There is NH racing this afternoon, at Sandown and
Exeter…
What’s more, both a pretty decent cards (certainly for a
mid week) – though there aren’t too many betting opportunities…
That
said, I do think I’ve found one – and if things were going a bit better, I would
be quite keen on it.
Still, it doesn’t know that I’m in a poor run of form
Still, it doesn’t know that I’m in a poor run of form
Here’s the logic for the tip – and a few other thoughts
on the day…
Exeter
3:20
I
tipped Adrenalin Flight, last season, when he finished third in a 3 mile chase
at Kempton in February.
He
travelled nicely that day until making a mistake at the first down the back
straight. That seemed to have ended his chances, but he finished with such a
flourish, he would likely have won that race in another furlong or
two…
The
suggestion that day was that he needed a test of stamina – but it was still
surprising to see him contest the NH chase at the Cheltenham festival on his
next run.
Rated only 114 at the time, he seemed likely to be
outclassed in such competition - but far from it…
He
travelled supremely well in the race and was only run out of things close home,
ultimately finishing fourth behind rivals rated stones his superior.
Unfortunately, the handicapper took that run almost at
face value and whacked up his handicap mark by 16lb.
He
has run 6 times since then – 5 over fences – and superficially, that mark seems
to be beyond him. However, I think there have been legitimate reasons for most
of his subsequent defeats (or he’s not run that badly).
Last
time out, for example, on the back of a 4 month absence, he was still travelling
very nicely along side ultimate winner, Gorgehous Liege in the Southern national
at
Fontwell.
He
tired from that point and Gorgehous Liege powered away – but I suspect Adrenalin
Flight will be much straighter today.
And he’ll need to be, because Gorgehous Liege is once again in opposition. However Adrenalin Flight is no less than 17lb better off with him – and is likely to be much better suited by todays quicker ground.
And he’ll need to be, because Gorgehous Liege is once again in opposition. However Adrenalin Flight is no less than 17lb better off with him – and is likely to be much better suited by todays quicker ground.
At
the respective prices, he is a good bet to turn around the form.
The huge weight turn around is due in part to the 9lb rise the Gorgehous Liege got for winning the race – but also because the handicapper has completely relented and returned Adrenalin Flight to the mark he was racing from before Cheltenham (ie. to the same mark he ran off at Kempton).
The huge weight turn around is due in part to the 9lb rise the Gorgehous Liege got for winning the race – but also because the handicapper has completely relented and returned Adrenalin Flight to the mark he was racing from before Cheltenham (ie. to the same mark he ran off at Kempton).
I
think that’s a mistake…
The
application of a first time visor is also an interesting move – and in a race
where a number can be discounted because of poor form or poor stable form, I
think he rates a very good bet.
Aside form Gorgehous Liege, the other one in the race
that I potentially fear, is Reblis…
He
would need to bounce back to form to take this – but that’s not out of the
question, as he’s handicapped to go very
close.
Keep
an eye on him in the market – if not today, then his time will come
soon…
0.5pt win Adrenalin Flight 12/1
There is a fascinating novice chase earlier on the card,
which sees a Deputy Dan take on Saphir De Rheu.
I
suspect that Saphir is the better horse – and will probably be better suited by
todays trip – so in receipt of 5lb, he will take the beating.
However, there is a chance that he won’t be as race sharp as his main rival.
However, there is a chance that he won’t be as race sharp as his main rival.
It
therefore has to be a race to watch rather than play in.
It
should be tremendous contest though, whatever he outcome…
There is a really good quality handicap chase at 1:40 and
I can’t understand why Wilton Milan is available at 5/2…
He
won very easily at Newbury last Friday and without any penalty, is effectively
11lb well in today.
Now
I can accept that last weeks race fell apart a bit – with him the main
beneficiary – but I still expect him to be much shorter today (particular
bearing in mind his trainer – and the 7lb claimer on board).
In
theory, he should be a bet at the prices - but I actually wanted to oppose him
!
The
trouble is, I wanted to oppose him with Filbert – and he’s the one that is being
backed to beat him.
Certainly I can’t see any margin in a price of 4/1,
because even if Wilton Milan does disappoint, there are 3 or 4 others in the
race, with decent claims…
It’s
interesting to see that Xaarcet has been installed as favourite for the 2:50
race…
He
was subject to massive support last time out (11/2 down to 5/4) but came up
short.
He’s
off the same mark today – and now has the benefit of an initial run.
However I don’t think that 2 miles on quickish ground is
what he wants.
I
guess he might be well enough handicapped to win regardless, but I can leave him
alone at 3/1…
Sandown
I
don’t think he will win today, but Jonjo must be rubbing his hands in
anticipation, following the handicappers decision to drop Josies Orders 8lb, on
the back of a disappointing run last time out.
That
was in a decent contest at Ascot and Josies Hill was very well backed that day
(into 7/2 favourite).
However Jonjos stable remain out of form – and I can’t
believe that 2m4f is really what Josies Orders wants anyway.
If
he runs disappointingly again today – drops a few more pounds – then you can
expect the mother of all punts to take place some time during Jan/Feb on heavy
ground over 3 miles.
You have been warned !
You have been warned !
As
for todays race, then Generous Ransom looks quite interesting. He’s run below
expectations twice so far this season - but there were reasons for those
runs.
If
things fall right for him today, he should go close.
There’s an enthralling novice hurdle scheduled to for
1:55.
It’s
all but impossible to chose between the first 4 in the betting – as they all
could be anything.
That said, I wouldn’t completely dismiss the chances of rank outsider, Third Act.
He was thought good enough to run in the Champion bumper at last years Cheltenham festival, so clearly has ability.
That said, I wouldn’t completely dismiss the chances of rank outsider, Third Act.
He was thought good enough to run in the Champion bumper at last years Cheltenham festival, so clearly has ability.
There’s a bit of 50/1 about for him – and he could reward
a tiny bet (probably EW) at that price.
Finally, the 3:00 race is amusing in so much as there are
reasons why non of the runners can win !
Handy Andy (course); Ballyallia Man (handicap mark); Firm
Order (stable form); Cooleking (seasonal debut); Lambro (current form and
ability); Flaming Gorge (form and handicap mark).
Obviously one of them will overcome their issues – with
Cooleking probably looking the best option, at a price of 11/2.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
TVB.
Tips
Early
Exeter 3:20 Adrenalin Flight 0.5pt win 12/1
Late
None
Mentions
Exeter 1:40 Filbert (P )
Exeter 2:50 Xaarcet (C )
Sandown 1:20 Generous Ransom (O )
Sandown 1:55 Third Act (S )
Sandown 3:00 Cooleking (C )
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