/1

3:00

When I looked at this race, I was quite taken by how many of the runners, I was prepared to oppose…

Top weight Hublon des Obeaux will need to be borderline Gold Cup class, if he is going to defy a rating of 161. Ofcourse, he comes here on the back of a mighty run in the Hennessy – but I’m sure his colossal effort that day must have taken a toll…

Similarly Hey Big Spender arrives on the back of a huge last time out performance. But he got an 11lb hike in the weights s for that – and will be 12 in a fortnights time.

I’m not saying he can’t win – but he will be doing very well to do so.

The trip would be a big concern for Sound Investment; Whilst Paul Nichols other runner, Polisky, just doesn’t like to come home first (literally, he stops when he hits the front !).

Up to Something doesn’t look particularly well handicapped – which left me 4 to focus on…

The fast improving, The Young Master is probably the most interesting of the quartet.

He ‘won’ the Badge Ale trophy last time out – but is 14lb higher today. As a consequence, he is taking on much better animals today. He might be up to the job – but a price of 3/1 doesn’t leave much margin for error.

Ardkilly Witness can be backed at double that price - and with a first time visor in place, he looks sure to run a big race.

He may just lack a bit of class – but I would expect him to run very well.

I could also see Le Reve running a big race. He ran well enough in the Hennessey last time under an aggressive ride. It should be possible to ride him a little more conservatively in todays smaller field – and that should see him run even better.
The ground is the worry with him – as he doesn’t want it too soft.
Via Sundown will have no issue with the ground. He will also have no issue with the trip or the tack.

He was a very progressive novice last season  - and the big question is whether he has sufficient talent to justify a mark of 137.

I’m optimistic that he does - and I see the re-application of the cheekpieces that he wore in his native France as a positive sign.

He’s a risky selection in that he was pulled up last time out (in the Hennessy) – but I’m optimistic that he’ll be able to bounce back to form this afternoon and give us a good run for our money.

0.25pt win Via Sundown 16/1

3:30

I maybe should have left this race alone, but I simply couldn’t resist a small play on the bottom horse, Sea Beat…

He’s a horse that I noted both last season, when he won a maiden hurdle at Naas – and more recently when he was a strong finishing third in a conditions race on the flat, at Galway…

On both occasions he struck me as a horse likely to win a big handicap hurdle this season  - I just didn’t expect it to be the Ladbroke !

And that’s part of his attraction here. As I’ve said before, I’m a big fan of his trainer Arthur Moore – there are few better target trainers in Ireland – so I find it fascinating that he has targeted Sea Beat at this race.
There will be numerous races run at Leopardstown and Limerick over the Christmas period that he could have gone for – but no, he’s opted instead for Ascot.

Ofcourse, it’s a very valuable race – which I’m sure was the deal clincher - but all the same…

If he’s not up to the job, then I’ll be a bit surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the top 4 in the betting.
Actival, Shelford, Balgary and Clondaw Warrior all have negatives to overcome  – but I’ll be a little surprised if at least one of them doesn’t overcome them and run a huge race.

Actival and Balgary literally could be anything (which makes them potentially very interesting) – though if the ground isn’t too soft, then Clondaw Warrior is probably the one to beat.

0.25pt win Sea Beat 14/1

The Tourard Man looks the most likely winner of the opening race on the card – but that’s what the market says, so no prizes for originality there…

In the novice chase I could see Puffin Billy getting the better of favourite Irish Saint.
I could also see Grand Vision running much better than his dismissive odds (16/1) suggest he will…

Whilst the Long Walk hurdle should really go to Zarkandar.

I could see Aubusson running well. But he’s rated 7lb inferior to Zarkandar – and Lizzie Kelly is unable to claim (another 7lb), therefore he has a stone to find on the book.
That might be a bit too much…

Haydock

12:30

When assessing this race, two things struck me:

Firstly, it is going to be run on very heavy ground (which I don’t think will suit all of the runners); and secondly, there is a frightening amount of pace in the race (which again, will not be to everyones liking).

Based simply on handicap marks and recent form, I think De Faoithsdream is the one to beat. However, I can’t see him relishing the ground – and he is one of a number that like to make the running. In short, his chances could be severely compromised by the way the race unfolds.

Suprise Vendor is another who likes to make the running – in fact, he doesn’t just like to, he insists on it !  

In short, he will go blazing off – with the pace of a 5 furlong sprinter, if necessary  - and he will make the running.

That is likely to compromise the chances of De Faoithesdream, Shooters Wood and Stagecoach Pearl, all of whom would also like to make the running – given the chance.

Ofcourse, there is a possibility that they will be able to tuck in behind and still get a nice run – but on balance, I think their chances are more likely to be negatively affected.

The strong pace in heavy ground, could easily see this turn into a stamina test –and Presumably that is part of the reason why Greywell Boy has been backed.

I can see the argument for him – but he looks to have very little in hand of his handicap mark.

It’s impossible to say whether Back to Bracka has anything in hand of his mark – as it was raised 8lb for his last time out win at Wetherby.

However that was in a decent race – and he won despite clouting a few fences.

He is certainly not short of stamina – and the softer Haydock fences should help him.

In a race that could easily be run to suit - and on ground that he will have no issue with, I thought him the most likely winner of the race.

The other one I want on side in the race, is the afore mentioned Surprise Vendor.

As I said, he will make the running – so the other potential pace setters in the race are an irrelevance to him !

He is quite well handicapped, will have no issue with the ground – and in the shape of James Reveley, has a jockey riding, who is at the very top of his game.

There is a chance that the race could become a bit tactical (in a weird kind of a way !) – and if that is the case and Reveley can ride a waiting race from the front, I think there is a possibility that he could spring a surprise.

A fascinating contest, whatever !

0.25pt win Suprise Vendor 20/1

0.25pt win Back to Bracka 9/2

2:05

The key to Safran De Cotte, is heavy ground – in fact, not just heavy ground, near unraceable ground – and I’m optimistic that’s what he’ll get today at Haydock.

When he gets those conditions, he is a very good horse as his record of 3 wins from 7 runs, testifies.

It was at this meeting 3 years ago, that he romped home in a handicap hurdle off a mark of 119 (he runs off a mark of 121 today). The ground that day was desperate – and he absolutely loved it.

Safran De Cotte has spent the past 3 seasons running over fences and whilst he is a proficient enough fencer, he is often let down by his size (he’s not the biggest of animals). Consequently the soft fences at Haydock and the low weight he has to carry are also positives for his case.

In fairness, he was pulled up when favourite for this race last season - but he was running off a 8lb higher mark that day – it was stronger race – and the ground wasn’t as bad.

I would be hopeful that he can at least improve on that performance !!

In terms of his rivals, then whilst I respect most of them, non of them look particularly well handicapped.

Conditions should suit both Firebird Flyer and Howards Legacy - but both are running off career high marks.

If he can put his best foot forward, Safran De Cotte should certainly run a very big race this afternoon.

0.5pt win Safran de Cotte 8/1

In the opener on the card, Goohar looks the one to beat – but 9/4 is plenty short enough about a horse who had a hard race just 8 days ago…

Whilst in the handicap hurdle at 2:40, Run Ructions Run is the one of interest – but there is no margin in a price of 4/1.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Early

Ascot 1:50 Bellenos 0.5pt win 5/1

Ascot 3:00 Via Sundown 0.25pt win 16/1

Ascot 3:30 Sea Beat 0.25pt win 14/1

Haydock 2:05 Safran De Cotte 0.5pt win 8/1

Late

Haydock 12:30 Suprise Vendor 0.25pt win 20/1

Haydock 12:30 Back to Bracka 0.25pt win 9/2

Mentions

Ascot 12:45 The Tourad Man (P )

Ascot 1:15 Puffin Billy (P )

Ascot 2:25 Zarkandar (P )

Haydock 12:00 Goohar (P )

Haydock 2:40 Run Ructions Run (O )

Top Picks

None

Review of the day

There was no joy with either of todays tips…

Tuskar Rock raced prominently for a circuit and a half at Uttoxeter – but was beaten as soon as he was passed.

As I said this morning, he was a risky ‘value’ based selection.

A poor run was always a possibility.

My one consolation from the race was that I was unable to tip Dixie Bull.

He had drifted to 9/1 at the off and at that price, we would have been on him.

I would therefore have been a little sickened to see him get the worst of a protracted dual with the well backed favourite…

The days other tip, Little Boy Boru, ran a much more solid race at Ascot – though never looked likely to win.

For whatever reason, the other jockeys in the race allowed AP to dictate a modest pace on the favourite, Batavir.

It looked from a long way out, as if he was holding all the aces – and so it proved.

AP quickened the tempo off the home bend and the others never got within touching distance.
Little Boy Boru had been held up out the back, so didn’t really have much of a chance.

He ran on late to grab fourth place – which was probably as good as he was ever going to manage, in the circumstances.

Both of the days mentions put in fair performances:

Garrahalish found one too good at Ascot – as I feared he might.

He’s such a game, honest horse, the handicapper will always know exactly where he stands with him, which will make staying ahead of his mark a bit tricky.

Manballandall, is a completely different kettle of fish.

He was settled out the back – and never really put in a race that was won from the front, by the short priced favourite.

I actually thought the run of Manballandall was quite eye-catching – and with a few more pounds off his back, he could certainly be of interest next time, provided he gets to run in the right race…

Just a reminder that I will open the tipping window at 6:00 this evening – just in case I find anything that can be tipped for tomorrow…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 19th

They race this afternoon at Ascot and Uttoxeter.

I have to admit, I expected more from today’s fixtures – particularly the one at Ascot.

I know I’ve managed to find a couple of tips – but that’s mainly because I feel I’m in a good place for tipping at the moment.

Opportunities on the day are few and far between.

The majority of the fields at Ascot are too small and uncompetitive to consider getting involved: and whilst the field sizes are better at Uttoxeter, the state of the ground will turn the races in to wars of attrition.

In all probability the races at Uttoxeter won’t be won by the best runners – they will be won by the fittest…

That explains why I’ve gone for a Venetia horse there – the Ascot tip was selected for more conventional reasons.

Here’s a bit more behind the logic – and a few other thoughts…

Ascot

3:05

I’m quite keen to get involved in this race because of the two market leaders…

Batavir and Spartan Angel have similar profiles, in so much as they represent powerful yards (David Pipe and Nicky Henderson) and are relatively unexposed…

They are the sort that tend to be under-priced, simply because of those reasons – not because of anything they have achieved on the course.

In fairness, as unexposed horses from big yards, there is a reasonable chance that they will improve on what they have achieved so far – but they will need to, if they are to win today…

Third favourite, Dream Deal, will also need to improve on what he has done previously – but that is a distinct possibility, as he looked a progressive sort when scoring on his seasonal debut at Exeter. All the same the handicapper has taken few chances, giving him a 9lb rise for that win. He will have his work cut out following up in this better class race.

Without doubt, the one to beat on current form, is Little Boy Boru.

Wins at Sandown and Plumpton, were followed by a very creditable third at Newbury 3 weeks ago.

That was achieved in a slightly better race than todays – and Little Boy Boru looked set to play a big hand in the finish that day, until seemingly finding the trip a bit too far.

He is cut back by a couple of furlongs today, which I’m sure will suit him much better.

He will have no issues with the ground (whatever it might be !) – and in Harry Bannister, has a 5lb claimer on board, who is riding particularly well at the moment.

The other nice thing about this race, is that outside the top 4 in the betting, you have to be quite creative to give much a chance.

I guess Long Lunch could bounce back from a poor run last time; whilst Kuilsriver is potentially well enough handicapped, if he returns to the fray in top form (which is far from guaranteed).

In short, Little Boy Boru is a solid selection, in a potentially very winnable race – lets hope that things pan out accordingly…

0.5pt win Little Boy Boru 7/1

There are very few other opportunities on the Ascot card…

In the novice handicap chase at 1:20, I was half interested in Garrahalish.

You won’t see many better jumping novices this season –and that ability will always serve him well.
However he is running in a very tight little race – in which there is likely to be plenty of pace (and he likes to race prominently).

I’ll be surprised if he’s not thereabouts at the end of the race – but I won’t be overly surprised if one of his rivals is too good for him.

A price of 7/2 is probably about right – so he’ll have to be a mention.

Uttoxeter

2:55

When I first looked at this is race last night, Dixie Bull was the one that interested me…

Carrying bottom weight and with a 5lb claimer on board, has to be an advantage – and he ran well enough on his seasonal debut at Huntington last month.

I still respect his chances - but he was backed last night – and there now looks to be little margin in the best quote of 6/1.

Instead, I have switched my allegiance to the Venetia Williams trained Tuskar Rock.

As I said in the introduction, I think racing at Uttoxeter this afternoon, is going to be about the survival of the fittest – and the fact is, nobody gets their horses fitter than Venetia does.

Tuskar Rock is not the most consistent of animals – but there is little doubt that he is well handicapped, if on a going day, today.
He has already won twice in handicap chases off marks higher than he races off today – once over this very course and distance (from a mark 11lb higher).
He was disappointing when last seen at Chepstow in November - but I’m prepared to put a line through that run and judge him on his previous victory also at Chepstow, a the end of October.

He won well that day – and gets to run off just a 4lb higher mark today.

Clearly he is no certainty – but I think he has as good a chance as any, in a race which I think is potentially very open.
He also has Venetia in his corner – and on a day like today, that has to be a big plus.

0.25pt win Tuskar Rock 10/1

Manballandall, is the only other runner on the card, that I think worthy of a mention, in the 1:45 race…

He showed nothing on his seasonal debut at Newbury last month – but that was after a years absence…

He had certainly shown plenty on his 2 previous runs over hurdles – so the question is, how much ability does he retain..?
That’s an impossible one to answer – but the 18/1 on offer, did tempt me, for a minimum bet.
You don’t have to be right very often at those kind of prices, to make things pay.…

Certainty he should love the ground – though lugging top weight in it, is a different matter.
I’ll leave you each to draw your own conclusions on whether to get involved…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Ascot 3:05 Little Boy Boru 0.5pt win 7/1

 

Late

 

Uttoxeter 2:55 Tuskar Rock 0.25pt win 10/1

 

Mentions

 

Ascot 1:20 Garrahalish (O )

Uttoxeter 1:45 Manballandall (S )

 

Top Picks

 

None 

Review of the day

Well, he’s never let us down before – and he clearly was in no mood to start doing so today…

Dickie really is the man

To be honest, I found the whole thing quite baffling.
As I said this morning, I couldn’t understand how Trickaway was a 7/2 shot – and despite tipping him early – and to a relatively big stake, it made no difference to his price.

Maybe people had got it into their heads that because the horse has a slightly odd head carriage he’s ungenuine – well he doesn’t look ungenuine to me !

A little green perhaps – I suspect there is a fair bit more improvement in him – but he’s already demonstrated quite a high level of ability.

My biggest fear was always going to be his jumping – but it was his rivals who were poor in that department – though to be honest, I think he would have beaten them just as comfortably, if they had jumped well.

If only it were always so simple !

There were also some interesting goings on with the days mentions…

Hand on heart, I should have tipped Broadway Symphony this morning.

The trouble is, it’s never going to be easy tipping a horse at 11/2, when you‘ve seen him at 14/1.

I was also a little fearful of Premier Portrait in the first time blinkers – so it would have been a real sickener to see him power away from Broadway Symphony after the last.

Maybe we got lucky – I just need to consider what I should actually have done in that situation.

Later on the Towcester card, Newton Thistle ran away with the handicap chase in a way that you don’t often see…

I didn’t think there was a lot of value in the early 3/1 – but 13/8 at the off, told me connections meant business.

And the horse was never out of second gear in recording a facile 54 length victory.

I will genuinely be intrigued to see how the handicapper reacts to it.

I honestly think he could get a 2 stone rise in the weights for todays romp – which is virtually unheard of.

I’m sure connections will be delighted with the win – but I couldn’t help feeling that maybe jockey David Bass should have eased off a but up the home straight.
They could have run up a sequence with the horse – but that won’t be anywhere near as easy, now…

At Exeter, Pull the Chord was very disappointing the handicap hurdle – as was Alder Mairi in the novice handicap chase.

I don’t think either ran close to the level they are capable of.

Whilst in the finale, Midnight Request ran OK without ever threatening.
He didn’t really look like a winner waiting to happen.

So, 5 winners from the last 7 tips – not too bad really.

As I said to one of you guys last night, a week can be a long time in racing – it’s always important not to lose the faith when things aren’t going brilliantly – they can turn very quickly indeed !

TVB.