There are 4 NH meetings today: Kempton, Uttoxeter and
Newcastle in the UK – plus Limerick in Ireland.
There’s not too much to recommend the cards at either
Newcastle or Limerick – but those staged at Kempton and Uttoxeter are little
crackers !
I
remember in bygone years, I used to dread the weekend after Cheltenham, but
credit to both courses, who have clearly adapted and stage a number of
fascinating races.
As
you may have gathered, I had no issue finding tips (I could probably have found
a few more !) – though I am a little wary about the ground
conditions.
At
Uttoxeter, they look set to race on heavy ground (4.1 on the going stick);
whereas at Kempton, the ground is good (7.5 on the going stick).
As a
result, I’m looking for completely different types of horses at the 2 meetings –
but compared to unravelling the Cheltenham plots, it still seems like a breeze
!
Here
are my thoughts on the day:
Kempton
2:20
There are a few potentially interesting ones in
this…
Tony
Martin sends over Mydor – and he looks feasibly handicapped on a mark of 130,
following a good run last time; whilst La Vaticane makes his UK debut for David
Pipe – and could literally be anything.
If
either of those win, we’ll just have to shrug our shoulders – the market has
found them, so there is no value for us to second guess over.
Of
the others, then Communicator and Theinval are also both of potential interest –
but again, priced short enough for horse with question marks over
them.
Of
much more interest at a price, is the Paul Nichols trained Katgary.
This
time last year, he finished an unlucky second in the Fred Winter at the
Cheltenham festival – and looked sure to go on to greater things.
In
fact, he was made a very shorted priced favourite for his next outing at
Aintree, but was a disappointment.
He’s
not really done much this season either – but he’s only run 3 times, and there
are feasible excuses for each of his performances.
He
maybe needed the run first time out; he maybe found the ground too soft in the
Greatwood hurdle; and he maybe didn’t take to fences when tried over them at
Christmas…
Obviously you have to be careful not to give a horse to
many chances – but I think they are all potentially valid reasons why the real
Katgary hasn’t shown up so far this season.
Today, I see no reason why he won’t perform to his
best.
He’s
back over hurdles and on quick ground that we know he likes. He is stepping up
in trip – but he always looked as if that would suit.
Furthermore, he is now running off a mark just 2lb higher
than he ran off in last seasons Fred Winter – and he has got crack apprentice
Sean Bowen on board, claiming 5lbs.
In
short, he has a lot of things in his favour – and an early price of 14/1 looks
very generous indeed.
0.25pt win Katgary 14/1
3:30
The
market for this race is made by Canuspotit – but he just has to be taken
on.,,
Don’t get me wrong, I was as impressed as anyone by his
last time out win: but he’s the best part of a stone higher in the handicap:
taking on opposition 2 classes higher: and on completely different ground. A 9/2
shot – I don’t think so…
I
would also have issues with Allez Vic
He
was a facile winner over hurdles last time out: and ran a very good race over
fences at Chepstow 3 outings ago. However, sandwiched between those runs, he put
in a shocker at Taunton. His confidence jumping fences seemed shot that day –
and it would be difficult to support him over the bigger obstacles until you
knew that had been restored.
Two
of much greater interest are Lamool and Buck Magic.
Both
have been off the course for a while – but that could well be because they’ve
been waiting for the better ground.
Lamool was very impressive when winning on good ground at
Aintree the autumn. He went up 12lb for that win – but I still think he could be
competitive off his new mark.
He
was tempting.
However, I opted for Buck Magic instead.
However, I opted for Buck Magic instead.
He
was a winning TVB tip a couple of seasons back, when he took a hurdle race at
the Cheltenham November meeting.
He
reached a mark of 134 over hurdles that season – but then had a season off
(presumable with an injury).
He
returned over fences this autumn and ran a couple of decent races to finish
second – before disappointing on his two most recent outings (the latter one,
over hurdles).
He’s
been given a break since Christmas – and hopefully that will have freshened him
up.
I
suspect he will appreciate the better ground – and he has already performed with
credit around the Kempton track.
However the real eye catcher here, is the booking of
Barry Gerraghty for a Neil Mullholland horse. The pair are 5 from 18 – including
taking a big handicap at Cheltenham this week.
On a
horse now rated 10lb below the level he reached over hurdles, if Barry can work
his magic, I would be very optimistic that Buck Magic will be up to the
task.
0.5pt win Buck Magic 10/1
In
the opener on the card, I suspect that Art Mauresque is the one to
beat…
Admittedly there is quite a lot of guess work – and
consequently it would be difficult to get involved at 9/4 – but I have a feeling
he could be different class to his rivals…
Certainly Paul Nichols has not campaigned him like a 135
rated horse.
His
UK debut was in a grade 2 event at Cheltenham – and his most recent run, in a
grade 1 event at Auteuil.
He
didn’t feature in either contest – but the stable opinion of him seems quite
clear…
Sandwiched in between those two runs, he put in a good
performance at Ascot – so his case is not all based on reputation.
If
the first time hood gets him back on track today, I suspect he will hack
up.
Uttoxeter
2:05
This
doesn’t look like the strongest event ever run – and I think it is worth taking
a chance on Verano…
Certainly, when compared to the races he has run in so
far this season, Verano should find this a whole lot easier.
He
opened his campaign by running in class 1 handicap hurdle at Ascot in
November.
He
cut little ice that day – and it was as similar story on his next outing in a
novice handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham November meeting.
However the difference in class between those two races
and the one he competes in today, is huge.
In
fact he is only able to run in today race because his handicap mark has dropped
significantly.
He
started the season on a mark of 127 – and today gets to run off a mark of
113.
His
most recent run was at Newbury a fortnight ago.
That was on the back of a long break and in the circumstances, I thought he performed quite creditably against some very decent animals.
That was on the back of a long break and in the circumstances, I thought he performed quite creditably against some very decent animals.
He
was still in with half a chance approaching the third last – but backed out of
things as the race hotted up.
However, he stayed on late and was only beaten 16 lengths
at the line.
I suspect he will have derived significant benefit from that run – and if that is the case, then I can see him going very close today.
I suspect he will have derived significant benefit from that run – and if that is the case, then I can see him going very close today.
I
have some slight concerns about his ability to handle very heavy ground – even
though he’s won on the soft.
However, I think they are factored into a price of 9/1
against opposition which looks quite moderate.
0.5pt win Verano 9/1
2:40
This
is a really strong race – and I was hoping I would be able to tip Algernon
Pazham in it. However, his price of 9/2 leaves no margin for error, so I’ve had
to pass on him.
In
truth, I could have ducked the race completely, as there are 3 or 4 that I could
make a case for – but I’ve decided to take a small risk on Top Wood….
He
is undeniably well treated on his hurdles form, as he won a stronger race than
todays over hurdles at Haydock last seasons, off a mark of 130.
As a
result of that, his hurdles mark was raised to 140 – but he gets to run today
off a mark of 128…
His
Haydock win also showed that he is fully effective on heavy ground – so that
shouldn’t be an issue for him either.
The
concern prior to his last run, was his ability to jump a fence – but whilst he
was ultimately well beaten at Exeter, I felt his jumping was sufficiently
proficient for that not to be a worry.
I
like the fact that Conor O Farrell is back in the saddle today (he rode him at
Haydock) – and I like the application of first time blinkers.
I
could see him being given a very prominent ride (Straidnahanna likes to make the
running as well) – and if he does get into a rhythm, then in perfect conditions,
I think he could run a very big race.
0.25pt win Top Wood 11/1
3:50
Catching On is going to take the world of beating in
this, with just a 6lb penalty for his recent win at Exeter – but all the same,
I’m not sure he warrants being a 5/2 shot in such a competitive race…
True, he was mightily impressive at Exeter – but that was
a much weaker race than todays – and it was only 11 days ago.
If
he hacks up again, then fair enough, but I think he is worth taking on, at the
price…
Woodford County and Foxbridge, were two I considered
taking him on with.
I’ve
tipped both already this season – and have a good feel for their
strengths/weaknesses.
I
suspect that the former will run his race – and has strong EW appeal – however I
also suspect he won’t be quite good enough to win.
The
latter might be good enough to win – if his stamina holds out. But whether that
will happen, is anyones guess…
Regardless, I feel a stronger case can be made for the
Veteran Carruthers.
He
will have no issue with todays trip or ground – but most importantly, is
handicapped to give Catching On a race, even if that one is as well handicapped
as seems likely.
Simply Carruther is spectacularly well handicapped.
Just
over 12 months ago, he ran second to Shotgun Paddy in the Classic chase at
Warwick.
That
run was off a mark of 150 – he met Shotgun Paddy at level weights that day.
Today he runs off a mark of 133 – and receives a stone from his old
rival.
The
reduction in his mark has come about because the handicapper has taken a view
that he is in rapid decline – but his performances on the racecourse don’t
really back that up.
He’s
another one who has had good reasons for some seemingly under par runs – and if
everything falls right today, I am sure he is still capable of running a massive
race.
0.25pt win Carruthers 16/1
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Early
Kempton 2:20 Katgary 0.25pt win 14/1
Kempton 3:30 Buck Magic 0.5pt win 10/1
Uttoxeter 2:05 Verano 0.5pt win 9/1
Uttoxeter 2:50 Top Wood 0.25pt win 11/1
Uttoxeter 3:50 Carruthers 0.25pt win 16/1
Late
None
Mentions
Kempton 1:45 Art Mauresque (S )
Top Picks
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