There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon, at Ludlow and
Catterick…
On
initial inspection yesterday, I had high hopes for the Ludlow card.
A
trio of class 3 races raised my expectations for a busy day.
However, as the markets gradually took shape, it became
apparent that it wasn’t going to be that busy, after all…
The
horses I fancied (or half fancied), gradually made their way to the tops of the
market – and that’s where most of them now sit.
As a
consequence, we’ve ended up with just a small tip on the day – and it has to be
considered very speculative !
However, if Oyster Shell does consent to race today, I
think we’ll be on a horse with a very good chance, at a very big price (and that
doesn’t happen too often !)
Here’s the rationale.
Ludlow
2:40
If
Oyster Shell had not gone to the track, a week last Monday, I think he would be
second favourite for this race – priced up around 4 or 5/1.
However, he did – and for whatever reason, he disgraced
himself…
Unruly in the paddock, he didn’t want to know when he got
to the post –and pointedly refuse to race.
Now, I have followed this horse for a number of years – and the display was totally out of character. He’s always appeared to be a completely game and genuine horse.
Now, I have followed this horse for a number of years – and the display was totally out of character. He’s always appeared to be a completely game and genuine horse.
So
how do we explain away his antics..?
In
all honesty, I’ve no idea – but what I do know, is that having done it once,
trainer Henry Daly will almost certainly
have taken steps to prevent a repeat,
Ofcourse, he may be wasting his time- the horse’s head
might have gone – and that’s a risk we are taking.
However, if last time was a one off – then we are getting
massive value on a horse with a real chance.
Prior to his antics that day, Oyster Shell was disputing
favouritism for a very tight handicap.
That
was partly down to an excellent run first time out at Wetherby, when he finished
second to Nikos Extra.
He
looked as if he would come on for that run, so really should have been spot on
last time.
Again, ignoring the last ‘run’, Oyster Shell was
previously a progressive horse – whose course and distance win 12 months ago,
showed that he is well suited by todays conditions.
His
handicap mark is on the rise - but that is merely a reflection of his
progressive profile.
Assuming he jumps off OK today, I can see no reason why
he won’t run a very big race.
The
biggest danger is clearly the Venetia Williams trained Vivaccio.
He
was also a course and distance winner last time out (of the same race that
Oyster Shell had won 12 months earlier) but a 10lb rise in the handicap will
make life tougher for him today.
All
things being equal, I don’t think there should be a lot between the pair.
The
fact that one is 6/4 –and the other 20/1 therefore makes me feel we’ve got ample
compensation for the possibility that Oyster Shell might not jump
off.
Let’s just hope he got out of bed on the right side this
morning !!
0.25pt win Oyster Shell 20/1
I
really wanted to tip Kingsmere in the 2:10 race – but I just can’t…
In
truth, I think it’s a 3 horse race (him, Roll the Dice and Gorsky Island) – but
they head the market, and he’s the riskiest of the 3.
It’s
always difficult to know what represent ‘value’ in a case such as
this…
There are 12 horses in the race – so, if they all had
equal chances, it would be 11/1 the field.
I
would be prepared to say that the 3 I’m interested in, would win the race at
least twice as often as the others – so they should be 11/2.
That’s the price on Kingsmere – whilst the other 2 are
shorter.
However, I think it is right that they are shorter, as
they are less risky.
I’d
make Roll the Dice favourite – but 3/1 offers no value.
I’d make Gorsky Island second favourite – but similarly, 3/1 offers no value.
I’d make Gorsky Island second favourite – but similarly, 3/1 offers no value.
I’d
make Kingsmere third favourite – and 11/2 seems about right (maybe 5/1 or
possibly 9/2).
Consequently, I can’t really see an angle on the race –
unless I start looking at 33/1 shots who I feel should be 20/1…
The
positives with Kingsmere are the trip, the ground, the distance, his handicap
mark – and the fact it looks like he might have been targeted at this
race.
The
negatives are his jumping – particularly in a big field – and the opposition (at
least 2 of them).
I
did get very close to tipping him – but ultimately decided it not quite worth
the risk.
You ofcourse, may decide differently…
You ofcourse, may decide differently…
It
was a similar story with Stephanie Francess in the mares hurdle at
1:40.
I
thought I would be able to tip her because I thought she would be neglected in
the betting.
She
ran disappointingly last time out – and is held by Cloudante on form from last
season.
She
also faces a couple of decent rivals in Mystery Drama and Pass the
Time.
On
the flip side, I think her last time out form can be ignored (because she didn’t
handle the ground) and she will be better suited to todays speed
test…
I
honestly thought she would be 6/1 or bigger in the betting, in which case I
would have tipped her.
At
9/2, I see very little margin and so have to pass…
Finally, in the novice handicap chase at 1:10 I would
possibly have been tempted by a speculative play in Six One away at 20/1, if the
stable of Paul Webber was in any form at all
The
horse has shown virtually nothing – but as a consequence, gets to run off a mark
of 90 – and is taking on some seriously limited rivals.
But
I just can’t take a risk on horse coming from a stable in such woeful form
(around 1 winner in the last 70 runners – with most of the horses running
poorly).
Catterick
There is very little worthy of mention at the Yorkshire
track.
The
only thing that really caught my eye (apart from the obvious), were the two Paul
Gilligan horses, Harangue and Churchfield Champ, both returning to the track
just 1 day after performing really well at Southwell.
A
lot will depend on how they have come out of yesterdays exertions. However I‘m
sure this was always the plan – and Gilligan does have an excellent strike rate
with his UK runners.
Certainly Churchfield Champ, who is currently a 16/1
chance for the handicap chase at 2:50, might be worth a risk at that kind of
price…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead.
TVB.
Tips
Early
None
Late
Ludlow 2:40 Oyster Shell 0.25pt win 20/1
Mentions
Ludlow 1:10 Six one Away (S )
Ludlow 1:40 Stephanie Francess (P )
Ludlow 2:10 Kingsmere (P )
Catterick 2:50 Churchfield Champ (C )
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