Daily write-up - Apr 10th (Aintree Day 2)

Day 2 at Aintree.

After a warm day, there was selective watering of the track yesterday evening.

In fairness, the ground was riding pretty much as I expected yesterday: quick – but safe.
If they maintain that for the remainder of the meeting, I won’t have any complaints.

I’ll see how the next 2 days go, but my suspicion is that I may need to radically change the way I handle these major festivals…

The problem is my staking system – which is far too restrictive to enable me to deal effectively with the huge, competitive fields that these big meeting attract.

I’ll stick with it for this meeting for consistency – but I just feel it is stopping me from achieving what I want to…

So far as today is concerned, then I have tipped a few horses (to small stakes !) – and I quite fancy them all.

However, most of the races are very competitive, so it is also likely to be worth paying attention to the explicit and implicit mentions in the write-up.

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and my other thoughts…

1:40

This race has a very similar feel to the closing contest from yesterdays card.
A big field – but probably not as competitive as numbers suggest…

The market is headed by the 4 year old The Saint James, who arrives here on the back of a very eye catching run in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham.

The fact he runs in this race as a 4 year old seems quite significant – and AP taking the mount means that he has been missed by no one.
I think he has a decent chance - but 4/1 is way too short to consider getting involved…

Instead, I’ve opted to split stakes between a couple of the horses who follow him in the market.

The first of those is the Paul Nichols trained Pearl Swan.

He was a very decent juvenile a couple of seasons back, and was still in contention for a place when falling at the last in the 2012 Triumph hurdle.

He has not run much since then however, with injury keeping him off the track for 18 months prior to his run in the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham in November.

He was pulled up that day and only reappeared at the festival last month, when he ran an excellent sixth in the Martin Pipe hurdle.

There is a strong possibility that he will improve for that run – and it seems quite significant that Nichols applies blinkers for the first time today.

I’m sure that his rating of 138 under-estimates his ability, so he looks likely to take a bit of beating.

The other one I want on side is Some Buckle.

We were on him last time, when he ran really well to finish fifth in the Imperial Cup at Sandown.

He was a little lucky not to finish even closer that day and if he improves for todays step back up in trip, he is also likely to run a mighty race.

Certainly his narrow defeat to Glingerburn looks strong form – and his rating of 135 very workable.

There are a number of other interesting sorts in the race, particularly the Irish pair  Knights Parade and Daneking.

However, outside of The Saint John, the one I am most fearful of is Dell ’Arca.

I tipped him at Cheltenham but he took a fall early in the Coral Cup. Provided that hasn’t left his mark, then I can see him running a very big race this afternoon.
That said, he is more exposed than both Pearl Swan and Some Buckle and I just feel that those 2 are more likely winners of the contest.

0.25pt win Pearl Swan 10/1

0.125pt win Some Buckle 10/1

2:15

This looks a very weak for a grade 2 contest, with Glingerburn and Qewy seemingly standing clear of their rivals.

In truth, neither of them are yet world beaters – but both have shown reasonable levels of form and also have scope for further improvement.

Glingerburn is unbeaten in four hurdle races this season, following 18 months on the side lines. He has improved with each run and his most recent defeat of Bristol de Mai, is decent form (the runner up finished third in the 4 year old hurdle yesterday).

I do have some concerns about how he will handle todays speed test – but I still think he is the one to beat.

That said, I am hopefully that Qewy will have his measure…

102 rated on the flat, he was a massively impressive winner at Newbury on only his second run over hurdles – and whilst a little disappointing on his subsequent run in the Supreme novices at Cheltenham, that was a red hot race.

His still managed to finish a creditable fifth – and I don’t think the course would have particularly suited him.

Me feeling is the quicker track at Aintree will be far more to his liking, so provided he has recovered from his Cheltenham exertions, he should take all the beating this afternoon…

Outside the main two, it is difficult to find much to enthuse about…

Qewy holds Cardinal Water on Newbury form; and whilst I can believe that the strong travelling Vago Collones will cope with a step down in trip, 2 miles at Aintree maybe a bit too much.

Cyrus Darius is impossible to get a handle on – but could potentially be very useful; whilst I could also see Jolly Cracked It out running his odds.

However, I do think that the finish is likely to be fought out by the top 2 in the market – and the odds available, there really could only be one selection.

0.5pt win Qewy 11/2

2:50

I did consider tipping Irish Cavalier in this – but he was pricewised last night, so that effectively put an end to that idea !

In fairness, he was a speculative selection, based mainly on the fact that I thought he offered a bit of value at around 11/1.

He certainly wasn’t a strong fancy, which is why I was prepared to drop him once a couple of points had been shaved off his price.

In truth, the race should be won by Saphir Du Rheu – provided he jumps round OK.
He is different class to his rival – but that fact that he has failed to complete in 2 of his 3 chases to date, means that taking 7/4 about him this afternoons is only for the brave (foolish?!).

With him out the way however, it looks a very open race, with no stand out performer.

I’d certainly be happy to oppose Irish Saint on ground he is likely to find too quick, over a trip that might stretch him.

Irish Cavalier looked the obvious one as he is in good form and both trip and ground will be idea for him.

That said, you don’t normally expect a grade 1 chase to be won by a horse rated 146 !

Of the others, then I wouldn’t put a big run past Close House – though equally, you couldn’t support him with any confidence; whilst I could definitely see Rawnaq outrunning his odds. In fact EW at 16/1+, he might be worth a small play…

3:25

This looks a bit of a minefield and I could give you good reason why non of the runners will win !

Of them all, then Champagne Fever looks the most solid option – but he is plenty short enough in the betting and I am not entirely convinced that he has the class required to take a race such as this.

In fact, he looked held by Don Cossack, when taking a fall at the final fence on his penultimate run, so it is difficult to understand why that one is a bigger price today.

The trouble with Don Cossack, is that his jumping can be sketchy – and I’m not convinced he wants ground as quick as he will get his afternoon…

Quick ground would also be a concern for Al Ferof and Sire de Grugy – as both would prefer softer.

Al Ferof would also prefer a bit further – whilst Sire de Grugy is unproven over anything other than 2 miles…

I could fancy Balder Succes - if he hadn’t run at Cheltenham. However he did – and that is likely to have taken the edge off him…

Cue Card didn’t run at Cheltenham – and that is because he has been battling against injury problems all season.

Apparently he is over them all now and raring to go. If that is the case, then he will take all the beating this afternoon.

At his peak, he was more talented than any of the rivals he meets this aftrnooon – and although he has not put in a peak performance for a good while, there remains the possibility that he has not yet lost his ability.

In truth, it does feel like the last chance saloon for him today – but if the Cue Card that ran Sprinter Sacre to 4 lengths here 2 years ago turns up, then his rivals are unlikely to see which way he goes…

In a potentially very open contest, then I wouldn’t completely dismiss the claims of any of the outsiders – though wins for either Simply Ned or Wishfull Thinking, would be hard to take !

The latter in particular must have some sort of a chance based on his run at this course in October – but he didn’t go a yard last time and it would be impossible to support him on the back of that.

0.25pt win Cue Card 15/2

4:05

30 runners over the National fences – and I thought the previous race was tricky !

There is an argument that I should have ducked this race completely – but I simply wouldn’t have forgiven myself if I had not tipped Rajdhani Express again, after his run at Cheltenham.

Of all my Cheltenham tips, he was the one I was keenest on – and I still feel he was one that got away…

Superficially, finishing eighth, beaten over 7 lengths hardly smacks of unlucky – and he wasn’t. However, I am absolutely sure he is better than that form suggests…

Simply, he spent the entire race stuck behind a wall of horses. He started on the back foot and Sam Waley Cohen was never able to ride a race on him.

I hate the fact that we’ve got to take a shorter price in a bigger field and over the National fences – but I just think he has a massive performance in him – and today could very well be the day he delivers it.
If that is the case, I think he will win – regardless of the opposition.

That said, I do want to have another ex Cheltenham tip on side…

Theatre Guide was disappointing at Cheltenham – so he will need to bounce back from that.

However, the handicapper has dropped him 5lb – and he could well be suited by todays shorter trip.

He is now a very well handicapped horse – who could still have improvement in him.

He will love the ground – and if he takes to the fences, he could run a massive race.

Needless to say, there are plenty of others with decent chances, though most of them are at the top of the market.

I could see Ruben Cotter, Eastlake, Monetaire and Standing Ovation all running well – but if Rajdahani Express takes to the fences and gets a bit of luck in running, I think he will take all the beating.

0.25pt win Rajdhani Express 10/1

0.125pt win Theatre Guide 25/1

4:40

The market seems to have this race about right, with it struggling to split the form horse, Vyta Du Roc and the potential superstar, Minella Rocco.

I think it most likely that one of them will take the race – and of the two, I would prefer Minella Rocco.

That said, he faces very different conditions today to those he has faced so far in his short career, so does involve a lot of guess work.

Furthermore, if he is to win, I would expect to see him strong in the market – so his early morning drift would have to be considered a negative.

In truth, it wouldn’t be a massive shock if both the market leaders under performed, though finding something to take them on with, is a different matter…

Pricewise pick Alpha Des Obeaux looks quite interesting at a price: whist I could also see Zeroshadesofgrey running a big race for a 20/1 shot.

In summary, a race where it is difficult to have a strong opinion – and therefore one that it was quite easy to swerve.

5:15

The bumper closes the card – and it’s not a race that I have a strong view on..

I tipped Bellshill at Cheltenham – and he was disappointing. I would expect him to run better today – but whether he will run well enough to win, is a different matter…

At a huge price, Chitu catches my eye – but it’s a gut feel and certainly not a tipping prospect !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Aintree 1:40 Pearl Swan 0.25pt win 10/1

Aintree 1:40 Some Buckle 0.125pt win 10/1

Aintree 2:15 Qewy 0.5pt win 11/2

Aintree 3:25 Cue Card 0.25pt win 15/2

Aintree 4:05 Rajdhani Express 0.25pt win 10/1

Aintree 4:05 Theatre Guide 0.125pt win 25/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Aintree 2:50 Irish Cavalier (O )

Aintree 2:50 Rawnaq (S )

Aintree 4:40 Minella Rocco (S )

Aintree 5:15 Chitu (S )

 

Top Picks

 

None

 

Review of the day

There wasn’t too much to get excited about this afternoon, on a day when a number of the races were decided by jockeyship, as much as equine ability…

I certainly felt that was the case in the opening event on the card, where Ruby made all on Clarcam, jumping from fence to fence and getting his fractions spot on.

On the other hand, I was disappointed by the ride that Brendan Powell gave to Val de Law.

He tracked Josses Hill, who jumped right at most of his fences, taking Val de Law with him.

Despite that, Val De Law still ran really well – and whilst the jockeys probably didn’t make the difference between victory and defeat, they certainty exaggerated the superiority of the winner over the third.

It was a similar story with the next tip to run, Menorah.

Dickie kept him wide in a race where Noel Fehily got Silviniaco Conti settled and jumping.

Menorahs mistakes cost him the race – whereas the perfect ride from Fehily probably won it for Silviniaco…

Big Fella Thanks and Quinz represented us in the Foxhunters, but the race was as good as over for the former, at the very first fence.

He hit serious traffic problems caused by a couple of fallers and lost over 20 lengths in the incident.

He did make a lot of the ground back up – but I’m sure it would have taken its toll late on.
We never got to find out for sure however, as he unshipped his rider (eventually) at Bechers Brook.

Big Fella Thanks ran a reasonable enough race, but there wasn’t enough in the old legs to ever really threaten the principals.

The final tip of the day to run was Arnaud – and the betting accurately foretold his fortune.

He was a big drifter on the BF – and whilst I felt he travelled quite well for the first half of the race, he was quickly beaten shortly after that.

It was a disappointing effort…

The mentions on the other hand, had a blinding day !

Intense Tango didn’t manage to take advantage of Hargem under-performing: but Jezki took full advantage of Artic Fires final hurdle fall.

However, best was saved until last, when Tagliatelle demonstrated just how unlucky we’d been at Cheltenham by coming home first in the finale off a mark 5lb higher.

I did consider tipping him last night, but 10/1 seemed a tight price in a very open race.

These things happen (as we know only too well !)

TVB.

Daily write-up - Apr 9th (Aintree Day 1)

Day 1 of the Aintree Grand National Meeting.

Following a couple of weeks of dry weather, I was expecting the going to be riding on the quick side for the opening day of the Aintree meeting.

I guess that might be the case, but significant watering earlier in the week has cast a question mark over things…

Apparently 5mm of water was put on the Mildmay course on Tuesday morning and the ground is now officially described as Good to Soft - Hmmmm….

That seems to cover most bases – anywhere between quick and slow, then !

As always, we’ll only know for sure when it is too late (ie. after the races have been run).

Both Arnaud and Menorah would have a strong preference for fast ground.

They can act on softer – but such ground will better suit some of their rivals.

Let’s hope the temperature are soaring on Merseyside this afternoon !

Here’s the rationale for the days tips – and thoughts on the other races on the card…

Aintree

1:40

This is a race that I simply have to tip in…

The top 4 in the betting, all ran last time out, in the Arkle at Cheltenham over 2 miles.

They were all destroyed by Un De Sceux that day – and maybe not too surprisingly have elected not to take him on again at this meeting.
However, in order to avoid him, all 4 have had to step up half a mile in trip (Un De Sceux runs over 2 miles on Saturday).

I guess it is possible that is by design for one or two of them – but I suspect it is more likely out of necessity.

When you couple that with the fact that they all probably had quite a hard race fruitlessly chasing Un de Sceux at Cheltenham, you can see that the race should be ripe for a turn up…

However, there are only 2 other runners in it – and neither of them appear to have quite the class of the 4 market leaders.

That said, both Cash and Go and Val De Law have already shown themselves fairly decent sorts – with the latter in particular, open to plenty of improvement.

Val De Law has only raced 6 times in his life – and just the twice over fences.

They are his only 2 runs in this country and on the first of them, he was in process of giving the top class Southfield Theatre a real race, when he came down at the final fence at Exeter.

On his only other run, he was caught close home by Cash and Go, after sauntering 4 lengths clear of him after the second last.

Strictly on the book, Cash and Go should confirm that form today – but he is the far more exposed animal – whilst I suspect that Val De Law is learning and improving with every race.

In truth, he will need to have learnt and improved quite a bit to get the better of Vibrato Voltat today, as that one is rated 18lb superior to him.

However, I’m sure that Val De Law is significantly better than his current rating – and there are good reason why Vibrato Voltat won’t run up to form today.

In the circumstances, I think it is worth a small risk on Val de Law at a big price – and for those of you who are feeling particularly bold, a reverse forecast on him and Cash and Go is unlikely to be the daftest bet you have ever placed…

0.25pt win Val De Law 22/1

2:15

I did consider tipping Intense Tango EW in this - but I suspect we’d just be playing for the place part of the bet.

At 16/1 ¼ the odds, I might have been prepared to do that (with the slight possibility of a bonus win) – however as 14/1 1/5 odds was the best on offer, and I can pass on that…

The reality is, that Hargem is likely to outclass his rivals today – provided he has recovered from his run at Cheltenham in the Triumph hurdle.

It’s impossible to know for sure whether he will have done – but he didn’t have the hardest of races to finish third, so my feeling is that he will be fine today.

He will certainly love the quicker ground – and simply, his form is at a different level to that of his rivals.

If you support Intense Tango it is the hope that Hargem under performs…

Even if he does, then Bristol De Mai could well have the beating of Intense Tango.

He finished in front of her at Kelso last time – and with no change in the weights, could well do so again this afternoon.

That said, I would expect the quicker ground to better suit Intense Tango.

The other one who should be battling for a position in the frame, is Devilment.

He finished fourth in the Triumph, 10 lengths behind Hargem.
His chances of turning the tables on that one are remote – but he still has a decent chance of finishing in the money.

2:50

As I’m sure you will recall, I was pretty keen on Menorah for the Ryanair chase at Cheltenham.

However, his connections opted not to run him in that race, deciding instead to save him for today.
I can understand their logic: Menorah has generally performed better at Aintree than he has at Cheltenham, and he will be a fresher horse today than most of his rivals.

Whether he will be quite good enough to win, is a different matter – though based purely on the form book, he does look to have every chance…

Certainly, there is little between Menorah and second favourite, Silviniaco Conti.

The two met on their first 2 runs of this season, with Menorah coming out on top at Wetherby and Silviniaco gaining revenge at Haydock.

The Haydock form is probably a fairer reflection of their respective abilities – however Menorah was only 2 lengths adrift of Silviniaco that day, having looked likely to get the better of him, jumping the last.

Todays quicker ground will be in Menorahs favour – as will the fact he swerved Cheltenham.

In short, I think he is a good bet to beat Silviniaco today…

I’m not quite so confident about him beating Holywell – but at the prices, I’m prepared to take a risk.

That one was big improver at the back end of last season (when blinkers were applied and the ground quickened up). He beat Ma Filleule at Cheltenham and then followed up at this meeting in the grade 1 novice chase.

He did little of note this season prior to running an excellent fourth in the Gold Cup.

That really was a huge performance on ground he wouldn’t have liked and based on that form he is clearly the one to beat today.

However, there is a chance that the run has taken the edge off him and his price of 2/1 leaves little margin for error.

I’ll be a little surprised if any of the outsiders are good enough to seriously get

involved, so I make this a shoot out between Holywell and Menorah.

At 4 times the price, there really was only one path I could ever take…

0.5pt win Menorah 8/1

3:25

All things being equal, I’ll be a little surprised if this race isn’t won by either Arctic Fire or Jezki.

The trouble is, with only 6 runners in the race, and no confirmed front-runner, there is the distinct possibility that all things won’t be equal…

So much is going to depend on race tactics, it’s almost impossible to bet in the race with any confidence.

If there is an end to end gallop, then I would expect Artic Fire to pick them off late on.

However, if the early pace is limited and Jezki strikes half a mile out, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him hang on.

In other scenarios, either Rock on Ruby or Blue Heron could attempt to make all.

Like I say, tricky…

Most likely, I would expect Rock on Ruby to lead early: Jezki to take it up round the home turn – and he and Arctic Fire to battle it out up the run in.

Which one wins, will depend on the pace in the race.
In summary, an easy race to pass on…

4:05

Despite there being 30 runners and the National fences, this is a race which I felt was very much worth getting involved with…

Firstly, over half the field can be easily eliminated from calculations: whist I also think there are question marks hanging over a couple of the market principals.

On the Fringe is the obvious place to start. He won the Foxhunters at Cheltenham – but whether he will have the pace for today’s shorter trip on faster ground, is debatable. There is also the chance that the Cheltenham run will have left its mark…

The other one I want o oppose at the prices, is last years winner, Warne.

I tipped him last season but that was mainly because it was a very weak race. Todays contest is much stronger – and whilst I would expect him to run well, I would also expect there to be one or two too good for him…

I’m hoping that one of those will be Big Fella Thanks.

If it weren’t for his age, I would be very keen on him today.
His record over the Aintree fences is excellent; his is in very good form – and he as crack amateur Derek O’Connor on board.

On the flip side, he is now 13 years old – so past his prime. However, it is only 2 months since he ran a massive race to finish runner up in a class 1 handicap on Cheltenham trials day, so he is clearly still capable of performing to a high level.

The other one I want on board is a little more speculative…

Quinz was formerly a high class chaser (rated 153 in his prime) – but his career has been beset by injury.

On the back of an impressive in the Racing Post chase, he was well fancied for the 2011 Grand National. However he burst a blood vessel that day and was pulled up.

Keeping him sound is the issue – but if he gets to the track in top form he still has a big performance in him.

His only run under rules this season was in a hunter chase at Doncaster, when he finished runner up to the top class Paint the Clouds.

He was receiving weight that day and beaten 10 lengths – but it was still a decent performance against the horse who went on to finish third in the foxhunters at Cheltenham.

Collateral form lines say that Quinz has got it all to do against On the Fringe – so I guess that’s why he’s a 50/1 shot !

However, NH racing is rarely that simple and I suspect that Quinz still retains enough ability to run a huge race this afternoon.
Whether he is good enough to win, is a different matter – but in a race which his no where near as strong as the number suggest – and in which there are question marks against a few of the market leaders, I think he is worth a small risk at a huge price.

0.25pt win Big Fella Thanks 8/1

0.125pt EW Quinz 50/1

4:40

At this meeting 12 months ago, the one horse I wanted to tip was Arnaud, in this very race…

I latched on to him following his previous run at Doncaster, where he finished second in a very decent novice chase, leading everywhere apart from the final 50 yards.

I’m pretty sure that Arnaud wants good ground and a quick, flat track.

He just about got those conditions 12 months ago, but got into a pace duel up front and that did for his challenge.

He’s not had his conditions since that day (certainly, not this season, when he has raced exclusively on heavy ground) so I’m hoping that a return to spring ground will see an upturn in his performance.

In fairness, he has not run too badly in a few of his races this campaign - most notably his most recent outing. And he also seems to have learnt to settle better in his races, which is likely to help him get home today.

Last time out he ran a very creditable second to the rejuvenated Rubi Light.
That was over 2m2f at the stiff Thurles track, on very deep ground.

Arnaud cantered round that day and looked sure to win approaching the last, but just didn’t quite get home.

I think that was just because it was too much of a test of stamina for him – but it did at least show that he’s right back to his best, form wise.

In fairness, this look quite a hot race – and also one where there is likely to be an abundance of pace from the off.

Cheltenham winner Next Sensation will take some heading early – and I don’t think he’s too badly handicapped off  a mark just 8lb higher.

He will be a tough opponent to beat, assuming he has recovered from his Cheltenham exertions.

So too will Ned Buntline. He finished fourth behind Next Sensation, when he was APs last ever Cheltenham mount…

Others worthy of a mention are Karinga Dancer and last years winner, Parsnip Pete.

I can see them all going well.

However, I am hopeful that Arnaud will be able to track Next Sensation, keeping out of most of the trouble - and them strike for home between the last two.

Hopefully this time, he will keep sufficient in reserve to come home in front.

0.25pt EW Arnaud 16/1

5:15

This looks a pretty trappy contest, and whilst I felt I could eliminate a few of the field, there were still too many left with chances, for me to be able to tackle it with confidence.

The one I was most interested in, was Tagliatelle.

I tipped him at Cheltenham and he was a little unlucky to only finish fourth in the Coral Cup, after having been given a lot to do. It’s anyones guess how he will cope with the extra half mile today – but if he handles it, them I could easily see him being involved at the finish.

The other 2 of particular interest at decent prices, are Ulzanas Raid and Katgary.

The former was in good form in the early part of the season and may well have derived benefit from a mid season break.
The latter is one I have already tipped twice this season – and he won comfortably last time out at Newbury.

He has been raised 6lb for that win – but that doesn’t look overly punitive.

He can currently be backed at 20/1 with Coral, which strikes me as very fair (he’s a general 16/1 shot).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Early

Aintree 1:40 Val de Law 0.25pt win 22/1

Aintree 2:50 Menorah 0.5pt win 8/1

Aintree 4:05 Big Fella Thanks 0.25pt win 8/1

Aintree 4:05 Quinz 0.125pt win 50/1

Aintree 4:40 Arnaud 0.25pt EW 16/1

Late

None

Mentions

Aintree 2:15 Intense Tango (O )

Aintree 3:25 Jezki (P )

Aintree 5:15 Tagliatelle (C )

Top Picks

None

Monthly report - March

Starting with the headline figures:

TVB tips

Total staked: 9pts

Total profit: 1.5pts

ROI 17%

*The total figure, is based on getting the best generally available price at the time I issue the tip (with the stated bookmakers – including BOG, if offered).

These are the number for March – excluding Cheltenham (that will be covered later in the report !).

And whilst, even without Cheltenham, it couldn’t be described as a great month – I think it could fairly be described as a solid month.

More than that, I think it was the one month this season where luck really didn’t smile on us, so coming out of it with any kind of profit was actually a good achievement…

The 9pts staked during March were spread across 23 horses competing in 23 races.

These number are very light – but are explained, in the main, by the presence of the Cheltenham festival.

Not only did it take out the best part of a week – it also resulted in much less competitive racing for the rest of the month and consequently, less betting opportunities.

Of the 23 tips, in terms of placing, they achieved the following:

1^st – 3

2^nd – 8

3^rd – 0

4^th - 1

This illustrates the first of the reasons why I think we were unlucky during the month.
I target 25% of the tips finishing first or second - and managed to achieve just under 50% !

You would expect that if you were tipping 3/1 shots – but as you know, I tip very few of those !!

We were unlucky that only 3 of the 11 horses to finish in the first two, actually won.

A further 5 traded odds on in running, which shows just how close we were to another bumper month.

The second reason why I think we were unlucky during the month, is illustrated by the ratio of advised prices to BSP…

If you have just backed all of the tips at the advised price and layed them off on BF at BSP, you would have made 3.19pts profit (35% ROI).

This suggests that the tips during the month, really were high quality…

Despite this, the tips couldn’t make a profit to a level stake at BSP, this month – but that is simply due to the fact that insufficient managed to win !

The loss on the month was 8.22pts to a level stake – and 1.61pts to advised stakes.

Ofcourse, non of the above takes into consideration the debacle that was Cheltenham..!

I did say last month that I was a little more apprehensive than normal about the meeting – and boy did my fears prove to be well founded !!

I tipped 31 horses at the meeting – and managed to find just one short priced winner. As a result, I recorded a near 7pt loss - woeful !

I can’t even blame poor luck – simply the tips were not good enough…

I’m sure that you are all wondering why that was – and I think there was one main reason.

I just didn’t have sufficient time to do everything that I took on.

I spent 4 hours a day watching the racing – plus 3 hours a day producing the write-ups/reviews.

That meant that I had put in 7 hours each day, before I tried to find any tips…

In previous seasons, the tips had just dropped out.

Obviously I am very familiar with most of the runners that run at the festival and therefore little form study is actually required.

They didn’t drop out this season however – and there were three main reason for that:
Firstly I didn’t have a strong view on any of the Championship races; secondly the domination of Willie Mullins, meant that I had to get ‘creative’ in the races where he had short priced favourites; and thirdly, so many of the horses in the handicaps had an ‘unquantifiable’ aspect to them (new head gear, breathing operation, different trip, long absence) - I lost sight of the important factors and just didn’t have the space/time to ‘reasonable check’ my choices…

Ofcourse, non of these are acceptable reasons for issuing poor tips – I shouldn’t have tipped at the meeting (or at least, I should have tipped far fewer horses).

However, I wanted to issue tips for most of the races, as it is the high light of the season – and even though I felt like I backed off a bit with the tipping, I should have backed off a lot more….

If I’m going to preview all the races in future years, I won’t be issuing anywhere near as many tips…

Anyway, these things happen – there is no point dwelling on it – apart from to learn a lesson…

So that’s it for the final month of the season.

It wasn’t the best month of the season – but it did have very stiff competition – and Cheltenham aside, I would maintain that it was actually very good (despite what the numbers might suggest !)

I’ll now get to work on the end of season report.

It will take me a few days to compile – but I’m sure it will be worth the effort (I think last seasons helped enormously in making this season such a success).

I’m not sure when I’ll be able to issue it – but it will definitely be before next Wednesday evening, when the Aintree encore begins !!

TVB

Review of the day

I guess non of you would have been to be too surprised by the way things panned out this afternoon…

On a day that seemed to typify the month – and the last week in particular – I managed to take a short list of 3 horses and tip 2 seconds, whilst electing not to put up a winner.

It’s almost as if a greater power is trying to make the point that content of the write-ups is more valuable than the actual tips !

I don’t want to pre-empt the monthly report, but I honestly think that my reading of the races in March, has been stronger than at any other point in the season – however a combination of poor luck and poor judgement has prevented it from being a month to remember.

To illustrate the point, when Ballybough Pat came home second this afternoon, he became the 8^th tip this month to occupy that position (from 22 tips).
When you consider that I have also tipped 3 winners during the month, that really does represent phenomenally consistent tipping…

Anyway, there will be more on that in a couple of days – this review is just about how todays tip/mentions ran.

The first tip into action was No Buts.

He was very well backed, going off 7/2 second favourite – and when the favourite, Horizontal Speed, fell at the second fence, the race looked to be his for the taking.

However, his jumping lacked its normal fluency.

He too made a mistake at the second – and numerous more as the race progressed.

It says much for his ability that he managed to stay within striking distance of Seventh Sky for as long as he did – but ultimately the errors took their toll and he could only come home a well beaten second.

Just ten minutes later, Ballybough Pat managed to fill exactly the same position at Chepstow – but he went far closer to victory.

Turning into the home straight he had most of the field beaten – but he just couldn’t shake off Candide.

Ballybough Pat still seemed the most likely winner, as Candides jumping was nowhere near as slick.

However, when he ranged up along side Ballybough Pat approaching the final fence I feared the worst – and sure enough Candide took full advantage of the 15lb he was receiving from the runner up, and managed to hold him at bay, up the run in.

It was another tough one to take – and we’ve had a few of those this month…

With regard to the mentions, then the main one of the day, was Rhapando…

I put him up last week in a weaker race than todays, and I think we can now feel a little hard done by.

He was withdrawn from that contest and was only available at half the price for todays race.
I knew that wouldn’t stop him winning - but it did make him marginal value.

Needless to say, he laughed in the face of value and came home a comfortable winner…

He was the only winning mention on the day: Verano never really featured in the opener at Warwick; whilst Smart Story was pulled up after racing prominently in the handicap chase at the same venue.

Thecorrupter made little show at Kempton – but did better than Right Story, who jinked and unshipped his rider as the tape went up (having been hammered in the betting to 11/2 from 16/1 earlier).

Finally, good old Luddsdenene ran exactly the race I expected at Chepstow.

He was 12 on BF at the off, having been 20 earlier on – but managed to touch 3 in running up the home straight, before folding into a ball.

If the horse could breath properly, he would be a champion – but he can’t and when he comes under pressure he stops.
Good job all the layers haven’t picked up on that fact just yet 

Tomorrow is the last day of the season (excluding Aintree) and having had a quick look at the declarations, I suspect it will be a quiet day.

That said, I’ll spend this evening, in the same way that I have spent most evening over the past 5 months, trying to find a winner.

I’ll advise on whether I manage to find anything suitable, at the normal time tomorrow morning.

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 30th

There are 3 meeting this afternoon, at Warwick, Kempton and Chepstow.

The penultimate day of the TVB season…

And there is some pretty good racing – certainly for a Monday.

Finding a tip or two, was relatively easy to do – though I won’t bore you with the difficulties surrounding actually issuing them !

Suffice to say that the price of No Buts crashed – though as I said this morning, it was already tumbling – and I’m aware that it was tipped by another tipster shortly after I’d sent it out…

The price of Ballybough Pat dropped a couple of points as well – but I think that is to be expected.

I will always believe there is at least a 20% margin in the price of any tips I issue – so you should use that as your guide when deciding whether a price is acceptable…

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Warwick

3:25

The market for this race is made by Horizontal Speed, who was fourth in the novice handicap chase on day 1 of the Cheltenham festival.

He ran really well that day and his final placing doesn’t flatter him – however, I suspect he had an exceptionally hard race and as we saw yesterday with Zareb, there is every chance that a hard race at the festival will leave its mark…

No Buts also ran at the festival – but he never really featured in the 2m4f handicap chase run on day 3.

That was a very rough race – and No Buts was given quite a hard ride from the third last – but couldn’t make sufficient ground on the leaders to mount a challenge.

I am slightly concerned that the race may have left a mark – however, he was only under pressure for half about half a mile, so hopefully he will have got away with it.

If he has, then I think he has a very good chance of going close today.

He is well handicapped off mark of 137 – just 7lb higher than when running away with a decent race at Newbury earlier in the season.

There have been excuses for his 2 below par runs since then (the second of which was the festival run) – and so I’m hoping everything will click into place this afternoon.

One factor which I am hoping will be key, is the return of Tom Scudamore in the saddle – he has been missing on his last two runs but has been on board when the horse has run its best races (two wins and two seconds).

The horse has run well round Warwick twice before, so there should be no issue with the track. He will also have ground conditions to suit, so I am optimistic of a very big show.

Aside from the favourite, then it is some of the longer priced horses that I would be most fearful of…

Drumshambo is now a very well handicapped horse – and the application of first blinkers and a return to 2m4f could see him running a very big race.

If Venetia was in better form I would certainly be very concerned about him – regardless, I can see him running a big race.

The other two of interest are Ciceron and Benefit Cut. Both have a lot of question marks over them - but I both also have the ability to run big races this afternoon…

0.5pt win No Buts 7/1

Our old friend Merano runs in the opening event on the card – and I can see him running a big race.

We were on him last time out when he won at Uttoxeter and off a mark just 6lb higher there is no reason why he won’t run another big race this afternoon.

That said, I think this is a deeper race than the one he contested last time. I managed to resist the 11/2 early – so the 3/1 on offer now holds very limited appeal…

In the 2:55 race, Smart Story catches my eye…

He has absolutely no form to recommend him, so he could never be a bet. However, this is a very poor race and I think it is interesting that he gets to run for the first time over fences under rules, in a handicap.

He finished second on his only run in a PTP – and if he has even a modicum of ability, todays race is there for the taking…

Chepstow

3:35

Ballybough Pat is a horse that you should all be familiar with by now, as I’ve already tipped him twice this season.

The first occasion was when he made his seasonal debut over hurdle in the Lanzarote at Kempton - and then when he made his chasing debut in a small race at Leicester.

He didn’t win on either of those occasions – but he ran with credit both times.

As a consequence, he was well backed on his third outing of the season, in a decent handicap chase at Sandown.
However he disappointed that day and was eventually pulled up after making a number of mistakes.

He was also pulled up on his most recent outing – but he ran with much more credit that day.

That was at Taunton, over an extreme trip of 3m5f and after travelling well for most of the race, Ballybough Pat just didn’t get home…

He is dropped back to 3 miles today – and the handicapper has dropped him 6lb.

As a consequence, he is able to sneak into todays 0-120 race with top weight.

I am hoping that the drop in class will enable him to get back on the winning track…

In fairness, it does look quite an open race and I could give a chance to most of the runners.

The other one that catches my eye is the Venetia trained Spirit D’Amor – but it seems quite significant that Aidan Coleman rides Ballybough Pat in preference to him.

At the end of the day, this comes down to prices and perceived value – and at 12/1 I think it worth taking a small risk that Ballybough Pat can bounce back to form.

0.25pt win Ballybough Pat 12/1

The other horse of interest running at Chepstow this afternoon, is Luddsdenene…
He has his second outing for Alex Dunne in the finale – and his first for her over fences…

He is not well handicapped – and he is better over hurdles than over fences.
Against that, he is quite a big price – and will doubtless travel through the race.

If you are that way inclined, you could probably back him  pre-race and lay off for a profit in-running.

Though I some how doubt that a win only bet on him will collect…

Kempton

The third horse that I considered tipping this morning was Rhapando, who runs in the handicap chase at 4:20…

I tipped him at Southwell last week, but he was withdrawn from the race mid morning.

We got 13/2 about him that day in a race that looked weaker than todays.

He opened up last night at 6/1 – but you would have struggled to get 4/1 this morning  (he is 7/2 now).

I think he is quite capable of wining a race like todays, but he comes with risks - not least of which is the form of his stable.

At a price, I would have risked him – but he just doesn’t feel like a strong 7/2 shot to me…

His stale companion, Thecorrupter, is of some interest in the preceding race on the card.

He has even more question marks hanging over him than Rhapando – but at least you can get a price on him.

In fairness, that is due in part to him taking on some potentially decent opposition.

All the same, he might be worth a small EW interest at he 14/1 generally on offer…

Finally, I think that Right Step looks over priced in the handicap hurdle at 4:55.

He won well on his penultimate outing before apparently finding the ground too quick last time out.
He has run well over todays course and distance previously and isn’t too badly handicapped.

He does face some potentially decent rivals - but his price of 16/1 again offers EW possibilities…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Warwick 3:25 No Buts 0.5pt win 7/1

Chepstow 3:35 Ballybough Pat 0.25pt win 12/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Warwick 2:20 Merano (O )

Warwick 2:55 Smart Story (S )

Chepstow 5:15 Luddsdenene (C )

Kempton 3:50 Thecorrupter (O )

Kempton 4:20 Rhapando (P )

Kempton 4:55 Right Step (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None

 

Daily write-up - Mar 29th

There are a couple of NH meetings this afternoon at Ascot and Limerick…

The Ascot card is very good indeed – however, the possibility of significant rain means that the going would have to be guessed and that just seems like a pointless risk to take…

Before I get on to my thoughts on the afternoon, just a few quick words of thanks to all of you who contacted me yesterday…

I was wrong in my statement that only 1 of you backed Mr Burbidge on Friday – it would appear that around 10 of you covered your bet on Le Fin Bois with him (one of you was even smart enough to do the forecast ).

Furthermore, I was also pleased to receive such a resounding vote of confidence for the write-ups in general…

I fully understand that you are all busy guys – and I don’t expect you all to read and act on every word, every day.

However, I would like to think that most of you do read/skim read the write-ups whenever you can – and your betting activity is duly influenced by them.

I know this isn’t the case for everyone – but my feeling is that it is the case for more than half of you – and I’m happy enough working with an audience of that size.

Ultimately, it is an individuals choice as to whether they take advantage of everything the service offers.

If people just want to follow the tips, then it is their choice/loss.

Provided the appetite to receive them exists amongst the majority, I will continue to produce them – and hopefully you will continue to profit from them…

On to today then…

Without the rain, I would have been very keen on Creevytennant in the handicap chase at 4:10.

He last ran in leg 2 of the veterans series at Exeter and the form of that race has worked out exceptionally well.

He will be relatively fresh today – and should get an uncontested lead.

On good ground I would be very keen on him.

However, he barely stays 3 miles – and he doesn’t like soft ground.

If you combine the two, I can see a scenario where he weakens up the home straight…

If the ground does get very soft, then Relax would have a very good chance; whilst without the rain, I would have been most fearful of Wayward Prince (assuming he can go close to repeating his last time out Doncaster form).

In the novice chase at 2:30, rain would likely swing the balance in favour of Puffin Billy ahead of Thomas Crapper.

The latter prefers a decent surface, whilst the former want it soft.

The race does look likely to go to one of the two of them…

The juvenile hurdle at 3:05 is very tricky to unravel.

If you could take the form at face value, then I think Zarib would be the one to beat.

He ran really well in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival – but there is a chance that the run took a lot out of him.

He is closely matched with Unanimite on that form – and that one has first time blinkers applied today, which could make a difference.

The other one I think is of interest, is Sternrubin.
He is clearly quite quirky – but I suspect he has a lot of talent and will benefit from competing in a strong race.

I think there is a chance that he might get overlooked in the betting – and he could be worth an interest if getting to a price of 8/1 or bigger.

The other one that caught my eye was Prairie Town.

I really wanted to be able to make a case for him at a price, but I couldn’t quite do it.

That said, I would still be wary of him…

Turn Over Sivola should really be the one in the novice handicap chase at 3:40 – but he’s another one who would prefer quick ground.

The same is true of Un Ace – which is a shame as those two looked the best handicapped horses in the race.

I’m a big fan of both Top Gamble and Royal Regatta – and I like the fact that both of them missed Cheltenham.

However, they have both shot up the handicap this season – and you do wonder how much more improvement they have got in them.

Finally, I could have been tempted to take a chance on What a Warrior over hurdles in the 4:45 race – but again, he prefers quick ground.

If the rain stays away, then he would be worth a small interest on a track that he likes and with a very capable claimer in the saddle…

There’s not much equine talent to get excited about at Limerick – but the presence of Joseph O’Brien riding his fathers Egyptian Warrior in the novice hurdle at 3:30, could be very significant.
Young Joseph has always struggled with his weight and maybe this is the first of many rides over jumps for him.

Who knows, in time he might turn out to be the next AP !! (though I kind of doubt it !)

Good luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.