The
final day of what has been a taxing Cheltenham festival.
Win,
lose or draw, I need to think about how I handle Cheltenham next
season.
My feeling is that I just try to do too much; with the extensive write-ups and tips in most of the races.
The
is always a danger that things will get compromised because they just don’t fit
– and I think that is maybe what has happened this time round.
I’ll
mull it over in the closed season – I’ve still got today to try and recover
things !
However, that’s not going to be easy, with the normal
ultra competitive races - and the impact of the rain to consider.
Maybe not too surprisingly in the circumstances, I’ve
backed off things a little bit today.
I
always felt like yesterday was going to be the big day – but it ended
disappointingly.
Today looks tough – and I see no need to go and chase
things.
I’ve
got a few tips on the day – plus my usual thoughts on all of the
races.
It
would be nice to at least finish the festival on a high.
Fingers crossed !
1:30
I’ve
felt for a while that the Triumph hurdle is Peace and Cos to lose…
He
has been hugely impressive in his two UK races to date – and his form has some
substance as well.
On
his UK debut, he simply toyed with Starchitect and that one subsequently ran
much closer to Hargem, before finishing a decent fourth in Tuesdays Fred
Winter.
Peace and Co then gave weight and a comfortable beating to a good yard stick in the shape of Karezak.
Peace and Co then gave weight and a comfortable beating to a good yard stick in the shape of Karezak.
I
also like the fact that 2 of his main rivals are from the same stable – yet
Nicky Henderson seems quite clear about who is his number 1.
At
3/1, I think he is worth tipping – and hopefully most of you will get that
price, or very close to it (William Hills actually went 4/1 for a little while
at 8:30 this morning).
Of
his opponents then Beltor and Petite Parisienne are potentially the 2 of most
interest.
However, I suspect that the former will be better suited
to a flat track (like Aintree); whilst I’m not sure the latter is quite good
enough (even with the mares allowance).
In
summary, Peace and Co looks an exceptional juvenile to me and I am very hopeful
that he will take this race.
0.5pt win Peace and Co 3/1
2:05
This
is another race where I was going to pull the trigger on a relatively short
priced runner, but the overnight rain has dissuaded me from doing so.
Despite the 25 runners, I will be a little surprise if
the winner comes from outside the top half dozen in the betting.
In fact, I suspect the race will go to either Quick Jack or The Game Changer.
In fact, I suspect the race will go to either Quick Jack or The Game Changer.
Both
look to have been layed out for the race – and I suspect that both have also got
the requisite 10lb or so, in hand of their current marks.
At
10/1 I felt it was worth taking a chance on The Game Changer, but that was
before the rain came.
He looks to have a definite preference for decent ground, so his appeal is lessened significantly now that the ground has gone soft.
He looks to have a definite preference for decent ground, so his appeal is lessened significantly now that the ground has gone soft.
I
guess that should improve the case for Quick Jack – and it does to an
extent.
However 7/1 is plenty short enough in a race where luck
in running could well play a big part.
All
things being equal, I will be surprised if he’s not there, or thereabouts –
however, as we saw yesterday, you need a few points on the price to compensate
for the ’lottery’ component of these big handicaps – and at 7/1, there really
isn’t much slack.
2:40
Another race where it would have been easy enough to side
with one of the market leaders.
Black Hercules represents the all conquering
Mullins/Walsh combination and has long been viewed the ideal type for this
race.
It
therefore says much for the regard in which No More Heroes is held, that he is
disputing favouritism with the Mullins runner – particularly as he was a big
disappointment on his most recent run.
Apparently there were good reasons for that, and both his
form prior to that run and his continued strength in the market, lead me to
believe that he is the one to beat.
And
he might prove difficult to beat – but I think it is worth taking him on with a
couple of big priced runners…
The
first of those is Tea for Two, who was as easy a winner of a grade 1 handicap as
you will see all season, when he won the Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton in
January.
He
won that day, by 16 lengths, easing up – and whilst he did it off a mark of just
134 it was still a mighty impressive performance by a novice against seasoned
handicappers.
An
odds on defeat next time out tempers enthusiasm a little – but that was in a 3
horse race and it is interesting to note that he was also beaten in a 4 horse
race earlier in the season, whilst his form in big fields is
exemplary.
The
suggestion is that maybe he struggles to settle if there is no pace in a race –
and the fitting of a first time hood today, backs up that theory.
He’s
unproven at todays trip – and jockey Lizzie Kelly won’t be able to make use of
her claim – but I still think he is worth a risk at a big price.
Similar comments apply to Shantou Bob, who can actually
be backed at an even bigger price – 40/1 !
That
price is just wrong, as on form he has a very similar chance to the likes of
Fletchers Flyer and Defintly Red, and they are both half that price.
I
guess that part of the reason why Shantou Bob is such a big price, is because he
was disappointing last time out.
However a subsequent breathing operation suggests that
connections know what was causing the problem.
Certainly if he can bounce back to his previous form,
when a close second to Vyta Du Roc at Sandown, he could well be good enough to
be involved at the finish.
0.125pt EW Tea for Two 33/1
0.125pt EW Shantou Bob 40/1
3:20
The
2015 Gold Cup looks a truly enthralling contest – but I’ve little idea about
what is going to win it !
So
much is going to depend on the actual state of the ground – plus how the race
unfolds, it makes choosing a winner nearly impossible…
That
said, I was half tempted to risk Silviniaco Conti.
On
form, he is the best horse in the race by miles – and he is at the peak of his
powers.
If
he had not wobbled on the run in last season, than people would be falling over
themselves to take half of the current 9/2 that is on offer – but he
did…
Trainer Paul Nichols is adamant that he is a different
horse this season – but it is difficult to believe it until you see it with your
own eyes.
If
he comes home first, I suspect we will all be wondering how we missed such an
obvious winner !
Him
aside, it is possible to make half a case for just about every other runner in
the field – which is the problem !
The
likes of Djakadam, Many Clouds and Road to Riches could easily improve
sufficiently to take the prize; whilst if the ground comes up really soft, I
wouldn’t be backing against Carlingford Loch giving the champ an unbelievable
Cheltenham send off.
Personally, I struggle to see either of the ex winners
repeating today.
I
don’t particularly rate Lord Windermere – and now the ground has gone against
him, I struggle to see him recapturing his crown.
Bobsworth could be a little more interesting, but he has appeared woefully short of pace the last few times we have seen him. They don’t go on forever – and he’s had a tough career.
Bobsworth could be a little more interesting, but he has appeared woefully short of pace the last few times we have seen him. They don’t go on forever – and he’s had a tough career.
The
one that interests me most, is the novice Coneygree.
People go on about novices not winning a Gold Cup, but in
my opinion, that is nonsense.
Firstly, not many try: and secondly, it all depends on
the novice (and the opposition !).
Coneygree jumps like a seasoned handicapper – and his
style of racing means that it is irrelevant what is following him.
The
question is simply, whether he is good enough…
I’m
honestly not sure that he quite is – but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see
him leading into the home straight, with most of the field toiling
behind.
I
suspect that one or two will pick him off close home – but a placing must be a
real possibility.
Of
the remaining few, then I would give both Sam Winner and Houblon Des Obeaux
chances, if the ground came up really soft…
Head
on the block, I would go for Carlingford Loch and AP to get a famous final Gold
cup win.
4:00
Salsify is already a dual winner of this race: first in
2012 when he beat Chapoturgeon; and then a year later, when he took advantage
Oscar Delta unshipping his rider, on the run in.
He
was absent last year, when the race was won by Tammys Hill – a horse who always
tended to come up a little bit short, when faced with a peak form
Salsify.
In
short, Salsify and Tammys Hill have dominated this race for the past 3 seasons –
and provided he is back to his best, then I think Salsify has a good chance of
reclaiming his crown this time around.
Whether he will be back to his best, is I guess, a cause
of some concern…
He
had been off the course for over 12 months prior to running in a hunter chase at
Leopardstown last month.
That
was a very hot event and the eventual winner, Prince De Beauchene would likely
be a short priced favourite if he was able to run in todays race (he isn’t
qualified to do so).
Salsify travelled with his usual menace through that race
and briefly looked like he might make a successful return, when he took up the
running down the back straight.
However, lack of peak fitness eventually caught him out
and he was passed by the eventual winner – and runner-up, On the Fringe - on the
run to the last.
He
was eased after the last and ultimately finished fourth – but I saw enough to
think that he is still capable of performing to a very high level.
If
that is the case, then I would expect Salsify to be able to take care of On The
Fringe – as like Tammys Hill, he is a horse than has struggled to contain a peak
form Salsify in the past.
The
main danger could therefore be Paint the Clouds. He is relatively unexposed as a
Hunter Chaser – and has plenty of class.
However, he has not yet met a rival as good as Salsify,
so today will really test his mettle.
Others worthy of mention include Current Event,
Carsontown Boy and Muirhead.
All three are very capable - particularly the latter who was classy enough to finish fifth in a Champion hurdle, a few years back and couldn’t have better connections in the shape of Stewart Crawford and Derek O Connor.
All three are very capable - particularly the latter who was classy enough to finish fifth in a Champion hurdle, a few years back and couldn’t have better connections in the shape of Stewart Crawford and Derek O Connor.
0.5pt win Salsify 10/1
4:40
My
intention last week, was to tip On Tour in this. However, both the rain and the
detection of some potentially very well handicapped horses, has put me off
him…
When
I scanned through the race yesterday, my eye was drawn to the Willie Mullins
trained McKinley.
He
won a grade 1 hurdle at Naas in January, before running fifth in the Deloitte
hurdle at Leopardstown the following month.
How
he’s managed to get in today off a mark of just 136, I’ve no idea – and he has
the Professional conditional, Johnny Burke in the saddle.
With
those kind of credentials I expected him to be favourite – but he’s actually
only third choice from the Willie Mullins stable !
Second choice, Killultagh Vic, finished in front of
Wednesdays Neptune winner Windsor Park, the last time he ran – and he gets a
mark of 131 today !
Bizarrely, the form of the apparent stable first string,
Roi de Francs, isn’t as impressive – and he is running off a higher
mark.
I’ll
be a little surprised if one of the 3 doesn’t manage to win the race for Willie
Mullins, the question is, which one...?
Reading trainer comments, Mullins has some concerns about
the jumping of Killultagh Vic – that’s enough to put me off him, in such a big
field.
Similarly, the price of Roi de Francs is enough to put me
off him.
By a
process of elimination, McKinley therefore becomes the pick !
Being the owner/trainer third string didn’t stop him from winning his Grade 1 – so being an owner/stable second string will hopefully not hinder him today !
Being the owner/trainer third string didn’t stop him from winning his Grade 1 – so being an owner/stable second string will hopefully not hinder him today !
Of
the others, then the Paul Nichols trained Le Mercury and the Jonjo O’Neill
trained Forthefunofit - both look very interesting, unexposed, sorts – though
they don’t look as well handicapped as the Irish horses.
0.25pt win McKinley 12/1
5:15
The
final race of the meeting – and the betting public are likely to be all over APs
last ever festival ride, Ned Buntline.
He
was runner up in this race 12 months ago, when given an exaggerated Carberry
waiting ride - and off a mark just 4lb higher today, he obviously has a decent
chance.
However, he has only run twice since last season – with
just one run coming this season (when unplaced over hurdles).
If this has been the plan for 12 months, then he may very well collect - but he has always been a bit of a ‘bridle’ horse – and that would worry me, when he has to face the Cheltenham hill…
If this has been the plan for 12 months, then he may very well collect - but he has always been a bit of a ‘bridle’ horse – and that would worry me, when he has to face the Cheltenham hill…
The
hill won’t worry Ted Veale. He absolutely gobbled it up, when winning the County
hurdle at the festival 2 seasons ago – however the fences might !
He
really hasn’t looked a natural over them – but there can be little doubt that he
remains handicapped to do some damage, if he can get round safely.
Clearly that has to be a worry in a big field like
today’s – but I think that odds of 14/1 provide sufficient compensation for
that.
The
other one I want onside is Grumeti.
Like Ted Veale, he’s so far not proved as good over fences as he was over hurdles – but in his case, it is not his jumping that has let him down.
Like Ted Veale, he’s so far not proved as good over fences as he was over hurdles – but in his case, it is not his jumping that has let him down.
He
has actually jumped pretty well in his 4 chase starts to date – and has been
mixing it in pretty exalted company.
The
drop to handicaps today – plus the application of first time blinkers – looks an
interesting move.
Again, he comes with risks, but a mark of 141 about a
horse rated 153 over hurdles, at his peak, suggests he has plenty of scope to
run a big race, if things work out well for him.
0.25pt win Ted Veale 14/1
0.125pt EW Grumeti 25/1
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
TVB.
Tips
Early
Cheltenham 1:30 Peace and Co 0.5pt win 3/1
Cheltenham 2:40 Tea for Two 0.125pt EW 33/1
Cheltenham 2:40 Shantou Bob 0.125pt EW 40/1
Cheltenham 4:00 Salsify 0.5pt win 10/1
Cheltenham 4:40 McKinley 0.25pt win 12/1
Cheltenham 5:15 Ted Veale 0.25pt win 14/1
Cheltenham 5:15 Grumeti 0.125pt EW 25/1
Late
None
Mentions
Cheltenham 2:05 Quick Jack (P )
Cheltenham 3:20 Carlingford Lough (O )
Top Picks
None
Previous TVB Tips
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3:20 Home Farm
4:40 Peckhamecho
5:15 Bellenos
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